NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
Welcome to Sleepers, Busts and Bold Predictions for the 2023 fantasy football season. All summer, our analysts, two at a time, will preview all 32 NFL teams for the upcoming season. We’ll pick a pair of sleepers, a pair of busts and a pair of bold predictions. Sometimes they’ll be the same pick! Sometimes they will directly disagree! And that’s fine. Today: The Jacksonville Jaguars
Below, Dan Fornek and Jeremy Popielarz tackle the Jaguars, starting with their picks in “The Answers,” then expanding on their picks in “The Explanation.”
2023 Sleepers, Busts & Bold Predictions: Jacksonville Jaguars
The Answers
Favorite Sleeper
Fornek: Christian Kirk
Popielarz: Tank Bigsby
Biggest Bust
Fornek: Travis Etienne
Popielarz: Travis Etienne
Bold Prediction
Fornek: Trevor Lawrence finishes as a top-3 quarterback
Popielarz: Christian Kirk outscores Calvin Ridley in fantasy
The Explanations
Sleepers
Fornek: Christian Kirk
The Christian Kirk signing during the 2022 offseason was almost universally regarded as an overpay on social media. Undaunted by the opinions of strangers, Kirk proceeded to make everyone look like an idiot, setting career-highs in every receiving category on his way to a WR16 finish with 14.2 points per game (minimum 10 games played). As we look to 2023, Kirk is once again being undervalued in early fantasy drafts, going off the board as WR33.
Yes, the Jaguars upgraded Marvin Jones Jr. with a player who should earn a more significant target share in Calvin Ridley. However, that doesn’t necessarily mean that the biggest chunk of the passing attack will be siphoned away from Kirk. Jones’ departure opened up 81 targets in the passing attack, and the combination of Kirk (133 targets), Zay Jones (121 targets) and Evan Engram (98 targets) accounted for 61% of the team’s target share in 2023. There’s more than enough there for Kirk to hit value as the high-volume slot receiver and Ridley to carve out a significant role in the passing attack.
Early fantasy drafters are drafting under the assumption that Ridley, a player who hasn’t played meaningful football since October 2021, will immediately show no rust and dominate the target share in Jacksonville. However, there’s a decent chance that it takes Ridley time to adjust to NFL football again, leading Kirk to see a similar workload throughout the season. In that case, fantasy managers are getting a top-20 wide receiver for an early discount.
Popielarz: Tank Bigsby
There is a lot of fantasy buzz around this ascending Jaguars roster after an impressive first year under head coach Doug Pederson in 2022. I believe the buzz is real, I think we may get two valuable fantasy running backs out of this roster this year. Rookie Tank Bigsby is a player I have my eye on this season, as he is much more than a backup. At Auburn, he produced 3351 scrimmage yards and led the Tigers yearly for the past three seasons. He also is coming off back-to-back 10-touchdown seasons. The numbers are not crazy, but he was their best player every game and it was clear on tape.
The Jaguars primarily leaned on second-year player Travis Etienne last year, who saw 49% of the teams rushing attempts. He was highly productive on a per-touch basis, but struggled in the red zone. This is an area I think Bigsby can flourish, as he created 68% of his rushing yards after contact in his career. He also forced 0.29 missed tackles per attempt at Auburn. Bigsby also caught 64 passes for 448 yards, and we also have seen Etienne struggle mightly at the NFL level as a pass catcher. Now, I do think this is a split backfield and neither of these players will produce top-12 numbers, but there is a path to Bisgby finishing inside the top 24 fantasy running backs.
Busts
Fornek: Travis Etienne
A successful 2022 season, combined with a Jacksonville offense that we expect to ascend, has Travis Etienne being drafted as RB13 ahead of the 2023 season. While Etienne is a young, explosive, former first-round pick running back, this lofty ADP may be a tad too optimistic for Etienne next season.
Etienne lived on big plays in 2022, resulting in a boom-or-bust profile for fantasy football. According to FTN’s Weekly Fantasy Finishes tool, Etienne had four top-12 finishes at the running back position last season, including three top-6 weeks. Unfortunately, when he wasn’t finishing in the top 12, he was barely registering as a fantasy asset. Etienne had eight weeks with finishes outside the top 24 as well.
