NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
Welcome to Sleepers, Busts and Bold Predictions for the 2023 fantasy football season. All summer, our analysts, two at a time, will preview all 32 NFL teams for the upcoming season. We’ll pick a pair of sleepers, a pair of busts and a pair of bold predictions. Sometimes they’ll be the same pick! Sometimes they will directly disagree! And that’s fine. Today: The Baltimore Ravens.
Below, Michael Dolan and Daniel Kelley tackle the Ravens, starting with their picks in “The Answers,” then expanding on their picks in “The Explanation.”
2023 Sleepers, Busts & Bold Predictions: Baltimore Ravens
The Answers
Favorite Sleeper
Dolan: J.K. Dobbins
Kelley: Keaton Mitchell
Biggest Bust
Dolan: All the Receivers
Kelley: Rashod Bateman
Bold Prediction
Dolan: Lamar Jackson Is (Once Again) the QB1
Kelley: No Top-200 Ravens Skill Player Beats ADP
The Explanations
Sleepers
Dolan: J.K. Dobbins
J.K. Dobbins isn’t so much a sleeper as he is a breakout. Most know his name by now, but largely due to injury, he’s yet to see the explosion of fantasy points many envisioned for the young back. He was insanely efficient during his rookie year (2020) as he averaged 6.0 yards per carry before missing all of 2021 due to a knee injury. That injury lingered into 2022 where he only played 8 games, but despite the injury visibly slowing him down, he still averaged an impressive 5.7 yards per carry.
Entering 2023, Dobbins is fully healthy and in line for a breakout year. As long as Lamar Jackson is under center the Ravens are going to possess a potent run game, and Dobbins has the talent and opportunity to be a primary beneficiary. Sure, he’s not going to be a high-volume pass catcher, and Jackson may steal a few goal-line touchdowns, but sometimes the best thing to do in fantasy football is to avoid overcomplicating things. He’s the lead back on a high-powered rushing attack, who’s also extremely talented. Don’t overthink it, and draft Dobbins at cost in 2023, because that cost is certainly going be higher when we’re all drafting again in 2024.
Kelley: Keaton Mitchell
Austin Ekeler had 38 receptions over his final seven games of 2022. Gus Edwards has 34 receptions … since high school. That’s five years in college and now five years in the NFL. Starter J.K. Dobbins has been a better receiver (especially in college), but he’s still averaging under 1.4 targets per game as an NFL player. Now with Todd Monken calling the shots on offense, the Ravens have expressed a desire to (a) speed things up and (b) get the backs involved in the passing game. And who was the first back acquired after Monken’s hire? UDFA Keaton Mitchell out of East Carolina. Mitchell averaged almost 10 yards per reception in three years in college. Drops are a problem, but he has a shot at being the team’s passing-down back right away, especially if Dobbins’ contract issues persist. He’s not a fantasy starter, but he’s available completely free in drafts and could offer sporadic value in 2023.
Busts
Dolan: All the Receivers
Adding Odell Beckham and Zay Flowers, plus Rashod Bateman returning from injury, means the Ravens’ passing game will be on the rise in 2023. The problem is, even though these receivers should do great things for the offense as a whole, they likely aren’t going to provide great value for your fantasy team.
In all likelihood, all three of these receivers will remain behind Mark Andrews in the pecking order, and I’m not sure the No. 2 option in this passing game will amount to much statistically. Sure, one of the three could emerge as a bona fide stud, but what’s more likely is this offense (for fantasy) resembles that of the Chiefs where you want the quarterback and the tight end, but the rest of the production is so spread out that none of the receivers emerge as great options. Throw in the fact that it’s difficult to tell who will even claim that No 2 role, and the reward simply doesn’t outweigh the risk in this entire receiver room.
Kelley: Rashod Bateman
Rashod Bateman was a first-round pick in 2021. That’s a nice thing to hang your hat on. But at this point, if you’re drafting him, you’re drafting a guy who:
- Has one career top-15 weekly finish (WR13 in Week 2 of 2022) and zero as a WR1.
- Has more weekly finishes outside of the top 100 (three) than inside the top 20 (two).
- Was 70th in PFF WR receiving grade in 2021 (of 89 receivers, min. 50 targets) and 97th in 2022 (of 107 receivers, min. 25 targets).
- Is going from being the only noteworthy receiver in his offense to running alongside a fellow first-rounder (Zay Flowers), a big-name veteran (Odell Beckham), a smaller-name veteran (Zay Flowers) and also Mark Andrews, Isaiah Likely and possible more receiving work from the backfield.
- Has only played 18 of a possible 34 games in his career.
- Missed some days of practice during minicamp after a cortisone shot in his foot, the same foot that cost him more than half of last season.
If you drafted Rashod Bateman in 2022, it was because he had a theoretically dominant role as the lone relevant man in his offense. That’s gone now. Or it was because he had flashed marginal productivity in 2021. But “marginal” was about it — he topped out at 17.3 PPR points in a game and had more games under 30 yards (six) than over 50 (five). He might still break out, but right now he’s the first Ravens receiver going off the board, and I’d certainly take at least Flowers over him.
Bold Predictions
Dolan: Lamar Jackson Is (Once Again) the QB1
It feels weird that the Ravens’ running back is a sleeper, all of their WRs are busts, and yet I’m predicting Lamar Jackson will be the best fantasy quarterback in the game. As mentioned earlier in the bust section, even though I think the WRs will be shaky for fantasy, they should provide great value for the Ravens’ passing attack holistically. The improvement in this room plus the addition of Todd Monken as offensive coordinator means everything is shaping up for Jackson to have a career year as a passer.
Of course, it’s not the passing game that creates the monstrous upside that comes with Jackson. It wasn’t long ago that he broke fantasy football when he and the Ravens’ ground game was setting NFL rushing records. Jackson’s still an elite ball carrier and remains a near-lock to accumulate top 3 rushing production at the position – the improved passing game is simply the cherry on top. The best part is, based on his current price, you can draft him as a mid-tier QB1 and get that overall QB1 upside while still having a high floor due to his rushing ability. I’m going to have a lot of Lamar Jackson shares this year, and it’s going to be fun watching how his season unfolds.
Kelley: No Top-200 Ravens Skill Player Beats ADP
I’m high on Lamar Jackson this year, his first under Todd Monken and first with his contract in place. And even if Monken doesn’t call a game the same way Greg Roman did, Jackson is going to get his ground work. When Jackson isn’t carrying the ball, the Ravens suddenly have a wealth of options, a situation the team hasn’t been in in a generation. In the backfield, there is J.K. Dobbins (RB18 by ADP) and Gus Edwards (RB57), plus the aforementioned Keaton Mitchell (RB98). At receiver, we have Rashod Bateman (WR45, and my concerns have been covered above), Zay Flowers (WR46) and Odell Beckham (WR52). And at tight end, there is Mark Andrews (TE2) and Isaiah Likely (TE29).
I think Likely comfortably beats his TE29 ADP, which will impact Andrews. I think the lack of receiving work for Dobbins and Edwards hold them back, as does the arrival of Mitchell. That is collectively a good receiver room, but there’s no one guy there so much better than the others that he will be worth starting in fantasy. In short, I like the Ravens’ offense overall, but the whole is definitely going to be worth more than the sum of its parts, and that means it’s an offense you should watch admiringly but not really invest in in fantasy.
