NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
We return to the tight end position in our Fantasy Crossroads series.
This is a really interesting matchup of NFC East tight ends. Dallas Goedert has been as efficient as any tight end in the league in every area of the field except the end zone. Darren Waller, meanwhile, has struggled to stay on the field since his breakout seasons in 2019 and 2020 but should be the focal point of the Giants passing attack.
The Case for Dallas Goedert
Dallas Goedert has been one of the most efficient tight ends in the NFL over the last few seasons. Since 2021, Goedert has averaged 10.3 and 10.9 yards per target, both of which have been the highest rates at the tight end position. Goedert has also ranked top five in yards per reception and yards per route run in both seasons. And finally, Goedert ranks first and fifth among tight ends in yards after the catch per reception over the last two years. So simply put, Goedert has essentially been elite in basically every important metric as of late, which means we have a really good player in a really good offense.
This past season, Goedert finished fifth among tight ends in fantasy points per contest (11.8), and in his 11 fully healthy games, Goedert recorded 60+ receiving yards seven times, which is a terrific mark for a tight end. Goedert posted a target share of around 18% in the games he played in, which ranked seventh among tight ends, while averaging about six targets per game. That is good, not great volume, but because Goedert is one of the most efficient tight ends, he doesn’t need Travis Kelce or Mark Andrews volume.
The Case against Dallas Goedert
There is really only one argument I can make against Goedert – touchdown upside. Goedert just doesn’t have it. For starters, competing with A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith for targets is already difficult enough, but especially in the red zone when Jalen Hurts is getting designed rushing attempts.
Only Jamaal Williams had more rush attempts from inside the five-yard line last season than Hurts (20). And for whatever reason, Goedert has not seen many looks in scoring position. In fact, over the past two seasons, Goedert has a grand total of four end-zone targets. For reference, 21 tight ends saw four or more end-zone targets just last year alone.
The Case for Darren Waller
Coming over from the Raiders, Darren Waller is set to lead the Giants in targets in 2023. It sure sounds like Waller, who is clearly the Giants’ best pass-catcher, will be heavily involved, as head coach Brian Daboll and offensive coordinator Mike Kafka are going to be creating plays specifically for him. Earlier this offseason, Daboll stated, “I’ve got a lot of drawings on the board right now,” when discussing new plays designed for Waller.
We could easily see Waller finish top-three among tight ends in targets this season, especially if the Giants throw the football a bit more than 2022. And unlike Goedert, Waller has been featured in the red zone, as he saw seven end-zone targets (7th-most) in just nine games last season. Waller has ranked seventh, eighth and fourth in end-zone targets over the past three seasons. His playing time should also rise from last year, as Waller’s snaps were down in 2022. As long as Waller can stay on the field, he should hover around the 100-target mark.
The Case against Darren Waller
It really is going to come down to age and health for Waller. Because he broke out relatively late in his career, I think many people overlook the fact that Waller is now 31 years old. And over the last two seasons, Waller has dealt with hamstring, ankle and thigh injuries, missing 14 games during that span. It’s entirely possible that Waller is on the decline, and we know that Philadelphia’s offense is more explosive than the Giants.
The Verdict
This honestly feels like a battle of efficiency against volume. On a per-target basis, Goedert is going to be better, because, well, he’s been better than almost anyone at the position over the last two seasons. However, Waller has a better chance of seeing 100 targets and 6-8 touchdowns, which makes this a really interesting matchup. I know many are going to have Waller ranked ahead of Goedert this season, which is perfectly reasonable. However, and this could change before the season starts, I’m still leaning toward Goedert and Philadelphia’s elite offense.
