Prime-Time First TD Bets — Sunday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
The NFL has gotten another very important game in the Sunday night slot, as the New York Giants travel to Washington to face the Commanders with heavy playoff implications in this NFC East showdown. It’s not exactly the most explosive slate as far as offensive firepower goes, and these teams tied just two weeks ago. Washington is in a bit of a weird spot because they played New York in Week 13, had a bye week and now have to play New York again, so let’s figure out who we like.
Be sure to check out David Jones’ “General Rules” article for Showdown Strategy and his piece for each game, along with the DFS Showdown Strategy articles for each slate. Additionally, the FTN Live Stream every game night will provide the latest insight for each slate.
NFL DFS Sunday Night Breakdown: New York Giants at Washington Commanders
Commanders -4.5, O/U 40.5 (Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook)
New York Giants Plays for Week 15 DFS – SNF Showdown and Primetime Slates
Notable Injuries – CB Adoree’ Jackson (O), DL Leonard Williams, LB Jihad Ward, WR Richie James, TE Daniel Bellinger (Q)
Quarterback
It’s Week 15, and it’s still weird to see Daniel Jones sitting at 12th in points per game, especially when you consider the receivers he’s been throwing to for much of the season. He’s 10th in points per dropback and is always a threat with the legs since he’s fifth in rushing yards, third in red-zone carries and fourth in rushing touchdowns. He has functioned well under pressure, and that’s vital when you face Washington since they’re tied for the highest pressure rate in football (and could be adding DE Chase Young to the mix this week). Jones sees the passer rating go down but only to 83.0 from 91.6 when pressured, so it’s not too steep of a drop.
One aspect that looks strong for Jones is the play-action game since he’s 10th in frequency and has a 106.6 passer rating when utilizing it. Washington is allowing the 10th-highest passer rating when defending play-action at 111.8 and is also 14th in DVOA against the pass. They also have given up the 13th-most points per game, so the matchup is middle of the road, but not awful for Jones. Lastly, Jones does benefit from the Washington corners playing zone coverage over 65% of the time since Jones has a 106.1 passer rating when faced with zone, the eighth-highest in the league.
Running Back
If I had to go make lineups right now and the slate started in 10 minutes, I would lean toward fading Saquon Barkley on DK. He’s a great player and not on the injury report this week, so the neck issue he dealt with last week seems to be behind him. However, he’s $2,000 more than any other player on the slate. To me, this isn’t the same style of play as Christian McCaffrey was on Thursday when he was worth locking in. Barkley has a ceiling but has only hit 20 or more DK points once since Week 8.
He’s still RB6 in points per game, fourth in rushing yards, 14th in receiving yards and ninth in receptions. He’s been a great player this year, but the expense is real and the matchup is tough as well. With a strong front seven on defense, Washington is fourth in DVOA against the run, fifth in rushing yards per game, fourth in points per game and third in stuff rate. Barkley did hit 19.1 DK points in the first meeting with five receptions helping him out, and he has a 15.1% target share on the season. I think the build looks better without him, but it will certainly be a risky approach.
Wide Receiver
This is probably about as healthy as the Giants are going to get in the receiving corps, but that doesn’t mean it’s the most appealing set of players in the league. New York has played three games since Wan’Dale Robinson tore his ACL, and the scores of the receivers probably aren’t what you would think. Richie James is at 39.2, Isaiah Hodgins is at 35.3 and Darius Slayton is at 30.5. The pricing does not reflect that, and the largest notable difference is the air yards share for Slayton at 47.4%. He’s one target behind James for the lead in this span, and Hodgins is only one behind that, so the ball is being spread around. With the pressure Washington brings, I’m not sure the 16.1-yard aDOT for Slayton is the best fit, and both Hodgins and James have three red-zone targets each.
Hodgins has the highest grade in the WR/CB Matchup Tool and will face Kendall Fuller, who’s allowing 0.22 points per route and a 60% catch rate. On the other side, Slayton tangles with Christian Holmes, but the best matchup may well be in the slot. Holmes allows a 66% catch rate on 43 snaps while Bobby McCain has allowed a 77% catch rate from the slot this year. James is the New York receiver who is in the slot over 80% of the time and has a 6.0-yard aDOT over the past three weeks. Jones is probably going to need to get rid of the ball, so I do prefer James and Hodgins ahead of Slayton, and it doesn’t hurt that they are cheaper.
Tight End
I’m not sure I understand the salary for Daniel Bellinger. He’s been back for two weeks now and has a 13.3% target share, but that’s only been eight targets, and yet he’s more expensive than two of the receivers. When he’s been healthy, he’s earned a target share of 11.1% but has also been TE22 in points per game. Bellinger has a total of 24 receptions and three scores, so he’s likely even been a little lucky there. He also has the least-friendliest matchup in football since the Commanders are first in points per game allowed to the position. The route participation is a concern as well because it is only at 57.3%, and with the havoc the front seven of Washington can bring, he may spend a large portion of his night blocking. I pretty easily want to play the receivers in this spot ahead of Bellinger, and that was before you even factor in the cost.
Defense/Special Teams
The Giants are down to 29th in total DVOA on the year and have fallen to 20th in points per game allowed. Even though they blitz at such a high rate, the pressure rate generated is just 25% and they have 28 sacks on the season. The good news for them is Washington has allowed the sixth-most sacks on the season with 15 takeaways. Washington is also just 25th in points per game, and the Giants did score eight points in the first matchup. They’re a fine play, but they aren’t the cheapest either. I’m fine with them if you roll with a low-scoring script.
Kicker
In the first meeting, both kickers matched each other with nine points, and Graham Gano is only 15th in attempts on the year. He’s made 22 kicks and 13 of them have come from 40 yards or more, including five from 50 yards or further. The biggest issue could be if the Giants can move the ball effectively since Washington is only fourth in yards allowed per game, but that likely means taking points any time they’re in range. Both kickers are going to be well in play for this contest.
