Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
There’s nothing quite like the allure of a promising NFL rookie. Their unproven nature oftentimes leads to ADPs being inflated with optimism, but that same optimism tends to vanish if the player doesn’t produce right out of the gates. This volatility is stressful for many, but it presents a golden opportunity for the savvy fantasy manager who can maintain a cool head amidst the hype (or lack thereof).
After witnessing just one NFL season from a young player, fans and fantasy managers tend to believe they know what the future entails for a certain player. Even though second- and third-year breakouts are far from uncommon, players who didn’t burst onto the scene in year one quickly become afterthoughts. In this series, a few of the writers at FTN Fantasy will look back on some of the players drafted in 2021, determine what’s changed over the past year, and recalibrate their outlooks for 2022.
Trevor Lawrence: QB Jacksonville Jaguars
Coming out of Clemson, Trevor Lawrence was considered to be the next great thing at the quarterback position. Many viewed him as the best prospect in nearly a decade, and even in a stacked quarterback class, selecting Lawrence first overall was a no-brainer for the Jaguars.
Whether you’re looking at his tape, measurables, or intangibles, Lawrence checked every box you’d want to see from a prospect. He has the size (6-foot-6, 220 pounds), athleticism and arm talent to beat defenses in myriad ways, and those skills paired with his leadership and intangibles helped him boast a 38-2 (!) record as a starter while at Clemson. While there’s no such thing as a sure thing in the NFL Draft, Lawrence was considered the closest thing we’ve seen in a long time.
What Went Right
Amid all the chaos around him in Jacksonville, Lawrence still managed to look like a natural on the field in year one. He frequently made tough throws and proved capable of dissecting every level of an opposing defense. He was equally as impressive operating within the pocket where he showed the presence and awareness of a 10-year veteran, and also while on the move where he diced up defenses on both designed bootlegs and via impromptu scrambles.
Quite possibly the most inspiring thing we saw from Lawrence came during Jacksonville’s season finale against Indianapolis. The Colts were a heavy favorite and fighting for a spot in the playoffs while the Jaguars were playing for nothing but pride. Despite the lack of incentive, Lawrence led his team to a shocking upset and showcased some impressive stuff along the way including…
The ability to quickly read a defense and fit the ball into a tight window on third and long:
The ability to avoid the blitz and convert a third down while on the run:
And the ability to stay calm and make some magic happen when everything else is going awry:
While the wins and losses have yet to translate to the NFL level, just about everything else we saw from Lawrence inspires optimism for long term success.
What Went Wrong
Unfortunately, the positives listed above didn’t translate to the box score. If you strictly look at the statistics, Lawrence’s rookie season was abysmal. He boasted a 3-14 record, had a poor completion percentage (59.6%), and tied for the league lead in interceptions (17) all while throwing just 12 touchdowns.
Despite the poor statistics, it’s easy to forgive Lawrence for his poor rookie campaign. He was playing on a Jacksonville team that won just one game the year before and was largely devoid of surrounding talent. To make matters worse, for most of the season Lawrence was coached by a guy who skipped team flights, belittled his staff and allegedly kicked his players. Acclimating to the NFL is a difficult task for any rookie, but Lawrence was certainly playing with the difficulty level cranked up high.
The poor situation around him meant the Jaguars were often trailing by a wide margin, which meant mounting a comeback was largely put on Lawrence’s shoulders. This led to Lawrence frequently playing “Hero Ball” and this style of play was the driving force behind a handful of his interceptions. Interceptions in these situations are justifiable, and as long as this style of play doesn’t evolve into a long-term bad habit, a better environment around him in year two should lead to much better ball security in Lawrence’s sophomore campaign.
What to Expect: 2022
I’m expecting a massive step forward for Lawrence in year two. While we all like to point and laugh at the Christian Kirk contract, there’s no denying Lawrence’s supporting cast took a step forward this offseason. With Doug Pederson serving as Jacksonville’s new head coach, there’s reason to believe the newly acquired talent will be put in a better position to succeed as well. Throw in the fact that Lawrence will have a year of experience under his belt, and it’s not unreasonable to think he can more than double his touchdown total while also cutting down on the interceptions.
Dynasty Outlook
It’s hard to imagine many Lawrence managers are tilting after just one down year, but there’s a good chance this is the lowest Lawrence’s price tag will ever be. In superflex/2QB leagues, he was the consensus 1.01 last year, and I’d gladly give up this year’s 1.01 and a little more (or equivalent value) to add Lawrence to my roster before his price tag starts to skyrocket. He has the upside to be a high-end QB1 for a decade plus, and I’m more than willing to bet on year one being a fluke and his elite talent winning out in the long run.
