MLB Best Bets – Free (Wednesday 5/8)
Josh Gross
After a rough Week 12 around the NFL and fantasy football , all we can do is push forward and move onto Week 13.
We shift our attention back to the main Sunday slate, more specifically, the PrizePicks option for Week 13 action.
If you haven’t played over at PrizePicks yet, it’s simple. Choose whether you believe a player goes over or under their given prop. You pick in groups of two, three or four, with players getting a larger payout for larger parlays.
- Two-pick entry pays 2.5x
- Three-pick entry pays 5x
- Four-pick entry pays 10x
There are a lot of really interesting props on wide receivers this week, while a fantasy superstar running back has seen his prop line absolutely plummet over the last two weeks of action.
Scoring breakdown for PrizePicks contests can be found here.
Justin Jefferson, WR, Minnesota Vikings (vs. JAX)
Projected points: 17.0; the pick: OVER
Yes, I understand Adam Thielen will be back for the Vikings this week. And I am also interested in his prop of 16.5 points, for what it’s worth. However, Jefferson is a straight-up superstar, ranking sixth in fantasy points per target (2.50) and seventh in fantasy points per route run (0.57). Meanwhile, his 2.91 yards per route run ranks second behind only Davante Adams. The concern here is that Minnesota plays with a lead and just gives Dalvin Cook 30 touches in this game. However, Cook is banged up right now, so perhaps they limit his workload a bit, while the Jaguars — despite a 1-11 record — haven’t really been getting blown out this season. Jefferson faces a Jaguars defense that has surrendered a 100-yard game to a wide receiver in seven of the last eight games. He’ll draw coverage from Tre Herndon, who is allowing 13.0 yards per catch and 1.90 fantasy points per target so far this season.
David Montgomery, RB, Chicago Bears (vs. DET)
Projected points: 15.0; the pick: OVER
Montgomery ran well Sunday night, totaling 103 yards on 11 carries against the Packers. He also added five catches for 40 yards and a touchdown in the passing game but now as a home favorite against the Lions, Montgomery should come much closer to 20-plus touches. His 70.3% opportunity share ranks ninth in the NFL and as long as he continues to see that volume, Montgomery should produce in a prime matchup against the Lions, who are coughing up 1.5 rushing touchdowns per game, tied for the most in football. The Lions are also allowing 2.66 points per drive on the year, good for the fourth-most in the league.
A.J. Brown, WR, Tennessee Titans (vs. CLE)
Projected points: 15.8; the pick: OVER
I took the under on Brown last week, and he immediately made me pay with a 69-yard touchdown against a tough Colts defense. After watching him make me look stupid, I’m instilling confidence in Brown in this matchup against a depleted Cleveland secondary. Denzel Ward is once again unlikely to play, while Greedy Williams still has no timetable for his return. I think Brown can take advantage of this shaky pass defense that is surrendering the ninth-most receptions per game to opposing wideouts on the left side of the formation (4.3), where he lines up 61% of the time. He’ll also see plenty of coverage from Terrance Mitchell, who has 4.63 speed and should be at a disadvantage here.
Nick Chubb, RB, Cleveland Browns (@ TEN)
Projected points: 16.8; the pick: OVER
In three games since returning from injury, all Chubb has done is rush for 100-plus yards three times to go along with a pair of touchdowns. During that span, Chubb ranks second in the league in rushing yards (384), first in yards after contact per attempt (4.71) and second in avoided tackles per rush (0.30). Last week, he went back to receiving more of the short-yardage work than Kareem Hunt, while touching the football 22 times. Cleveland is still running the ball at the second-highest rate in the NFL (52.0%) and now they face a Tennessee defense that has struggled to stop opposing offenses from scoring, surrendering a touchdown on just over 72% of opposing red zone trips, the third-worst rate in the league. Chubb even hauled in three passes last week and if we manage to see that again, he should smash this line of 16.8 points.
