Saquon Barkley Odds and Futures

Although it’s generally panned as a mistake to take a running back near the top of the NFL Draft, one back with the New York Giants is looking to finally live up to his potential for the 2021 NFL season, and that’s Saquon Barkley. 

The juke-stick bulldozer out of Penn State has some high expectations coming into his fourth year with the Giants and a sportsbook like BetMGM has wasted no time in offering the latest Saquon Barkley odds for a variety of futures for the 2021 season. Rushing yards, rushing touchdowns are just the tip of the iceberg with the sportsbook’s NFL odds even listing Barkley as a potential NFL Offensive Player of the Year candidate at +2000.

Let’s look at all the top NFL futures available at BetMGM for Saquon Barkley odds and see if we can identify the best angle to put some cash in our pocket.

Saquon Barkley NFL MVP Odds

Preseason: +10000, BetMGM

This one might be a bit aggressive out of the gate considering a running back hasn’t won NFL MVP since 2012, but if there’s any RB in the league who could do it, Barkley would be near the top of the list. Although he’s coming off a knee injury that cost him nearly all of last season, Barkley has looked fantastic in training camp highlights and workout videos spotlighting his quads, which look bigger than my torso. In this offense, Barkley is going to have to be the workhorse to carry this team and given the players surrounding him, this looks like an uphill battle to take Saquon for NFL MVP. 

Not only would the Giants need to win at least 10 games (unlikely), he’d also have to win the rushing title with at least 2,000 yards and have at least 12-14 rushing touchdowns. The latter stat is achievable as he went for 11 TDs on the ground in his rookie season but getting to 2000 yards means one of two things: long runs or the Giants having the lead in games. I just can’t see the Giants having sustained success with Daniel Jones at quarterback so I’m going to have to fade Barkley in this scenario.

Verdict: No thanks!

Saquon Barkley NFL Offensive Player of the Year Odds 

Preseason: +2000, BetMGM

For NFL Offensive Player of the Year, Barkley could be a worthy consideration for a lot of the same reasons I mentioned above for NFL MVP. He’s a powerful three-down back who should get over 90% of the goal-line touches so the opportunity will be there for Barkley to get his. The reason why this gets tricky is again the same old question: Will Barkley’s production translate to wins? If you think no, then don’t bet on him at all for this NFL futures market. Since 2000, every player that has won the AP NFL POY award has been on a winning team with at least 10 wins in that respective season. 

If the Giants win 10 or more games, it will be because of Barkley’s ability to be unstoppable and float all boats in that offense. He could have over 1,500 yards and double-digit touchdowns but if he or the Giants struggle, his chances decrease with each Giants’ loss.

Verdict: On the fence. Wouldn’t be mad if you bet on it.

Saquon Barkley NFL Comeback Player of the Year Odds 

Preseason: +550 (second favorite behind Dak Prescott), BetMGM

OK, now we’re talking. NFL Comeback Player of the Year is the NFL futures market where I think we can make some bank on Saquon Barkley odds because this is all about narrative. Naturally, Dallas Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott is the favorite and rightfully so. He plays for the most popular team, is coming off a broken ankle and showed leadership by sharing his struggles with mental health this past year.

It also helps that Prescott’s team is stacked offensively, which will help him put up stats and, potentially, wins. The only reason why I’m fading Dak and considering Saquon in this spot is I’m not sure Dak is fully healthy. He’s already dealing with a shoulder injury in training camp and if he struggles out of the gate, opposing fans and media won’t hold back on trashing him or the Cowboys.

That’s why I like Barkley in this spot better because there’s less pressure for him to succeed. Sure, he still has doubters to prove wrong but there aren’t a lot of experts out there picking the Giants to make the playoffs and oddsmakers seem to agree with their O/U NFL win total right now at 7.5. 

With so many injuries last season to key players, there are a lot of great candidates for NFL Comeback Player of the Year, but even speaking as a Cowboys fan, I am rooting for Barkley to succeed. If he puts up numbers similar to his rookie season and plays at least 15 games, he’ll win this award over the likes of Prescott, Christian McCaffery or Derwin James.

Verdict: Hammer it!

Saquon Barkley Rushing Yards O/U

O/U 1,150 (-110, BetMGM)

I’m going way over on Saquon Barkley’s yardage prop, which is set at 1,150 yards. This one almost seems fishy with how low it is. In his rookie season, Barkley played all 16 games, put up 1,307 yards and, to be honest, kinda struggled in some spots. He only had seven 100-yard games and the most he got in one game was 170. Not to scoff at that achievement but there’s so much room for growth. 

In his second year, he was limited to 13 games but still had 1,003 yards rushing for a team that struggled to run-block and finished 4-12 on the season. He then missed nearly all of the 2020 season with a torn ACL. The good news is reports out of training camp is he’s expected to get nearly all the reps, has looked sharped on his cuts and should be eased back into action by Week 1.

That’s why I’m taking the over 1,150 yards because with nearly a full year of rehab, a 17th game and the Giants having an improved WR room with Kenny Golladay, teams won’t be able to stack the box against him on obvious run plays. Even if Saquon only plays 15 games, I fully expect him to top this mark and get back to the 1,300 rushing yard plateau.

Verdict: HAMMER IT!

Saquon Barkley Rushing Touchdowns 

O/U – H2O/U 9 (-110, BetMGM)

Saquon Barkley rushing touchdowns is the one I’m on the fence with, because I feel like I can make a case either way. I don’t trust the Giants offense enough to do the right thing and give Barkley all the touches in the red zone, but I trust Saquon enough that if they give him the rock, he’ll score. 

He had 11 rushing touchdowns in his rookie season but only six in his sophomore season. With Devontae Booker, Alfred Morris and Corey Clement in-house for Giants running backs, I could potentially see a lot of shenanigans from head coach Joe Judge and using Saquon as the RB between the 20s. Based on talent, he should easily have 10 or more rushing touchdowns but if the Giants get in positions where they are trailing games, they’ll abandon the run and get pass-happy.

Verdict: Take the over, but I don’t love it.