Second-Year Scouting Report: Breece Hall

Each week that passes brings us closer to the NFL season. While best ball drafts have been going strong for months, redraft league drafts will be just around the corner.

Every year, rookie fever emerges, and the previous class gets pushed aside by the shiny new NFL toys. This usually results in a rookie surge of ADP, which opens up pockets of value, especially with players from the previous class who may not be as established as some long-time veterans in the league. This happens even though most fantasy analysts (and players) understand the largest leap occurs from year 1 to year 2.

Throughout the summer, FTN will be releasing second-year scouting reports to keep these players fresh in fantasy managers’ minds. The series shifts today to Breece Hall, the second-year running back with the New York Jets. This article is a breakdown of Hall’s first season and what fantasy managers can expect from him in 2023 and beyond.

Breece Hall, New York Jets

Breece Hall entered the NFL in 2022 after a prolific three seasons with the Iowa State Cyclones. In 36 games at Iowa State, Hall amassed 718 carries for 3,941 rushing yards (5.5 yards per carry) and a whopping 50 rushing touchdowns, 41 of which came over his last two seasons. Hall also established himself as a legitimate receiving threat out of the backfield, catching 82 passes for 734 yards and six touchdowns in his collegiate career.

Hall went into the draft process as the unquestioned top running back in the 2022 NFL Draft, a billing that was legitimized when he was selected with the 36th pick by the Jets. Unfortunately, Hall played in just seven games during his rookie season thanks to an ACL tear in Week 7. When all was said and done, the dynamic runner finished his first season with 80 carries for 463 yards and four rushing touchdowns while adding 19 receptions (on 31 targets) for 218 yards and one score.

What Went Right

Breece Hall was geared up for a massive fantasy impact during the 2022 season. The Jets chose to ease Hall into the starting role during his first season, playing him on fewer than 51% of the team’s offensive snaps in the first three weeks of the season. During that stretch, Hall had just 21 carries for 112 yards and 13 receptions (on 21 targets) for 101 yards and a receiving touchdown. Then the floodgates opened.

In Weeks 4-6, Hall played at least 66% of the Jets’ offensive snaps. During that time, he had 55 carries for 279 yards and three rushing touchdowns while adding six receptions (on 10 targets) for 117 yards. The highlight of his season was a Week 6 matchup against the Packers where Hall had 197 total yards. He looked explosive and flashed the same game-breaking ability that he possessed during his college career.

He was on pace to have another huge week against the Broncos in the clip above. Hall had four carries for 72 yards and a touchdown before suffering the knee injury that would end his rookie season. 

What Went Wrong

The ACL tear was less than stellar for Hall during his rookie season. Thankfully, this was strictly an ACL tear, unlike J.K. Dobbins in 2021 or Javonte Williams in 2022. While there will be an impact on Hall’s performance to start the 2023 season, he should return to full form as he gets completely healthy.

Prognosis Entering 2023

Breece Hall hasn’t suffered much according to early ADP. Hall is currently going off the board as the RB10 with pick 25.8, ahead of healthy options who command the touches in their backfield like Najee Harris, Rhamondre Stevenson and Kenneth Walker. All expectations point to Hall being ready to start the season on time, but he will be limited as the team nurses him back to full health to make a Super Bowl run with Aaron Rodgers at the helm.

If he were completely healthy, Hall would be a no-brainer first-round pick (and likely the RB2 in fantasy drafts) after what we saw during his rookie seasons. While there will be some ramp-up time for him to regain his full health, fantasy managers would be wise to grab Hall in fantasy drafts assuming there aren’t any setbacks between now and the start of the NFL season. Fantasy managers who take this route would be wise to use another early pick on a running back that can function as their RB1 until Hall returns to full strength.

Nobody will blame fantasy injury purists who refuse to roster any player coming off a significant injury. But Hall’s injury was suffered early enough in the 2022 season to provide a path for him to ramp up during the fantasy playoffs. Given his role in the passing game with a quarterback who can get him the ball, this can’t simply be ignored.

Dynasty Outlook

From a dynasty standpoint, not much has changed for Breece Hall’s long-term fantasy outlook. FTN’s dynasty ranking crew has Hall ranked as the RB4 on average behind only Bijan Robinson, Jonathan Taylor and Christian McCaffrey. Realistically, Hall should be able to jump McCaffrey (and possibly Taylor) if his recovery goes smoothly and he’s able to flash the same explosive abilities that he showed during his limited rookie season.

Hall is a definite hold if you roster him and potentially a buy if the manager who rosters him in your dynasty league is discouraged by a knee injury and looking to win now. A clean ACL tear (with no surrounding damage) is far from a death knell for NFL players in today’s medical landscape, which could make Hall a solid buy if he can be acquired for the right price.