NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
Dan Fornek and Jeremy Popielarz continue with the 2022 Sleepers, Busts and Bets series to preview all 32 NFL teams for the upcoming year. Next up: The Pittsburgh Steelers.
Dan and Jeremy will list their picks with confidence in “The Answers,” Then expand upon their picks with more details reason in “The Explanation.”
The Answers
Favorite Sleeper
Fornek: Chase Claypool
Popielarz: Pat Freiermuth
Biggest Bust
Fornek: Najee Harris
Popielarz: Najee Harris
Boldest Bet
Fornek: Mitch Trubisky is a Top-15 QB
Popielarz: Diontae Johnson is Not a Top-15 WR
The Explanation
Sleeper
Fornek: Chase Claypool
Heading into 2021, everyone expected some level of regression from Chase Claypool after he finished the 2020 season as the WR23 by averaging 13.4 points per game. In his first season, the second-round pick out of Notre Dame caught 62 of 109 targets for 873 yards and nine touchdowns and added two rushing touchdowns for good measure. In 2021, the touchdown regression hit, with the second-year player scoring just twice. The lack of touchdowns led to a WR41 finish with an average of 10.6 fantasy points per game. Despite the lack of touchdowns, the rest of Claypool’s stats in 2021 look remarkably similar to his rookie season.
Claypool still had 105 targets, 59 receptions and 860 receiving yards in 2021, totals that fell just short of his first year in the league. Touchdowns don’t tend to stick year to year, making it likely that Claypool’s 2022 totals fall between his stellar rookie season and his underwhelming sophomore season. The addition of George Pickens in the second round of the 2022 draft can be seen as a concern for Claypool, but the team will need a third receiver to emerge after allowing Ray-Ray McCloud (66 targets), James Washington (44 targets) and JuJu Smith-Schuster (28 targets in five games) walk in free agency. The most likely outcome involves either Claypool or Pickens starting the season by primarily playing the big slot position.
Claypool is currently being drafted as WR47 around pick 109, which is roughly the ninth round of fantasy drafts. That’s too low given his role in a Steelers’ passing attack that has two quarterback upgrades on the roster and a lack of depth outside the top three names on their depth chart.
Popielarz: Pat Freiermuth
As a rookie, Pat Freiermuth came on strong, ultimately taking over as the top tight end for the Steelers by the end of the season. He finished as the TE13 by producing 151.7 PPR points in 16 games. Over a quarter of these points were from his seven touchdowns, and he had 60 receptions for 497 yards. After the Steelers’ Week 7 bye, he averaged 11.2 PPR fantasy points a week and was the TE7 during this span. A large part of his success was his ability to win at the catch point, winning 86% of his contested targets. This helped him earn the second-most red-zone targets on the team (20), and he converted seven of them for a score. All of this led to a 121.1 passer rating when targeted, the highest on the team. Now with either Mitch Trubisky or Kenny Pickett at the helm, we can expect a different look to the offense. Last year, the Steelers were limited by an aging Ben Roethlisberger — per the FTN Fantasy advanced receiving stats, James Washington (12.67 yards) and Chase Claypool (11.29) were the only players with an average depth of target over 8.4 yards, and they and Diontae Johnson (8.37) were the only three over 7. It’s likely we see this increase this year for many players, and Freiermuth’s will likely be one that increases from the 5.71 mark of 2021. With this increase in his depth of target and the fact Washington, JuJu Smith-Schuster and Ebron moved on in free agency, Freiermuth should see a large jump in production, ultimately leading him to a top-12 finish in 2022.
Bust
Fornek: Najee Harris
The term “bust” is somewhat relative here — Najee Harris’ role in the Pittsburgh offense warrants a first-round selection in fantasy drafts — but coming off the board as the sixth pick (RB4) seems like he’s being drafted at his absolute ceiling. Harris finished his rookie season as the RB4 in PPR leagues thanks to his role as a true bell-cow running back. Harris played in 84% of the team’s offensive snaps and finished with 307 carries for 1,200 yards and seven touchdowns behind a truly bad offensive line. While those are solid rushing numbers, a majority of Harris’ fantasy value came from a role in the passing attack that saw him catch 74 of 94 targets for 467 yards and three touchdowns. Despite finishing as a top-five running back in total fantasy points, Harris finished ninth in points per game (13.3).