Coming out of Clemson, everyone expected Etienne to function as a high-upside pass-catching running back. That hasn’t come to fruition so far. Etienne earned just 45 targets last season, catching 35 passes for 316 yards. Etienne’s explosive playmaking flashed in the run game (7.3% of his rushing attempts went for 15+ yards, 12th among running backs) but struggled once his team got inside the 10 (1.9 yards per attempt). The team drafted Tank Bigsby in the third round of the 2023 draft, a more traditional rusher who will likely siphon the red-zone work, capping Etienne’s upside.
Sure, Etienne can carve out a more significant role in the passing attack and hit on his high draft position. But if that doesn’t manifest, then Etienne will have to find ways to get in the end zone more against legitimate competition for the touches that score touchdowns. That will make it difficult for him to hit on, or exceed, his summer ADP.
Popielarz: Travis Etienne
After the James Robinson trade, the Jaguars leaned on Etienne, resulting in a 49% rushing share. However, this was more by default than preference. Etienne was highly productive on a per-touch basis, with his 5.1 yards per attempt hovering near the league’s top running backs. His 0.26 missed tackles per attempt was tied for third among players over 150 rushing attempts. Sadly, he was terrible in the red zone seeing 43 rushing attempts, with a robust 13 attempts coming inside the 5-yard line (only three converted for touchdowns). This 23% goal-line conversion rate was 34th among players who had at least five attempts inside the 5-yard line. He left a lot to be desired as a pass catcher, dropping 8% of his targets, one of the highest drop rates among running backs. This all resulted in an RB17 finish with 205.1 PPR points, which is solid but not great.
Heading into 2023 the Jaguars added Tank Bigsby and D’Enrest Johnson to the already-rostered group of Travis Etienne, Snoop Conner, and Ja’Mycal Hasty. This paired with Pederson’s coaching history leads me to believe we will see a split backfield, with Etienne struggling to see a 49% rushing share again. Additionally, there is a path where he losses the more valuable touches to Bigbsy in the red zone. I believe Etienne can be a solid RB2 for fantasy but he will not reach the top-12 ceiling so many people are hoping for in this offense.
Bold Predictions
Fornek: Trevor Lawrence Finishes as a top-3 Quarterback
It would have been fair to question Trevor Lawrence after a tumultuous rookie season with Urban Meyer as his head coach. However, a change in coaching (and the addition of some weapons) helped Lawrence remind us why he was one of the most prolific college quarterbacks and a slam-dunk first overall pick in the 2021 NFL draft.
Lawrence threw 18 fewer passes in his second season but still had nearly 500 more passing yards (4,113), 13 more passing touchdowns (25) and cut his interceptions in half (8). Lawrence also was used more effectively on the goal line, increasing his rushing touchdowns from two to five in his second season. The Jaguars offense remains largely the same, with the important addition of Ridley to hopefully assume the top receiver role in 2023.
Lawrence averaged a solid 17.9 fantasy points per game in his second season and had eight top-10 finishes at the quarterback position, including a QB1 overall finish in Week 14 against the Dallas Cowboys. It stands to reason that Lawrence will continue to develop in his second year in the offense with a legitimate top-receiving option to go with Kirk, Zay Jones and Engram in the offense. Lawrence has all of the tools to finish as a top-3 quarterback, especially with the array of red-zone weapons at his disposal.
Popielarz: Christian Kirk Putscores Calvin Ridley in Fantasy
Christian Kirk is coming off a career year with 1108 yards and 8 receiving touchdowns. He also posted his best fantasy finish in PPR scoring, finishing as the WR12 with 14.2 PPR points per game (21st among all wideouts). Kirk was targeted a team-high 133 times on 22% of his routes, tied for the team lead with Zay Jones. He also led the Jaguars with 1210 air yards while catching 11 of his 19 deep targets per FTN Data. In the red zone he was even more reliable, catching 45% of his targets.
The Jaguars had four players over 80 targets last year, so there is plenty of room for new addition Calvin Ridley. Ridley is fresh off a year of suspension and the year prior he battled injury and mental health concerns forcing him to miss a major part of the 2021 season. Therefore, which Calvin Ridley are we getting? He is now 28 years old and hasn’t played a snap in the NFL since October 24, 2021. Even at that point, he had played in five games but only amassed 281 yards and a mere two touchdowns as the overall WR41. On the flip side, he was the WR21 in points per game with 14.2 FPPG. If we get anything other than the 2020 version of Ridley where he was the WR5 in fantasy football, there is a good chance Kirk outproduces him in 2023.
