Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
If at this time a year ago, you had known that Christian McCaffrey would be the top fantasy football running back of 2023, that information would have been valuable, but it wouldn’t have changed your fantasy league that much. If instead you had known that Kyren Williams would be the RB7 (and RB2 per game), that information might have won you your league.
In short, it’s good to figure out who is going to be good. But it’s even better to figure out who is going to be good but isn’t necessarily expected to be.
That’s what we’re doing right now. Heading into the 2024 NFL Draft, the rest of offseason and then the 2024 season, it’s time to look at some of the top sleepers at the running back position for 2024. (We’ll be back Wednesday with some busts.)
It’s too early for some concrete ADP to draw from, so this is basically a perception thing — which running backs are going to beat their history and popular perception?
2024 Fantasy Football Sleepers: Running Back
Jonathan Taylor, Indianapolis Colts
Jonathan Taylor is going to be drafted as a sure fantasy starter, but something more like the back half of the RB1s, and that undersells his 2024 potential a bit. With Zack Moss leaving in free agency, the backups in Indianapolis heading into the draft are Evan Hull, Tyler Goodson, Trey Sermon and Zavier Scott, or four guys who had under 200 combined rushing yards in 2023 (and 160 of those were from Sermon, who has bounced around). Taylor put up 156.4 PPR points last year, and Moss put up another 81.8 in the games Taylor missed. That’s 238.2 points between the two in 2023, RB11 numbers, with Taylor coming back from injury, Moss an underwhelming starter and both missing Week 1. Assuming Taylor is back to full health, there’s a not-at-all-hard-to-imagine path form him to resemble his 2021 self and climb back to the overall RB1.
Javonte Williams, Denver Broncos
Breece Hall shattered all expectations in his return from an ACL tear last year, totaling 1,585 scrimmage yards and finishing as the fantasy RB2. But he was one of only two high-profile young backs returning from an ACL injury, and while Javonte Williams was more or less fine, he certainly didn’t resemble Hall. He only got to 1,002 scrimmage yards (774 on the ground) and finished as the ho-hum RB29. He improved as the year went on (didn’t reach even double-digit PPR points in a game until Week 7, didn’t have a 20-point game until Week 18), which could be an argument he was only getting healthier. Now, he’s the best weapon on a team that is shedding weapons right and left, his only competition for touches are the underwhelming Samaje Perine and the undersized Jaleel McLaughlin, and the Broncos don’t have any sort of QB answer for 2024. This could be the year Williams starts to follow through on his potential.
Raheem Mostert, Miami Dolphins
It’s weird that a guy who just finished as the RB5 in fantasy and tied for the league lead in touchdowns, but Raheem Mostert isn’t going to be drafted like he’s that guy. And on the one hand, that’s totally fair — he turns 32 in April, 2023 was a huge outlier, and De’Von Achane is expected to be the guy in Miami now. On the other hand, Miami hasn’t appeared to even sniff around any new options at running back this offseason, and the undersized Achane missed time to injury three different times last season. Are we sure he’s ready to carry a bell cow load? And if not, doesn’t Mostert have a shot at putting up numbers at least somewhat resembling what he just did?
Rico Dowdle, Dallas Cowboys
With Tony Pollard heading to Tennessee in free agency, but Rico Dowdle re-upping with Dallas, he’s now in line to be the starter in 2024, with only diminutive Deuce Vaughn as a real contender to take touches. The Cowboys might still bring in someone like Ezekiel Elliott (though the fact that he’s still a free agent is telling) or draft someone, but we saw flashes from Dowdle in 2023 that he could pop if he gets the workload.
D’Onta Foreman, Cleveland Browns
D’Onta Foreman is apparently at his best replacing a stud starter. He popped in Tennessee in 2021 after Derrick Henry got hurt, then did it again in Carolina in 2022 after Christian McCaffrey was traded. He came in as a potential starter in Chicago in 2023, but he couldn’t separate from Khalil Herbert and Roschon Johnson and only managed 502 scrimmage yards. Now, he’s back in his comfort zone, the top backup to a stud starter, this time Nick Chubb in Cleveland. And with Chubb likely to come back slowly from his gruesome injury in 2023, there’s a chance he opens on PUP or at least has a light workload to start. If you need some early-season production, Foreman could start strong in 2024.
Chase Brown, Cincinnati Bengals
With Joe Mixon’s departure, Zack Moss is the only thing standing between Chase Brown and a monster workload. The same Zack Moss who was considered all but irrelevant a year ago, who was a forgotten part of a nothing trade the year before, who the Bills had to go out and draft James Cook to replace in 2022. He’s been fine in small samples, but he’s now four years into his career, and 2023 was his first year of even 500 yards rushing. We saw Brown have some explosive plays last year (a 54-yard touchdown reception, runs of 27 and 31 yards) despite a minimal sample size (44 carries, 14 receptions). He’s not a candidate to finish as an RB1, but if you’re looking for someone who might go undrafted and could be a low-end RB2/flex, this is your guy.
Jonathon Brooks, rookie
Blake Corum, rookie
Obviously, landing spots matter greatly for the guys in this year’s draft, but Jonathon Brooks and Blake Corum both stand out as interesting right away. Most everyone has paired Corum with his college coach Jim Harbaugh with the Chargers, and while that smacks of “too easy,” it also makes some sense, and if he lands in Los Angeles with only Gus Edwards to contend with, he could see massive work right away. Meanwhile, Brooks would likely have been the clear RB1 in this year’s draft class had he not torn his ACL in November, and even with that he’s a candidate to be the first back off the board. There have been reports he’ll be cleared by training camp, so whoever drafts him (Cowboys? Giants?) could get a starter at a slight discount.
