Prime-Time First TD Bets — Sunday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Week 10 of the NFL season is here and there is no better way to get your fantasy football weekend started off than to start preparing for PrizePicks. There are a ton of really, really interesting games on this slate this weekend and a lot of close calls when it comes to player props.
If you haven’t played over at PrizePicks yet, it’s simple. Choose whether you believe a player goes over or under their given prop. You pick in groups of two, three or four, with players getting a larger payout for larger parlays.
- Two-pick entry pays 2.5x
- Three-pick entry pays 5x
- Four-pick entry pays 10x
Let’s look at Week 10, shall we?
Scoring breakdown for PrizePicks contests can be found here.
Aaron Jones, RB, Green Bay Packers (vs. JAX)
Projected score: 18.2 points; the pick: OVER
Jones returned from a two-week absence with a calf injury last Thursday night and despite reports of him being limited, the All Pro running back touched the ball 25 times for the Packers. The production wasn’t anything to write home about (79 total yards) but more importantly, he didn’t suffer any setbacks in the game and is ready to roll for Week 10. The Packers are 13-point home favorites against the Jaguars, a defense that is surrendering the most points per drive in the NFL (3.01). Meanwhile, Green Bay leads the league in points per drive on the offensive end (3.21), setting Jones up for a bunch of scoring opportunities. The Jaguars are also coughing up 1.4 rushing touchdowns per game on the year, tied for the third-most in football. And over the last three weeks, that number climbs to a whopping two per contest. Look for Jones to cross the goal line multiple times Sunday afternoon.
Sterling Shepard, WR, New York Giants (vs. PHI)
Projected score: 12.5 points; the pick: OVER
Shepard is averaging eight targets per game since Daniel Jones took over as the Giants starting quarterback last season and continues to offer a strong floor in fantasy. New York sat Golden Tate last week, who is now suddenly nursing a knee injury. With Tate sidelined, Shepard moved back into the slot, lining up there 66.7% of the time last week, which is notable when you consider he is more effective throughout his career when inside. When the Giants last faced the Eagles, Darius Slay shadowed Darius Slayton on 88.6% of his routes so I’d expect him to follow him around the formation again this week. That should open things up for Shepard, who found the end zone during the first meeting with Philadelphia.
Antonio Gibson, RB, Washington Football Team (@ DET)
Projected score: 11.5 points; the pick: OVER
J.D. McKissic is getting more attention right now, and while he’s a great play in his own right, don’t sleep on Gibson. He returned to practice in full on Thursday and is ready to roll. His snaps were well below where they normally are last week, but Washington found themselves down 20-3, forcing the offense to throw more. Gibson also only has one third down touch all year long, hurting his upside. However, this seems like a game where Washington could be leading, which is huge for Gibson. The last time they were in control of a game, Gibson had 20 carries. And with Alex Smith at quarterback, Gibson should still get some targets when he’s on the field, as over 36% of Smith’s pass attempts have been behind the line of scrimmage this season. The Lions, meanwhile, are allowing the fourth-most receiving yards per game to opposing backfields (51.6).
Robert Woods, WR, Los Angeles Rams (vs. SEA)
Projected score: 15.5 points; the pick: OVER
You should always expect great things from receivers against the Seattle Seahawks. In eight games this season, Seattle has allowed six quarterbacks to throw for 300 yards, with Nick Mullens throwing for 240 yards in just one half of play back in Week 8. Woods moves around the formation but over 80% of his routes come from either the slot or the right side of the field. Seattle is dead last in fantasy points allowed to the right side, left side and the slot this season, while Woods would be in line to see coverage from the struggling Quinton Dunbar, who is allowing 2.10 fantasy points per target and four touchdowns in coverage so far this season.
DeAndre Hopkins, WR, Arizona Cardinals (vs. BUF)
Projected score: 20.0 points; the pick: UNDER
After seeing an absurd target share all season long, it was pretty shocking to see Hopkins targeted just three times last week. He drew a handful of pass interference calls, but it was Christian Kirk who paced the team with eight targets. Now Hopkins will likely see some form of shadow coverage from Tre'Davious White, who is one of the three best corners in the NFL. These two have squared off a few times in the past and Hopkins had solid games, but not 20-point outings. Meanwhile, Buffalo’s defense as a unit is beginning to figure some things out, while Arizona still wants to run the football, giving Chase Edmonds 25 carries a week ago. I’m not saying completely fade Hopkins in all formats because of the matchup but I do think 20 points is a rather high number this week.
