Prime-Time First TD Bets — Sunday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Can Week 8 around the NFL be a higher-scoring week — both in real and fantasy football points — than Week 7?
No, probably not. However, there are still a ton of interesting plays to consider in the daily fantasy space. Let’s take a look at some of the props over on PrizePicks that stand out the most this weekend.
If you haven’t played over at PrizePicks yet, it’s simple. Choose whether you believe a player goes over or under their given prop. You pick in groups of two, three or four, with players getting a larger payout for larger parlays.
- Two-pick entry pays 2.5x
- Three-pick entry pays 5x
- Four-pick entry pays 10x
Let’s look at Week 8, shall we?
Scoring breakdown for PrizePicks contests can be found here.
Kareem Hunt, RB, Cleveland Browns (vs. LV)
Projected score: 18.5 points; the pick: OVER
We’ve yet to see that slate-breaking game from Hunt since he’s taken over the starting job in Cleveland. However, the floor has been very high, and he’s eclipsed this total in three different games this season, one back in Week 3 with Nick Chubb active. Still the lead back on an offense calling run at the second-highest rate in the NFL (49.2%), Hunt finds himself in a great spot, hosting the Raiders and their awful run defense. A whopping 50% of the touchdowns surrendered by Las Vegas this season have come on the ground, the third-highest rate in football. Meanwhile, they are also allowing a league-worst 2.0 rushing touchdowns per contest and are third in the NFL in missed tackles with 59. Averaging 19.6 touches per game over his last three starts, I expect Hunt to not only eclipse that mark Sunday but the fantasy point total, too.
Darren Waller, TE, Las Vegas Raiders (@ CLE)
Projected score: 15.0 points; the pick: OVER
Let’s stay in the same game, shall we? Last week, I touted Tyler Boyd in this column, and he smashed for over 100 yards and a touchdown. The main reason why? The Browns cannot defend the slot. And yes, Waller is a tight end, but he is often used as a big slot wide receiver. A healthy 22.7% of his targets this season have come from the slot, good for the sixth-highest rate among tight ends with at least 15 targets on the year. Cleveland, meanwhile, is surrendering 10.3 targets per game (second-most), 7.4 receptions per game (third-most) and 22.5 fantasy points per game (most) to the slot on the season. Cleveland can also be had against tight ends and this Las Vegas passing game should once again funnel through Waller. Oh, and speaking of funnels, this Browns defense is a pass funnel, as 75.7% of the yardage allowed by Cleveland has come through the air, the fifth-highest rate in the league.
DeVante Parker, WR, Miami Dolphins (vs. LAR)
Projected score: 12.0 points; the pick: UNDER
This isn’t a massive number, but I am definitely tempering expectations with this Miami passing game this week. For starters, we just aren’t quite sure what things will look like with Tua Tagovailoa under center for the Dolphins. We knew receivers were getting the ball with Ryan Fitzpatrick under center. Over the last two seasons, over 20% of Fitzpatrick’s pass attempts have been into tight windows, a top-five rate in the NFL during that span. I’m just a bit unsure of how aggressive Tua will be under center. Secondly, while he won’t be shadowed by Jalen Ramsey, this is still a tough matchup for Parker. No team is allowing fewer yards per completion this season than the Rams (8.9), while Los Angeles is also coughing up just 5.3 fantasy points per game to opposing wide receivers aligned on the right side of the formation, the lowest mark in the league.
Jonathan Taylor, RB, Indianapolis Colts (@ DET)
Projected score: 16.5 points; the pick: OVER
If not now, when? We have seen rookie running backs in the past see an uptick in usage and involvement following a bye week. In fact, we already saw it this year, with D’Andre Swift in Detroit back in Week 6. Enter Taylor, who prior to Indianapolis’ Week 7 bye sported a season-best 73% touch rate against the Browns, while handling 12-of-13 running back carries. He gives this offense so much more than Nyheim Hines and Jordan Wilkins and this is a great matchup for him to get going. The Lions are allowing 1.5 rushing touchdowns per game this season, good for the fourth-most in the NFL, while Detroit has also been one of the worst goal-line defenses in football. And while it was tilting, I can assure you that Trey Burton is not all of a sudden the goal-line back for the Colts.
