Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
DraftKings pricing for Week 1 of the NFL season is live, and it feels like Christmas has come early. With much left to be decided before the season kicks off, here are some players that stood out after peeking at DraftKings' pricing.
Carson Wentz, QB, Philadelphia Eagles
(QB8, $6,300)
I know it's been a minute, but remember when Wentz exploded for 313 passing yards and three touchdowns in Week 1? I'm sure the Washington football team does. Wentz can pick apart this pass defense in several ways. A starring trio of Fabian Moreau, Jimmy Moreland and Kendall Fuller, who all allowed 102.8 or worse passer ratings, won't scare anybody away from airing it out. If Wentz does not attack the corner play, he can also lean on a defense that allowed the fourth-most DK points per game to tight ends.
Teddy Bridgewater, QB, Carolina Panthers
(QB13, $5,900)
Joe Brady season could begin with a bang versus the Las Vegas Raiders. The Panthers will push the pace in this game versus a pass defense that lacks difference makers on paper. The offseason additions of Prince Amukamara and rookie Damon Arnette aren’t enough to move the needle here. The Raiders allowed the eighth-most passing yards (4,355) and fourth-most passing touchdowns (33) last season.
Tyrod Taylor, QB, LosAngeles Chargers
(QB20, 5,600)
Taylor is buried in the deep recesses of quarterback purgatory on DK. Taylor is in the same pricing tier as low volume passers in bad matchups (Baker Mayfield vs. BAL) and backup quarterbacks (Jameis Winston). The Bengals defense still projects to be among the league’s cellar-dwelling units. The last time Taylor was Anthony Lynn’s starting quarterback, he made use of his legs and arm strength. Taylor averaged 4.6 deep balls per game. He finds himself in a ceiling spot versus a team that allowed the eighth-most explosive runs and the most explosive passes in the NFL last season.
Miles Sanders, RB, Philadelphia Eagles
(RB10, $6,300)
Based on his potential workload both on the ground and through the air, Miles Sanders is mispriced. The Washington football team returns a starting defensive line that couldn’t stop a light breeze. Washington ranked 27th in open field yards, per Football Outsiders. Sanders could have a slate breaking outing versus a team that allowed the third-most DK points per game, second-most rushing yards, fifth-most receptions and fifth-most receiving yards to running backs. Many could look to play Chris Carson vs. ATL over Sanders for $100 less.
Jonathan Taylor/Marlon Mack, RB, Indianapolis Colts
(RB17, $5,700 / RB21, $5,300)
The Colts’ primary ball-carrier job is shrouded in uncertainty by their head coach, who loves to talk up his entire depth chart this time of the year. Any greater clarity of the starting rusher here will make him a value play during Week 1. Either back is capable of ripping multiple long runs versus this defense. Last year, the Jaguars allowed the second-most rushing yards and were ranked 29th in explosive runs allowed.
John Brown, WR, Buffalo Bills
(WR27, $5,600)
John Brown can run circles around this Jets secondary in Week 1. The Jets still boast a tandem of below-average outside corners with Pierre Desir and Arthur Maulet. Desir and Maulet both allowed a 63.2% or higher catch rate last season. Brown can leave them in the dust, as Desir and Maulet both run 4.59 or slower 40s. Anyone looking to double-stack Josh Allen should be staring at Brown and not Cole Beasley. Brian Poole is easily the Jets' best corner. Poole has been a revelation since acclimating to the New York man-heavy scheme, allowing only a 52.9% catch rate and a 77.6 passer rating last season out of the slot.
Anthony Miller, WR, Chicago Bears
(WR35, $5,000)
Anthony Miller had himself a massive turkey day last year versus Justin Coleman in the slot. Miller turned 13 targets into nine receptions and 130 receiving yards. If Miller begins the season with last year’s stretch run usage, he could fill up the boxscore again. Coleman struggled all last season, allowing a 59.8% catch rate and six touchdowns in his coverage.
Hayden Hurst, TE, Atlanta Falcons
(TE10, $4300)
A tight end versus Seattle’s zone coverage has become close to an every-week play. The Atlanta Falcons will again be among the league’s leaders in passing volume this year. Hooper played nearly 60% of his snaps in the slot last year. Expecting similar usage for Hurst is not a stretch at all. While the Seahawks newly acquired safety Jamal Adams is of note here, he’s not covered the slot more than 12.9% in any of his last three seasons while playing for the Jets.
