Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Welcome to what has quickly become my favorite article to write! A single-entry guide to each week in NFL DFS, which mixes evergreen thoughts with slate-specific thoughts about both strategy and individual plays. I’ll be heavily referencing our contest sims and GPP Scores, but I also recommend revisiting (or checking out) our Contest Selection 101 article for a reminder of how we want to attack single-entry contests in the first place (hint — aggressively).
If I had to summarize in one sentence how you should approach lineup building in general, but especially for SE contests, it’s this — stop asking if a decision is something you can do and start making sure each decision is something you should do.
Every week, I get questions in Discord like “Can I play Anthony Richardson naked?” or “Can I play both Detroit RBs?” etc etc. The word “can” carries a lot of weight here. Suboptimally built lineups can win, and they do win. But they don’t win as often as optimally built lineups. So that’s our goal — to build lineups with as high a probability of success as we possibly can. This article is about how I plan to do just that in Week 17.
Single-Entry Stacks for Week 17
In the last few weeks, we’ve seen the importance of correlation jump to the forefront once again. Two weeks ago, Aaron Rodgers double stacks with a Brian Thomas Jr. bringback (and Brenton Strange) was the skeleton key and this past week, you needed to find the right cheap stack to fit the RBs who all crushed. TwoGun was able to do just that with a Tennessee stack, and guess what, I love the Titans stack this week, too.
1. Tennessee Titans
Tennessee has been more pass-happy with Mason Rudolph at the helm since they aren’t terrified that he’s going to turn it over every drop back. Calvin Ridley and Chig Okonkwo have both benefited from his presence and now they get a wonderful matchup with Jacksonville, who has allowed more deep passing yards than the league-leading QB has thrown. Ridley and Okonkwo both pop in the GPP Scores while Brian Thomas Jr. is once again a perfect bringback. However, I’m also interested in playing Tank Bigsby alongside Thomas.
Mason Rudolph — Calvin Ridley — Chig Okonkwo — Brian Thomas Jr. — Tank Bigsby
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