Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Sunday morning kicks off bright and early with the second international game of the season, featuring the Jets taking on the Vikings in London. It’s a #RevengeGame for Sam Darnold, who has turned his career around under Kevin O’Connell and is playing at an MVP level, leading the NFL in passing touchdowns (11) and passer rating (118.9) through the first month of the season. Minnesota is one of only two remaining undefeated teams entering Week 5, ranked No. 1 overall in DVOA as a team (41.5%) and on defense (-34.5%).
The Jets on the other hand haven’t had nearly the same success, coming off an ugly loss to Bo Nix and the Broncos, bringing their record down to an even .500 (2-2). Even with Aaron Rodgers at the helm, the offense has struggled to find its footing ranked bottom-12 in DVOA (-4.8%, 22nd), averaging less than 300 yards (294.8) and only 19 points per game. The defense has played its part though, ranked fifth in scoring, one spot below the Vikings, holding their opponents to the second-fewest yards (256.5) per game.
That said, the 2.5 spread calls for a competitive matchup, without a lot of scoring, currently sitting at a 40.5 game total.
New York Jets vs. Minnesota Vikings (London)
(Vikings -2.5, O/U 40.5, FanDuel Sportsbook)
Garrett Wilson 3+ Receptions And 25+ Receiving Yards
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- At least 4 receptions on 6 targets and 33-plus receiving yards in four full games with Aaron Rodgers, averaging five grabs on 8.5 targets for 47.8 yards, leading the Jets with a 23.3% target share.
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- Team-high 97.3% route participation rate, leading the NFL.
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- Minnesota allows the second-most targets (27.5), receptions (17.3), and receiving yards (221.5) per game to opposing wide receivers.
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- Per the DVOA-Adjusted Fantasy Points Against Tool, wide receivers see a 35% boost in production against the Vikings, the third-highest rate in the league.
Justin Jefferson 4+ Receptions
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- At least 4 receptions on 6 targets in all four games with Sam Darnold, leading the Vikings in route participation rate (91.5%), target share (24.8%), and air-yard share (41.7%).
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- 120 DYAR, ranked fourth among all wide receivers.
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- 71.6 rating on the WR/CB matchup tool, 12th highest on the week, facing Sauce Gardner as the primary defender.
Breece Hall 25+ Rushing Yards
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- At least 54 rushing yards in seven out of the last eight games (87.5%), dating back to last season, averaging 18 carries for 75.9 yards on the ground during that span.
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- Double-digit carries in every game with Aaron Rodgers, leading the Jets with a 56.6% rushing share, tied for 12th in the NFL.
Aaron Jones 25+ Rushing And Receiving Yards
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- At least 16 touches and 68 scrimmage yards in all four games with the Vikings, averaging 20 combined carries and receptions for 116 total yards.
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- Team-high 36.2% opportunity share, fifth highest in the NFL, averaging the eighth most opportunities (20.8) per game, seeing 25-plus combined carries and in back-to-back games.
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- 80 touches on the season, the seventh most among all players in Weeks 1-4.
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- At least 24 touches and 139 yards from scrimmage in back-to-back games, trailing only Derrick Henry (53 touches, 383 scrimmage yards) in both categories (41 touches, 194 scrimmage yards) during that span.
New York Jets +28.5 Spread
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- +2.5 underdogs on the “road,” playing on a neutral field in London.
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- Top 12 in the NFL in point differential (+14, 11th), yet to lose by more than 13 points in any game this season.
Under 69.5 Total Points
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- The Vikings are first overall in DVOA on defense (-34.5%), ranked No. 1 against both the pass (-35.2%) and the rush (-32.6%), allowing the second fewest rushing yards (75) and fourth fewest points (14.8) per game to their opponents.
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- The Jets are top 12 in DVOA against the pass (-6.5%, 11th), allowing the second-fewest passing (512)/total yards (256.5) and the fifth-fewest points (15.5) per game to their opponents.
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- Neither team has surpassed a 60-point game total in eight combined games this season.
Same Game Parlay
-125, FanDuel Sportsbook
- Garrett Wilson 3+ Receptions And 25+ Receiving Yards
- Justin Jefferson 4+ Receptions
- Breece Hall 25+ Rushing Yards
- Aaron Jones 25+ Rushing And Receiving Yards
- New York Jets +28.5 Spread
- Under 69.5 Total Points
