NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
Welcome to Sleepers, Busts and Bold Predictions for the 2023 fantasy football season. All summer, our analysts, two at a time, will preview all 32 NFL teams for the upcoming season. We’ll pick a pair of sleepers, a pair of busts and a pair of bold predictions. Sometimes they’ll be the same pick! Sometimes they will directly disagree! And that’s fine. Today: The Philadelphia Eagles.
Below, Nick Makowitz and Michael Dolan tackle the Eagles, starting with their picks in “The Answers,” then expanding on their picks in “The Explanation.”
2023 Sleepers, Busts & Bold Predictions: Philadelphia Eagles
The Answers
Favorite Sleeper
Makowitz: Rashaad Penny
Dolan: Rashaad Penny
Biggest Bust
Makowitz: D’Andre Swift
Dolan: D’Andre Swift
Bold Prediction
Makowitz: Dallas Goedert Is a Top-3 TE
Dolan: Jalen Hurts Leads the League in Total Yards
The Explanations
Sleepers
Makowitz: Rashaad Penny
Another year, another season lost due to injury for Rashaad Penny. At this point, he’s a perpetual sleeper. Until he puts together a full, healthy season, his ADP will bake in his abnormally high risk of injury, but drafters will still be willing to take the chance because we’ve seen him be great – he averaged 19 fantasy points per game when getting double-digit carries in 2021 and averages 5.7 yards per carry for his career.
Throughout his career, Penny has been extremely efficient, and now he gets the chance to run behind perhaps the league’s best offensive line. In 2022, Seahawks running backs averaged a middling 1.5 yards per carry before contact compared to the Eagles backs’ elite 1.8 yards. On top of benefiting from a better push up front, Penny should be able to break big runs as he always has. Per FTN’s advanced rushing data, last season, he led all backs with 50-plus carries in yards after contact per rush (4.2), and he was one of just three backs to rank in the 75th percentile or better in YAC per rush, forced missed tackles per rush and breakaway run percentage.
In other words, Penny has always shown up on paper as a truly elite runner even with average offensive lines. If he stays healthy, gets the early down work and some goal line opportunities in Philly, he could replicate Miles Sanders’ double-digit touchdowns and be a bona fide fantasy starter.
Dolan: Rashaad Penny
In 2022, the Eagles ranked fifth in the league in rushing yards (2,509). While they had (and will continue to have) an impressive aerial attack to balance out the offense, there’s no indication they’re going around from the ground game anytime soon. Following Miles Sanders’ career year in 2022, the Eagles let him walk in free agency, and Rashaad Penny was the first name they brought in to replace him. While many think D’Andre Swift will be the back to roster in Philadelphia this year, I believe Penny is a better fit for the offense and will be the back to own come season’s end.
The issue for Penny over the years has never been talent. He’s averaged a ridiculous 5.7 YPC in his career and posted a whopping 6.1 YPC in 2022 prior to injury. Put that efficiency behind the best offensive line in the league, and you’ve got a recipe for something special.
Of course, the main issue with Penny is his health. The most games he’s played in a season was 14, and that was all the way back in his rookie year (2018). While banking on a healthy Penny is a risky proposition, at cost the upside is easily worth the risk. Plus, the fact that he’ll likely avoid a workhorse role in Philadelphia could improve his chances of staying healthy. Even if he’s just the 1A in this backfield rather than the top dog, that should be enough to easily outperform his current ADP that has him outside the top 40 RBs.
Busts
Makowitz: D’Andre Swift
Like Rashaad Penny, Swift impresses with his ability to evade tacklers and break big runs, but his role in the Eagles’ offense feels a bit less clear. It’s possible that he steals early-down work from Penny, but they’ll likely split it at a minimum. It’s also possible that he is the primary pass-catching back, but Eagles’ running backs saw the lowest target share (12%) of any running back group in the NFL last season. He also sits third at best in the goal line pecking order behind Penny and Jalen Hurts. So, at best, Swift’s role consists of intermittent rushing work between the 20s, a 10-15% target share in a low-volume passing offense and goal-line opportunities that are few and far between.
