Sleepers, Busts and Bets: The 2022 Cincinnati Bengals

Jeremy Popielarz and Dan Fornek continue with the 2022 Sleepers, Busts and Bets series to preview all 32 NFL teams for the upcoming year. Next up: The Cincinnati Bengals.

Jeremy and Dan will list their picks with confidence in “The Answers,” Then expand upon their picks with more details reason in “The Explanation.”

The Answers

Favorite Sleeper

Popielarz: Hayden Hurst
Fornek: Hayden Hurst

Biggest Bust

Popielarz: Tee Higgins
Fornek: Joe Mixon

Boldest Bet

Popielarz: Joe Burrow Is a Top-Three QB
Fornek: Tee Higgins Leads the NFL in Receiving Yards

The Explanation

Sleeper

Popielarz: Hayden Hurst

It’s hard trying to pick a sleeper on this roster that is loaded from top to bottom with high-end fantasy talent. I settled on Hayden Hurst, the former first-rounder on his third team in four years. In four years in the NFL, he has yet to top 600 yards or 6 touchdowns in a season, only finishing top 12 once, a TE10 finish in 2020. That was his best year, posting 56 receptions for 571 yards and 6 touchdowns on 88 targets.

Hurst signed with a Bengals team this offseason that devoted significant resources to improving the offensive line this offseason. That should help keep Joe Burrow upright in 2022, which could help lead to more pass attempts instead of scrambles or sacks. With Hurst taking the place of C.J. Uzomah, who saw 63 targets last year, an increase in pass attempts could lead to something closer to 80 targets this year, even as the fourth option in the passing game. If Hurst can turn that load of targets into a handful of touchdowns, he has top-12 upside.

Fornek: Hayden Hurst

The Bengals let veteran tight end C.J. Uzomah walk in free agency, replacing him with Hayden Hurst. Hurst didn’t provide much fantasy upside with the Falcons in 2021 since he was utilized as an inline blocker while first-round pick Kyle Pitts worked primarily at receiver. According to PlayerProfiler, Hurst had just a 45.3% route participation rate that ultimately contributed to his paltry stat line (31 targets, 26 receptions, 221 receiving yards, and three touchdowns). Hurst will join a loaded receiving corps in Cincinnati, but that isn’t necessarily a negative.

Last year, Uzomah finished as the TE19, averaging 8.0 fantasy points per game. Despite the mediocre finish, Uzomah provided stretches of fantasy relevance throughout the regular season. In Weeks 4-7, Uzomah was the TE3 in fantasy, scoring 16.2 fantasy points per game thanks to 13 receptions, 217 yards and 5 touchdowns. He didn’t find the end zone again for the rest of the season, but he did average 4.9 targets and 3.9 receptions per game. During his two healthy games in the playoffs, he had 14 targets, 13 receptions and 145 yards. Uzomah was able to capitalize underneath while teams schemed to stop Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd.

Hurst was fantasy relevant as recently as 2020 when he had 56 receptions on 88 targets for 571 yards and six touchdowns. He will be the Bengals’ best all-around tight end in 2022 and the best pass catcher at the position. Hurst is currently being drafted as the TE26 and he has an excellent chance to beat that total if he’s healthy in an offense that we all expect to pass at a higher rate with a healthy Joe Burrow next season.

Bust

Picking a bust on this roster is also difficult, but I can see Tee Higgins underperforming in 2022. Over his first two seasons in the NFL, he has yet to see fewer than 100 targets and has produced back-to-back seasons of 900-plus receiving yards and 6 touchdowns. In both seasons, he finished as a top-30 fantasy wide receiver, with his highest finish coming last year as the WR20. Last season, he saw a 20% target share, 30% air yard share, a 23% first read target share and a 33% end zone target share, all second on the team to rookie Ja’Marr Chase. That makes it pretty clear Higgins was the second target in this offense — though in Weeks 12-18 he did average over seven more PPR fantasy points per game than the first 11 weeks, while Chase saw 1 PPR point less a week in the same stretch. In part due to that hot stretch, Higgins’ ADP has soared this draft season — he’s going as a borderline WR1 in drafts, WR12 in ADP. So even if he’s good again in 2022, that lofty ADP is why he’s my bust, because it’s hard to picture a top-12 season from Higgins.

