Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
All summer long, I’m taking a look at the fantasy landscape heading into 2023 and helping drafters make some of the toughest decisions. If two players are close to one another in ADP, who should you choose? That’s the plan here. This is Fantasy Crossroads.
The Fantasy Crossroads series heads to the backfield this week.
We take a look at two running backs going right outside the top 12. Travis Etienne showed serious flashes during his first full NFL season last year, while Najee Harris has touched the ball more than anyone over the last two seasons, though the results haven’t always been the greatest.
Travis Etienne, Jacksonville Jaguars
The Case for Etienne
Travis Etienne missed his entire rookie season with a foot injury, but after being limited to start his “sophomore” year, the Clemson product hit the ground running. Etienne took over lead running back duties in Week 7, rushing for 114 yards and a touchdown on 14 carries against the Giants. And with James Robinson traded to the Jets, it was Etienne’s time to shine. He certainly didn’t disappoint with the uptick in opportunity, as Etienne ranked fifth in rushing yards (876), second in 100-yard games (5), eighth in yards per attempt (4.9) and third in avoided tackles per attempt during that stretch (0.26). He averaged a little over 17 touches per game from that point, but we also have to keep in mind that he left Week 12’s contest after playing just eight percent of the offensive snaps. If you remove that game, Etienne averaged closer to 19 touches and 15 PPR points per game. Overall, Etienne was very efficient on the ground, ranking fifth in the league in missed tackles forced (57) and runs of 15 or more yards (16). His 5.7 yards per touch was the 10th-best mark among qualified running backs, while his 9.0 yards per target was fifth-best at the position. Etienne is a tremendous player who should be the lead running back for an ascending Jacksonville offense.
The Case against Etienne
Admittedly, I do have some concerns regarding Etienne in fantasy this season. Yes, he is easily the best running back on the roster. He showed nothing last year for me to believe he won’t continue to be a very good player. But he can still be a really good and efficient running back, while also underwhelming in fantasy.
It all comes down to valuable touches.
Despite being regarded as an amazing pass-catching running back coming out of Clemson, Etienne has not been involved in that aspect to start his NFL career. Yes, it is still very early, but you definitely don’t love to see how little he was involved last year. During his first NFL season last year, Etienne ranked outside the top-30 running backs in target share, while dropping a few passes. And among running backs with at least 20 targets this past season, Etienne sported the fourth-lowest target per route run rate at just 14%. So Etienne already wasn’t used much in the passing game and now Calvin Ridley is entering the equation. Secondly, Etienne wasn’t efficient when it came to converting touchdown opportunities. He had 10 carries from inside the 5-yard line last year (12th), but only scored two touchdowns on those attempts. And yes, touchdowns are impossible to predict and as long as he gets those opportunities again, Etienne should bounce back in that department. But it also wouldn’t shock me if rookie Tank Bigsby took some of that work. Last year at Auburn, Bigsby converted nearly 80% of his short-yardage carries into either first downs or touchdowns. If Etienne simply gets the goal line role again this year and has more luck on his side, there is a legitimate top-seven ceiling for fantasy, especially if he does enough in the passing game. And he certainly was unlucky, as his 8.0 expected rushing touchdowns (per FTN Fantasy’s Expected Fantasy Points Tool) were the fourth most in the league in 2022. But Jacksonville loves Bigbsy, he’s been good in short-yardage roles and also has experience running out of the Wildcat formation, which is what Doug Pederson often called from inside the 5-yard line last year.
Najee Harris, Pittsburgh Steelers
The Case for Harris
Volume.
No player in the NFL has more touches since 2021 than Najee Harris, who is flirting with a whopping 700 during that span. We know Steelers head coach Mike Tomlin has preferred to lean on one running back during his time in Pittsburgh, which has clearly continued to be the case. Through his first two seasons, Harris is averaging a strong 20.4 touches per game, while ranking 10th and first among running backs in opportunity share. And despite having such a massive workload, Harris has yet to miss a game, though he has been a little banged up here and there. Harris has certainly struggled a bit with efficiency, but he has also run behind one of the worst offensive lines in the league to start his career. Entering the 2023 season, the Steelers offensive line is much improved, bringing in Isaac Seumalo and Broderick Jones during the offseason.
The Case Against Harris
The main argument many can make against Harris is the fact that because he has been so inefficient, what if Pittsburgh finally starts to give a second running back more work? Everyone knows Jaylen Warren was outstanding in a limited role last season. He averaged 4.9 yards per carry and 3.08 yards after contact per rush on 77 carries, while the Steelers were very comfortable playing Warren on third downs, as he played more than Harris in those instances. Harris’ usage on third downs dropped dramatically last season, as he only logged 40.3% of Pittsburgh’s third downs, while Warren was at 52.1%. Between that and the fact that Kenny Pickett’s mobility had far more of an impact than Ben Roethlisberger’s statue-like tendencies, Harris dropped from 94 targets in 2021 to just 54 last year. As we mentioned, Harris has struggled with efficiency, ranking outside the top-50 in yards per touch this past season (4.0). The explosive plays haven’t been there either, as Harris recorded just seven runs of 15-plus yards on 272 carries last year. For reference, Warren had four such runs on just 77 attempts. Having said that, it would still be pretty surprising to see Tomlin suddenly deploy a committee backfield but regardless, Harris’ receiving volume isn’t close to what it was during his rookie season.
The Verdict: Travis Etienne
Clearly I have concerns regarding both Harris and Etienne entering the 2023 campaign. However, I think there is more inherent upside with Etienne, especially when you consider truly how great he could be if the goal line usage and targets climb entering his second full NFL season. I think Etienne has a much higher chance of finishing as one of the five best running backs in all of fantasy football.
