First TD Bets — Wild Card Monday Slate
Alex Christenson
Everyone loves to bet individual player props for the Super Bowl, adding even more interest to the biggest sporting event of the season. Using our incredible tools at FTN Fantasy, we can analyze each player’s strengths and project where they can see success in the grand finale of the 2024 NFL season.
Here are my thoughts on each individual skill position player for the Philadelphia Eagles for Super Bowl LVII.
Jalen Hurts, QB
Fans still question the ability of the 26-year-old quarterback, but as Jeff Ratcliffe pointed out, all Jalen Hurts does is win. He guided the Eagles to a 14-3 regular-season record and has now led Philadelphia to its fifth Super Bowl appearance in franchise history. Hurts struggled with passing efficiency but still generated substantial rushing production, ranking third among all quarterbacks in rushing yards (752) and first in rushing touchdowns (18), per FTN StatsHub.
One of the pivot points for Philadelphia will be Hurts’ success against the blitz. Kansas City defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo blitzed 33.8% this season, ranking fifth-most among all teams. Hurts greatly improved against the blitz this season, ranking sixth-best among signal-callers with a 68.1% completion percentage, per FTN StatsHub. That’s a significantly higher completion percentage in those situations than his counterpart in this game, Patrick Mahomes (64.9%). The strength of Kansas City’s defense is against the run, where it ranks just middle of the league in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks (14th best). With skeptics still doubting Hurts’ passing ability, look for Kansas City to bring pressure against the Eagles offensive line, providing Hurts with big-play opportunities.
Saquon Barkley, RB
What happens when the most talented running back of our generation gets to reside behind a strong offensive line? Saquon Barkley provided one of the greatest running back seasons in history, with 2,005 rushing yards and 15 total touchdowns. In his three playoff games, Barkley has averaged 147.3 rushing yards per game with five touchdowns.
Our FTN Pace & Playcalling data illustrates the Barkley impact to the Eagles offense. In 2023, Philadelphia passed the ball 55% of the time but flipped that to rushing the ball 55% of the time this season. They outpaced the second-most run-heavy team (Baltimore) by two percentage points. Including the playoffs, Philadelphia utilized a no-huddle attack 25.3% of the time, third-most in the NFL, dramatically up from 18.8% during its 2022 Super Bowl season. Barkley was particularly devastating in the no-huddle attack, ranking first among all running backs in no-huddle DYAR, per FTN StatsHub. The Chiefs need to (somehow) find a way to limit Barkley’s impact, especially when Philadelphia unveils the no-huddle attack.
A.J. Brown, WR
On the surface, this looks like a tough matchup for Philadelphia wide receiver A.J. Brown. Kansas City allowed the fourth-fewest points per game, holding opponents to just 19.4 points per contest, but there are holes in this Kansas City pass defense, particularly against opposing WR1s.
The Chiefs have the seventh-worst DVOA against opposing WR1s, per FTNFantasy. That appears to be contradicted when you find that Kansas City actually allows 12% less fantasy production to its opponent’s leading wide receiver when you account for strength of the opponents. Most teams, however, don’t have a rushing attack led by the most lethal running back in the league, which has led to huge recent performances from Brown.
Brown posted 6 receptions, 86 yards and a touchdown in the NFC Championship victory over Washington and finished the regular season with a touchdown in three straight games. In Philadelphia’s 2022 Super Bowl loss to the Chiefs, Brown posted another impressive line of 6 receptions, 96 yards and a touchdown. The success of the Eagles passing attack will start with their ability to get A.J. Brown involved in the game early.
DeVonta Smith, WR
It has been a disappointing year for Smith, who saw career-lows in targets (89) and receiving yards (833). He has also posted only two 100-yard receiving games throughout the season. Smith has been a solid end-zone target with eight receiving touchdowns, including four over the last four games of the regular season.
Kansas City has been effective at limiting opposing WR2s, ranking inside the top 10 in DVOA to that position. Similar to A.J. Brown, Smith had success against the Chiefs in the 2022 Super Bowl, posting a 7/100 line on nine targets. If Brown draws the majority of defensive attention, Smith’s speed always opens the door for big-play opportunities.
Dallas Goedert, TE
When Dallas Goedert plays, the Eagles win. Philadelphia is a remarkable 11-2 in games Goedert played this season, and the 30-year-old tight end is playing his best football at the most important time. Goedert has four or more receptions in six of his last seven games, and his 85 receiving yards last week were his most since Week 3.
Kansas City has allowed the fourth-most DVOA-adjusted fantasy points to opposing tight ends, equating to 18% more production on average per game. Goedert remains a critical piece to the Eagles offense and often gets favorable defensive matchups because of the attention to Saquon Barkley and A.J. Brown.
