Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Somehow we are already onto Week 5 of the NFL season. It doesn’t seem fair that as long as the season takes to get here, it seemingly flies by twice as fast.
If you haven’t played over at PrizePicks yet, it’s simple. Choose whether you believe a player goes over or under their given prop. You pick in groups of two, three or four, with players getting a larger payout for larger parlays.
- Two-pick entry pays 2.5x
- Three-pick entry pays 5x
- Four-pick entry pays 10x
Let’s look at Week 5, shall we?
Scoring breakdown for PrizePicks contests can be found here.
James Robinson, RB, Jacksonville Jaguars (@ HOU)
Projected score: 17.5 points; the pick: OVER
I really, really love Robinson. There, I said it. The undrafted free agent has not only become the lead back in Jacksonville but has produced like a top running back so far this season. He’s been over 100 scrimmage yards in three of four games this season, and only the Saints Alvin Kamara has more receiving yards among running backs than Robinson’s 161. Over 90% of the Jaguars’ running back carries have gone to Robinson, who has also seen 100% of the team’s carries from inside the 5-yard line. Meanwhile, his 80.6% opportunity share is fourth among all running backs. Now he gets a smash matchup against the Texans, who have been destroyed on the ground. 46.2% of the yardage surrendered by Houston has come via the run, the highest rate in the NFL, while opposing offenses are calling run 54.5% of the time, also the highest rate in the league.
D.J. Moore, WR, Carolina Panthers (@ ATL)
Projected score: 15.5 points; the pick: OVER
Look, I get it. Moore has been underwhelming so far this season, while it looks like Robby Anderson is the WR1 for the Panthers. However, this is one of those “if it doesn’t happen here, it isn’t going to happen” spots. The Falcons once again sport one of the friendliest defenses in the league, allowing 3.07 points per drive thus far, the third-most in football. Moore also gets a favorable cornerback matchup, facing Isaiah Oliver, who has surrendered 19 catches for 277 yards and three touchdowns in coverage through the first four weeks of play. He is also allowing nearly 15 yards per catch and over two fantasy points per target, giving Moore plenty of potential in this matchup.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire, RB, Kansas City Chiefs (vs. LV)
Projected score: 19.0 points; the pick: OVER
Nineteen points is a pretty high number, especially considering Edwards-Helaire has really only had one great game so far. However, he is on the verge of a huge game and I think it comes Sunday against the Raiders. For starters, CEH had matchups with the Chargers, Patriots and Ravens over the last three weeks — this is easily the best spot of the season for the rookie running back, facing a Las Vegas defense allowing more fantasy points per game to opposing backfields than any other team in football. Edwards-Helaire has seen 85.7% of Kansas City’s carries from inside the 5-yard line thus far, the third-highest rate in the NFL. And after failing to catch a pass in Week 1, CEH has now hauled in 14-of-17 targets over the last three weeks of action.
Miles Sanders, RB, Philadelphia Eagles (@ PIT)
Projected score: 14.5 points; the pick: UNDER
You won’t see me recommending many players against this Steelers defense this season. They’re just that good but especially against the run. The Steelers are stuffing 31% of carries at or behind the line of scrimmage this season, easily the highest rate in football. That is a concern for any team but especially for an Eagles unit that continues to lose pieces to their offensive line. With the Steelers also generating pressure at the highest rate in football, we could see a handful of checkdowns to Sanders, but I really don’t envision a very efficient outing from him here. Oh, and to make things worse, Pittsburgh is well-rested after having Week 3 off.
Joe Mixon, RB, Cincinnati Bengals (@ BAL)
Projected score: 15.0 points; the pick: UNDER
Mixon enjoyed a breakout game against the Jaguars last week, but things get a lot tougher for him in Week 5. The Ravens are still a top-tier defense and their offense should be able to put plenty of points on the board. The Bengals are massive underdogs here, which isn’t good for Mixon. Despite catching all six of his targets last week, he still saw Giovani Bernard play the majority of the third downs, which hurts his ceiling. And we’ve definitely seen Bernard stay on the field when Cincinnati is playing fast or in hurry-up mode, which could be the case again in this game.