Last year, the Bengals stayed committed to the run, calling a run play 41% of the time. This was even with the ineffectiveness of the run game, as the team only averaged 4.0 yards a carry. As a result, the Bengals set out to address their offensive line this offseason, which they did significantly. This should improve the run game and offense overall, but may have a negative effect on Higgins. If the Bengals end up leaning on Joe Mixon and the run game a bit more this year, it would limit the targets to go around. With Chase the clear No. 1 target in this offense, and then Tyler Boyd and new acquisition Hayden Hurst vying for targets as well, it’s easy to see how Higgins may not see many more targets than he did last season. With two seasons of similar target shares and similar production, it seems fair to say that his ceiling may be a mid-level WR2 at best, outside an injury that sees his role increase. 

Fornek: Joe Mixon

Full disclosure: I am a big Joe Mixon fan and have drafted a ton of him this summer. However, given that we expect the Bengals’ offense to move faster and throw more in 2022, he becomes the most likely Bengals player to bust relative to ADP. After years of wishing, Mixon finally delivered on the upside fantasy gamers hoped for throughout the first four years of his career. In 16 games, Mixon produced 292 carries, 1,205 yards and 13 touchdowns. He also had a very efficient year as a receiver, catching 42 of 48 targets for 314 yards and three touchdowns.

Given the improvements Cincinnati made to the offensive line and the effectiveness of Joe Burrow, it would seem Mixon should be poised to have another big season. However, there are reasons to pause before hitting the draft button at his late Round 1 or early Round 2 ADP. Despite his effectiveness as a receiver, Mixon still comes off the field a considerable amount in third-down situations. Last season, Samaje Perine played 27% of the team’s snaps, primarily on third downs due to his pass blocking and efficiency as a short-yardage and receiving back. There are also reports that the team will look to expand Chris Evans’ role in his second season. He was an exceptional pass catcher throughout his college career at Michigan and would add another dimension to the Cincinnati offense if he can earn a bigger role.

Unfortunately, all of that means Mixon will continue to be used sporadically as a three-down back throughout the 2022 season. He will still function as the team’s primary running back and will have every opportunity to match or exceed his rushing touchdown totals. However, he will need a lot to break his way to hit his RB7 ADP, especially in PPR leagues. His upside is as good as anyone, but his inability to maintain a true three-down role makes it very easy for him to miss expectations as a top-10 running back in 2022.

Bet

Popielarz: Joe Burrow Is a Top-Three QB

Joe Burrow is coming up on two full years removed from his ACL injury he suffered as a rookie, so any remaining concerns about his health should be gone. Last season, the Bengals fell just short in the Super Bowl, in large part due to the poor play of the offensive line. They attempted to fix that problem this offseason by adding Alex Cappa, Ted Karras and La’el Collins, ultimately revamping the entire line. As a result, we can be optimistic for Burrow improving on last year’s 4,611 passing yards and 34 touchdowns, while hopefully avoiding 51-sack season. Last year, the Bengals called 726 pass plays, which resulted in only 555 pass attempts — I expect that latter number to be closer to the 600 range in 2022. With more attempts comes more completions, especially for a player who completed 70.4% of his passes last season. As a result, he will produce more fantasy points on a weekly basis.

A lot of the preseason hype in the Bengals offense revolves around Ja’Marr Chase after his historic rookie season. What is being lost in the Chase hype is how effective Tee Higgins was in his second season with Cincinnati. Higgins played in 14 games during last season, finishing second on the team in targets (110), receptions (74), receiving yards (1,091) and receiving touchdowns (6). Both players earned at least 30 targets during the team’s Super Bowl run and had over 300 receiving yards. On a per-game basis, Higgins outpaced Chase in both targets (7.9 vs. 7.5) and receptions (5.3 vs. 4.9). Chase benefitted greatly from an early-season injury to Higgins and had more explosive plays, but despite that, they finished extremely close together in terms of production.

In 2022, teams will have the benefit of film analysis to figure out ways to try and contain Chase. Teams will likely begin using more two high safeties to try and contain the big plays that Chase showed a penchant for in his first season. One positive of Joe Burrow is he doesn’t lock into wide receivers and will spread the ball out accordingly to whoever is getting open while running routes. If teams start trying to suppress big plays, that should lead to a greater opportunity for a player who wins in short to intermediate routes like Tee Higgins. We don’t root for injuries here, but if Chase were to get injured, then Higgins would be poised to explode as the team’s best pass catcher. Even if Chase is healthy, Higgins should get the benefit of softer coverage as opposing teams attempt to limit big plays.

We have seen Higgins flourish alongside Chase and carve out big games even with a more limited target share. Chase will still be the focal point of the Bengals’ passing attack, but Higgins could lead the league in receiving yards in a high-volume passing offense with an accurate quarterback who won’t lock on to just one target (no matter how dominant he is).