Washington Commanders Plays for Week 15 SNF DFS – SNF Showdown and Primetime Slates
Notable Injuries – DE Chase Young, CB Benjamin St-Juste (Q)
Quarterback
He’s been fine in his starts this season, and the Commanders are in the hunt for a playoff spot, but Taylor Heinicke hasn’t exactly been worth playing for fantasy. He’s only QB25 in points per game and 21st in points per dropback, while the volume isn’t going to save him if it stays in a neutral script. Washington is only 29th in pass rate in that scenario (and the Giants are 30th), and he’s only thrown nine touchdown passes in seven games. Arguably the most important facet when you face the Giants is how you can deal with a blitz since they are at the highest rate in the league at 39% and the next-closest team is 32%.
Heinicke has been blitzed close to 25% of the time and has a 97.2 passer rating and a 65.4% completion rate, which is pretty strong. He does crumble under pressure with a 31.4 passer rating, so the offensive line and Heinicke himself recognizing when and where the blitz comes from is going to be extremely important. Provided the offense can handle the blitz, there are going to be opportunities because Heinicke is at his best when he’s facing man coverage. His attempts are further behind other quarterbacks, but he’s first in completion rate (66.1%) and fourth in passer rating (108.5). The Giants are over 50% in man coverage from their corners, and I generally know who I want to stack him with from the receiving corps. New York is 15th in points allowed per game and just 26th in DVOA against the pass.
Running Back
This backfield has been a nightmare to figure out since Brian Robinson and Antonio Gibson have been active together. Since Robinson made his return in Week 5, he’s had 147 attempts, nine targets and 15 red-zone attempts, while Gibson has 86 attempts, 35 targets and 14 red-zone attempts. Even though he hasn’t had the most volume, Gibson has scored 11.5 points per game in that span and Robinson is at 9.6 points per game, so the prices possibly should be reversed. The biggest issue is predicting it week-to-week because there have been matchups that look like they’ll favor one back but the other one goes off.
Both backs are outside the top 30 in yards per touch and yards created per touch, but Robinson does have the lead in rushing yards just barely. I’m going to lean toward Robinson here because the Giants are 31st in yards per attempt allowed, 31st in stuff rate, 31st in DVOA against the run and 30th in rushing yards allowed per game. They are consistent in their terribleness, so if we can “know” that Robinson is going to get the carries, he’s the better play on paper and you hope he finds the end zone.
Wide Receiver
We’ll get to Terry McLaurin in a minute, but we’re going to talk about the duo of Curtis Samuel and Jahan Dotson first. The rookie came back in Week 10 and now has had the bye week to play catch-up since he missed a chunk of the season on IR. Since he’s come back, both receivers have played right about 62% of the snaps, they each have 13 targets and Dotson has scored two more points than Samuel. The thing about this is the snaps have trended up for Dotson in the previous two games, as he climbed to 71.4% and saw 10 of his 13 targets, so it would appear that he is taking over as the No. 2 in the offense.
That would make plenty of sense considering the Commanders spent a high pick on him, and in only 35 targets, Dotson has found the end zone five times. The matchup against Nick McCloud looks pretty enjoyable since he’s allowed a 68% catch rate and 0.28 points per route, while Samuel will see Darnay Holmes out of the slot. Holmes is at 0.24 points per route but only has allowed a 60% catch rate. I plan on playing a lot more Dotson than Samuel.
Don’t get anything twisted, the top option in the offense is still McLaurin with a 23.1% target share and a 38.2% air yards share. He’s turned that into WR21 in points per game, eighth in yards, 21st in receptions and fifth in unrealized air yards. The matchup is not the best he’s ever going to see against Fabian Moreau since he’s only given up a 56% catch rate, but the 0.25 points per route are not the scariest mark we’ll see. I think DK gave us a small discount on the salary for McLaurin, and the double-stack with McLaurin and Dotson looks appealing.
Tight End
Logan Thomas is still only TE33 in points per game despite being back in the lineup for multiple weeks now, and the 12% target share when he’s been healthy just hasn’t given him very much to do. He’s turned 40 targets into just 24 receptions on the year and has just one touchdown on the back of six red-zone targets to go along with only four deep targets. The Giants are only 23rd in points per game allowed to the position, so that does help him a little bit. But at the same time, he’s cleared 7.5 DK points just twice all season. John Bates and Cole Turner are here as well, but they have a combined 31 targets with target shares under 5.5%. These players won’t be a priority ahead of a kicker or even a defense this week.
Defense/Special Teams
Part of the reason I’m not as big on the Giants defense is that the Commanders are $1,000 cheaper and are up to ninth in total DVOA. They are also tied for the highest pressure rate generated, and even with a 7% sack rate, wreaking havoc on the Giants is possible with every dropback since they allow a pressure rate of 33%, tied for the second highest with the Washington offense.
New York is also 30th in sacks allowed, so it’s a strong spot for Washington to get home, not to mention they only allow 19.7 points per game. Only 10 teams in the NFL are under 20 points per game allowed, and they’ve tacked on 15 takeaways. I don’t see much of a reason they should be cheaper than New York.
Kicker
Joey Slye isn’t near the top of the list as far as attempts on the season with just 23, good for 20th. However, nine of his 20 made field goals have come from at least 40 yards out, and he’s hit 19 of his 21 extra points. It wouldn’t be a big shock to see this game be tilted toward the defenses a little more, but that could mean stalled drives and coaches taking points whenever they can. The Giants are a bend-don’t-break defense, as they rank 26th in yards per game allowed but fifth in red-zone conversion allowed, a good mix for a kicker.