The Steelers used a combination of free agency and the NFL draft to upgrade both their offensive line and quarterback position. While the offensive line will help Harris, the new quarterback situation could lead to less work in the passing attack. According to FTN’s advanced passing stats, only two starting quarterbacks (Zach Wilson and Trevor Lawrence) averaged fewer yards per passing attempt than Ben Roethlisberger (6.18) last season. Roethlisberger’s arm strength suffered immensely in the last two years of his career, leading to a huge boost in the passing attack for the running back position. We don’t know what we will be getting from Mitch Trubisky or Kenny Pickett, but it’s hard to envision they don’t have a stronger arm than the shambling corpse Roethlisberger has become. If Harris sees a significant dip in his pass game work, then it will be very difficult for him to finish at his ADP unless he gets immensely more efficient as a runner.
Popielarz: Najee Harris
Najee Harris was a big-time fantasy weapon last season, finishing with over 300 PPR points en route to an RB3 finish, thanks to 1,667 scrimmage yards and 10 total touchdowns. One of the biggest drivers of his production was his position-leading (tied with Austin Ekeler) 94 targets, which turned into 74 receptions. Those receptions alone, without accounting for what he did once he caught the ball, accounted for almost a quarter (24.6%) of his PPR points.
Harris averaged only 3.9 yards per carry, 23rd out of 30 running backs with 150-plus carries. He also struggled to create a ton of explosive plays on the ground, producing only nine carries of 15-plus yards. He topped 100 yards on the ground three times but came in with fewer than 50 in seven games. The Steelers added Mason Cole and James Daniels in free agency this offseason, which will help the offensive line, but not by that much — this is still a below-average unit. The Steelers added George Pickens and Calvin Austin in the draft to serve as pass-catching weapons and brought in two mobile quarterbacks in Mitch Trubisky and Kenny Pickett. Combined, they all mean Harris will likely see his targets decrease in 2022. The team has also said it wants to give Harris more rest. Harris is still a borderline RB1, high-end RB2 at worst, but he’s unlikely to return value on his ADP.
Bet
Fornek: Mitch Trubisky is a Top-15 QB
We are going to go extra bold with this edition’s best bet: Not only will Mitch Trubisky hold down the starting quarterback spot for the Steelers, but he will be productive enough to finish as a high-end QB2 in fantasy leagues this season. Our last memories of Trubisky are of him leading an inept Bears offense as the starting quarterback during the 2020 season. Despite his status as a poor NFL quarterback, Trubisky has been a decent fantasy option. During that same 2020 season, Trubisky finished with 16.17 fantasy points per game. In 2018, he finished as a top-15 quarterback with 18.79 PPG.
In four seasons with Chicago, Trubisky averaged 47.5 rushing attempts, 264.3 rushing yards and two rushing touchdowns per season. While he doesn’t have the rushing upside of players like Lamar Jackson and Kyler Murray, he is far from a statue in the pocket and can sneak some touchdowns in on the ground. The veteran quarterback also spent last season as a backup quarterback in Buffalo, being coached by Brian Daboll. While we don’t know how much he has developed, any growth in passing ability combined with his rushing upside could provide solid quarterback play from a guy currently being drafted as the QB29 in fantasy drafts.
The Steelers did use a first-round pick on Kenny Pickett in this year’s NFL Draft, but his draft capital (pick 20) affords Pittsburgh the chance to let him develop and grow on the bench. If Pittsburgh is playing well on offense with Trubisky, there will be no rush to throw Pickett in on offense before he is truly ready. Trubisky’s mobility, combined with strong wide receivers and a pass-catching running back, has the makings of an offense that can support a top-15 fantasy quarterback. All he has to do is keep the job.
Popielarz: Diontae Johnson is Not a Top-15 WR
After struggling with drops in 2020, Diontae Johnson bounced back with a WR8 PPR finish in 2021 and, per the FTN Fantasy advanced receiving stats, cut his drops in half (from 14 to 7) despite seeing his targets climb from 144 to 170. He produced 107 receptions, 1,161 yards and 9 touchdowns (all career highs). However, the Steelers’ offense is likely to look very different in 2022. With either Trubisky or Pickett under center, the offense could be much more inefficient than in years past. There may also come a significant reduction in the 664 pass attempts from the team last year (fourth most in the league). On top of this, the emergence of Pat Freiermuth and the additions of George Pickens and Calvin Austin should lead to fewer opportunities for Johnson this season.
This leads me to believe that we could see a season that resembles Johnson’s 2020 season when he finished as the WR21. With all the new stars at wide receiver these days, it’s only getting harder to make it into the WR1 ranks, so it won’t take much reduction in opportunity or effective for Johnson to slide outside of the top 15 in 2022.