He’s a great athlete and home run hitter, but on days when he doesn’t break the big 40-yard run, what’s his floor? Even on days when he does break the big run, what’s his ceiling if he doesn’t take it all the way to the house? I don’t think Swift – or anyone on the Eagles – will severely disappoint relative to ADP, but Penny probably has more league-winning upside thanks to having the goal line role in a split backfield.
Dolan: D’Andre Swift
D’Andre Swift’s status in the bust category obviously comes as a package deal with Penny’s status as a sleeper. While the Eagles’ offense could be good enough to support two backs for fantasy purposes, there are simply too many mouths to feed to justify Swift’s current cost. Penny should be the go-to guy on early downs, and the goal line work is likely going to be a roulette wheel that causes frustration for fantasy managers. Swift will likely be the go-to passing down back, but at least historically speaking, that hasn’t been a prominent role in Philadelphia.
I’ve been a big Swift fan for a while now, but he’s simply not a great fit in the Eagles’ offense. Receiving work has been Swift’s bread and butter for fantasy these past few years, and I worry that he won’t have the opportunity to showcase that more than a few times per game in Philadelphia. You may be hoping for a breakout year now that Swift’s in an elite offense, but the more likely scenario is he’s a rich man’s version of Kenneth Gainwell – more of a role player who specializes in the passing game and two-minute offense. That role will provide value for the Eagles, but I’m not sure it’ll lead to surplus value in fantasy football.
Bold Predictions
Makowitz: Dallas Goedert Is a Top 3 TE
Dallas Goedert finished as the TE12 in 2022 despite playing in just 12 games, and he ranked fifth in points per game. Before injury caused him to miss Weeks 11-15, Goedert averaged five receptions for 60 yards and 10.4 fantasy points per game, which would have made him the TE3 for the full season. Currently, he’s being drafted as the TE6.
Goedert’s biggest hindrance as a fantasy asset has always been his lack of touchdowns. If touchdowns only counted as one point instead of six, Goedert would’ve ranked third in points per game for the full season and been neck-and-neck with Mark Andrews for the TE2 spot. That is, of course, not how fantasy football works, but it illustrates that if Goedert benefits from any touchdown luck at all, he’s closer to Andrews than he is to the rest of the pack he’s being drafted beside.
He’s the third receiving option for the Eagles, but he did register the highest route participation of any tight end in the NFL last season, finished in the 90th percentile in yards per route run (1.95) and ranked second at the position in YAC per reception (7.6) per FTN’s advanced receiving data. He’s involved, talented and has shown he can do it for long stretches. He just needs health and a couple touchdowns.
Dolan: Jalen Hurts Leads the League in Total Yards
You don’t see “total yards” as a common stat for quarterbacks, largely because it’s typically the top passers who receive the most headlines. For example, last year Patrick Mahomes led the league in passing + rushing yards, but that was almost entirely because he led the league in passing yards (5,250), not because of the 358 yards he added on the ground. Last year, Jalen Hurts was Mahomes No. 1 competitor for MVP honors, and he likely would have eclipsed the 5,000 total yard mark had he played a full 17 games (he was on pace for 5,055).
These numbers would have still finished behind Mahomes, but that may not be the case in 2023. As an organization, the Eagles are committed to building a dominant passing attack, and I think we’ll see them take another step toward that goal in 2023. Hurts made fantastic strides in 2022, and his work ethic indicates he’s only going to keep improving – especially as a passer. Another step forward in this area with a dominant supporting cast could mean Hurts finishes in the 4,500- to 5,000-yard range as a passer this year. Now that he’s making the big bucks as the face of the franchise, he may get scaled back a bit as a rusher, but I’d still expect at least around 750 yards on the ground if he plays a full 17 games. The Eagles should once again dominate on offense this year, and Hurts being at the center of it will once again prove extremely fruitful for fantasy managers.
