Prime-Time Props — Week 18 Saturday Game (CIN/PIT)

We have all four teams in the AFC North in action this Saturday. The Ravens will face the Browns needing a win to secure the division crown. The Steelers will face the Bengals, with Cincinnati needing a win plus a little more magic to make the playoffs, and Pittsburgh looking to win to finalize seeding in the AFC playoff picture. We’ll focus on the Steelers and Bengals game for my last same-game parlay of the regular season.

Cincinnati Bengals @ Pittsburgh Steelers

Andrei Iosivas 25+ Receiving Yards

CINCINNATI, OH - DECEMBER 10: Cincinnati Bengals wide receiver Andrei Iosivas (80) before the game against the Indianapolis Colts and the Cincinnati Bengals on December 10, 2023, at Paycor Stadium in Cincinnati, OH. (Photo by Ian Johnson/Icon Sportswire) — CINCINNATI, OH – DECEMBER 10: Cincinnati Bengals wide receiver Andrei Iosivas (80) before the game against the Indianapolis Colts and the Cincinnati Bengals on December 10, 2023, at Paycor Stadium in Cincinnati, OH. (Photo by Ian Johnson/Icon Sportswire)

Iosivas has become a reliable No. 3 option at receiver for the Bengals. He’s exceeded 25 receiving yards in 11 of 16 games this season, averaging 29 per game. Per StatsHub, He is second on the team in route participation (78.9%) and snap share (75.8%). Saturday’s matchup against the Steelers allows Iosivas to take advantage of a plus matchup, as Pittsburgh has struggled to defend opposing WR3s. Per FTN’s DVOA-Adjusted Fantasy Points Against Tool, the Steelers have allowed opposing WR3s to produce at a rate 15% above the league average.

Pat Freiermuth 30+ Receiving Yards

The Bengals’ defense has been a smash spot for opposing tight ends all season. Per FTN’s DVP Tool, Cincinnati has allowed the third most receiving yards per game to tight ends (64.3 YPG). Pat Freiermuth comes into week 18 fresh from a game where he saw his season high in targets (8). Freiermuth has exceeded 40 receiving yards in five of his last six head-to-head meetings with the Bengals, averaging 63 yards per game. Per FTN’s DVOA-Adjusted Fantasy Points Against Tool, Cincinnati has been the worst defense against tight ends in the league, allowing them to produce at a rate 40% above the league average.

George Pickens 60+ Receiving Yards

Pickens made his return to the Pittsburgh offense in Week 17 after missing the previous two games with a hamstring injury. I look for him to be back in rhythm after getting his first game back out of the way. The Bengals’ secondary has allowed the fifth-most yards after the catch this season (1,953) and the 12th-highest highlight throw rate (3.0) to opposing QBs. Pickens is 100 yards away from his second consecutive 1,000-yard season, so I expect an assertive effort from Russell Wilson to help his young receiver reach that milestone. Pickens has exceeded 60 receiving yards in seven of 13 games this season, averaging 69 per game. He’s dominated the Bengals in the last four head-to-head meetings, exceeded 60 yards in three of those games, and averaged 102 yards per game across that stretch.

Mike Gesicki 3+ Receptions

Gesicki has had at least three receptions in 10 of 16 games this season, averaging 3.6 per game. He ranks third in target share for Cincinnati at (11.2%), and third in receiving yards (597). Pittsburgh has allowed the sixth-most receptions per game to opposing tight ends (5.8). The Steelers have allowed an opposing tight to get three or more receptions in eight of their last 10 games.