Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Looking to scratch an action itch? You bet we got you covered. Every day our ravenous bettors scour the web for their favorite player props to boost the bankroll. Today’s featured line comes from Eliot Crist.
Adam Thielen OVER 84.5 receptions (1 unit) — FoxBet
This offseason, the Minnesota Vikings traded Stefon Diggs to the Buffalo Bills, breaking up one of the best receiving tandems in the NFL. While they did draft Justin Jefferson in the first round — who I am admittedly bullish on — Thielen is set to see as many targets as he can handle.
- Thielen broke out in 2016, finishing with 69 catches for 967 yards and 5 touchdowns. He established himself as one of the league's best route runners and the Vikings top target. He followed that up with more than 2,500 yards and 204 catches in 2017 and 2018, before getting hurt last season.
- In 2017 and 2018, Thielen saw 153 targets on a 25% share (2018) and 144 targets on a 27% share (2017). Last year, he was only healthy for seven games, but still saw 22% of his team's targets. Now with Diggs gone, another 21% of the targets open up and he is just competing with tight ends, a rookie who missed time due to landing on the Reserve/COVID-19 list, and players like Bisi Johnson. Thielen is set to be a target hog and has a chance at a 100-catch season.
- Right now, on FoxBet, Thielen has an 84.5-catch prop. That might seem high on the surface, as only eight players went over this mark last season. All eight had an average depth of target under 13 yards; Thielen’s has hovered around a 10-yard aDOT yards in his career. Lower average depth of targets leads to a higher catch rate and slot receivers tend to have the highest catch rates. The high number for his role is not intimidating.
- Not only is Thielen far and away the best receiver on his team, but he gets a more pass-happy offensive coordinator this year. Last year, the Vikings only threw the ball 29.2 times per game, the third-lowest average in the league. In comes Gary Kubiak, a run-friendly coordinator, but someone who finished top 18 in pass attempts per game the last five seasons he was the man in charge of the offense. Finishing top 18 last season would have increased the Vikings pass attempts by over four attempts per game, one more for Thielen with a 25% target share projection.
With his running mate gone, fully healthy and with a more pass-happy coordinator, Thielen is in for a big bounceback season. His catch prop at FoxBet is too low at 84.5, and that makes him a one-unit bet on the over.
