Sleepers, Busts and Bold Predictions: The 2023 Cleveland Browns

Welcome to Sleepers, Busts and Bold Predictions for the 2023 fantasy football season. All summer, our analysts, two at a time, will preview all 32 NFL teams for the upcoming season. We’ll pick a pair of sleepers, a pair of busts and a pair of bold predictions. Sometimes they’ll be the same pick! Sometimes they will directly disagree! And that’s fine. Today: The Cleveland Browns.

Below, Dan Fornek and Sam Choudhury tackle the Browns, starting with their picks in “The Answers,” then expanding on their picks in “The Explanation.”

2023 Sleepers, Busts & Bold Predictions: Cleveland Browns

The Answers

Favorite Sleeper

Fornek: Elijah Moore
Choudhury: Jerome Ford

Biggest Bust

Fornek: David Njoku
Choudhury: Donovan Peoples-Jones

Bold Prediction

Fornek: Deshaun Watson finishes as a top-3 QB
Choudhury: Nick Chubb leads the league in rush yards and rush TDs

The Explanations

Sleepers

Fornek: Elijah Moore

For most, the popular Browns’ sleeper will be running back Jerome Ford (still available at an absurdly low RB52 price tag!). However, Ford’s name is starting to pick up steam in the fantasy space, so I will pivot to another player who has big sleeper potential: WR Elijah Moore.

The Browns traded for Moore this offseason after he had a disappointing second year that saw him play more games but finish with fewer targets (65), receptions (37), receiving yards (446) and receiving touchdowns (1). While the quarterback play in New York was rough last season, Moore found a way to get into coach Robert Saleh’s doghouse early in the season and was hindered by it.

Now Moore finds himself in an offense with a clear upgrade at quarterback (Deshaun Watson) and on a team that is starving for a complementary receiver with Amari Cooper. The third-year receiver isn’t very big, but he wins on his quickness and agility and has flashed the ability to make plays after the catch with the ball in his hand. Cleveland seems to understand that given that they have used Moore in the backfield during OTAs to get him space to operate.

Elijah Moore is currently being drafted as the WR46 on platforms like Underdog, likely due to the number of people who got burned by Moore’s lack of production in 2022. He will have a fantastic opportunity to outpace that pricing in a new situation tied to a quarterback like Deshaun Watson. 

Choudhury: Jerome Ford

The Browns’ 2022 fifth-round running selection out of UC, saw minimal playing time last season, primarily operating as a special team player. However, this offseason, Cleveland let Kareem Hunt and D’Ernest Johnson walk in free agency, leaving Ford as the next man up behind Nick Chubb. Over the past three seasons, the RB2 in Cleveland has averaged over 10 touches per game and has been viable as a usable flex. This bodes well for Ford’s 2023 outlook, as he should have a standalone value with contingent upside if Chubb were to go down. 

Busts

Fornek: David Njoku

David Njoku was solid in 2022, finishing the season as the TE8 in PPR points per game with 10.1. The veteran tight end had 80 targets, 58 receptions, 628 receiving yards and four receiving touchdowns in just 14 games played. That production, combined with the excitement of a full season of Deshaun Watson has Njoku pushed up to the TE9 in early fantasy drafts, which seems lofty when you dig into his 2022 season.

In nine games without Watson at quarterback, Njoku averaged 5.8 targets, 4.6 receptions and 46.4 receiving yards per game. He also caught two touchdown passes. He also had six games with at least seven targets and five games with at least five receptions during that stretch. In five games with Watson, Njoku saw a similar workload (5.6 targets and 3.4 receptions), but his production took a hit (32.8 receiving yards per game). The veteran tight end had at least five targets in four of five games with Watson but only had more than five receptions just once.

Watson will come into 2023 with a full offseason to prepare as a starter and more familiarity with Cleveland’s passing weapons. Six of the top seven target earners in 2022 return and the team added Elijah Moore to the passing attack. There may just be too many targets in this offense for Njoku to justify his lofty ADP.

Choudhury: Donovan Peoples-Jones

Donovan Peoples-Jones broke out last season, logging a career-high in targets (96), receptions (61) and receiving yards (839), and matching his career-best in touchdowns (3). He fared well as the WR2 in Cleveland, with no other receiver logging more than 214 yards. This should change in 2023 after the Browns traded for former 2021 second-round pick Elijah Moore this offseason and spent third-roundcapital(No. 74 overall) on Cedric Tillman. Moore should operate in the slot, leaving Peoples-Jones and Tillman in a competition for the outside receiver opposite Amari Cooper. Peoples-Jones’ numbers will likely dip with more target competition and could get phased out of the offense, if Cleveland decides to give Tillman meaningful playing time throughout the season. Peoples-Jones is entering his fourth season in the league and slated to hit free agency in 2024. 

Bold Predictions

Fornek: Deshaun Watson Finishes as a Top-3 QB

Deshaun Watson expectedly looked rusty in his return from not playing football for over a year. In six games with Cleveland, Watson completed just 58% of his passes for 1,102 yards and seven touchdowns with five interceptions. According to FTN’s advanced player stats, Watson had a bottom-five yards per attempt (6.5), finishing tied with Davis Mills and Baker Mayfield and ahead of just Tom Brady (6.4), Carson Wentz (6.4), Kenny Pickett (6.2) and Kyler Murray (6.1). So how do we go from that to a top-three quarterback finish?

As stated above, Deshaun Watson enters the 2023 season knowing that he will be the starting quarterback in Week 1 and with a level of comfort with the team’s top returning starters. The team also added Elijah Moore to give a dynamic receiving weapon out of the slot. This is a bet that we see Watson return closer to the mean as a passer. From 2018 to 2020, Watson averaged a 68.7% completion percentage, 8.3 yards per pass attempt, a 5.5% touchdown rate and a 1.8% interception rate. Watson also averaged 469.3 rushing yards and five rushing touchdowns per season during that stretch. In 2022, Watson had just 6.5 yards per pass attempt, a 4.1% touchdown rate and a 2.9% interception rate. He had just 175 rushing yards and one touchdown as well.

The Browns figure to evolve into a more balanced offensive approach (after years of being run-heavy). The team averaged 31.2 passing attempts per game with Jacoby Brissett in 2022 and 28.3 with Watson knocking off the rust the final six weeks of the season. A more efficient Watson with solid weapons behind a good offensive line has the makings of a quarterback who can finish in the top three, especially when you figure in a return of Watson’s rushing ability.

Choudhury: Nick Chubb Leads the League in Rush Yards and Rush TDs

Since becoming the full-time starter in 2019, Nick Chubb has been one of the most consistent running back in the league, logging 1,000-plus rushing yards and 8-plus rushing touchdowns in four straight seasons. Last season, Chubb logged a career-high in carries (302) and rushing yards (1,525), matching his career-best in rushing touchdowns (12). He finished third in the NFL in rushing yards and fifth in rushing touchdowns. With Kareem Hunt and D’Ernest Johnson out of the picture in 2023, Chubb should see an uptick in volume, setting up for a monstrous 2023 season. I predict Chubb will take home the rushing title next season, while leading the league in rushing touchdowns.