NFL Survivor/Eliminator Picks: Week 14

In my NFL Survivor/NFL Eliminator column a week ago, I mentioned that it was the worst I felt about a pick all season. I thought I had a winner, but there were enough warning signs for every candidate that I was uneasy.

My pick (the Commanders) led 7-0 within the first three minutes of the game and 28-0 a few minutes into the second quarter.

This week (spoiler!), I feel about as good about my pick as I realistically could. I don’t really see a way for my pick to come up short. Which … I mean, overconfidence is a bad omen. I’m jinxing myself already. Let’s just go.

This is my NFL Survivor pick for Week 14. As always, I’m starting with all 32 teams and eliminating them bit by bit until I get to my final few contenders and, ultimately, my choice of the week.

NFL Survivor Picks for Week 14

First, the byes:

Baltimore Ravens
Denver Broncos
Houston Texans
Indianapolis Colts
New England Patriots
Washington Commanders

There are some decent teams in there! And also the Colts and Patriots!

Anyway, six down.

Thursday

Thursdays remain weird. I’m just never going to consider teams in the weirdest of spots.

Detroit Lions (vs. Green Bay)
Green Bay Packers (@ Detroit)

Spoiler: Ain’t no way I was going to pick either of these teams against one another anyway. We’re down eight teams, 24 to go.

They’re Too Bad

Sure, Team No. 31 will beat No. 32 more often than not. But when you’re digging that deep, I’m just not interested in tying my fate to them.

Carolina Panthers (@ Philadelphia)
Chicago Bears (@ San Francisco)
Cincinnati Bengals (@ Dallas)
Cleveland Browns (@ Pittsburgh)
Dallas Cowboys (vs. Cincinnati)
Jacksonville Jaguars (@ Tennessee)
Las Vegas Raiders (@ Tampa Bay)
Miami Dolphins (vs. NY Jets)
New Orleans Saints (@ NY Giants)
New York Giants (vs. New Orleans)
New York Jets (@ Miami)
Tennessee Titans (vs. Jacksonville)

That’s 12 more teams, meaning we have 12 left.

Tough Matchups

Just a blanket “Oh, [that team] vs. [that team]? I’m out. Too close in value; not worth the heartache.” There aren’t as many of these this week as last week’s marquee-fest, but it’s still a handy way to do some eliminations.

Arizona Cardinals (vs. Seattle)
Kansas City Chiefs (vs. LA Chargers)
Los Angeles Chargers (@ Kansas City)
Seattle Seahawks (@ Arizona)

There weren’t a lot of qualifiers for this category this week, but that’s four more teams gone and eight remaining.

The Contenders

After the elimination process, we’re down to eight teams:

Atlanta Falcons (@ Minnesota)
Buffalo Bills (@ LA Rams)
Los Angeles Rams (vs. Buffalo)
Minnesota Vikings (vs. Atlanta)
Philadelphia Eagles (vs. Carolina)
Pittsburgh Steelers (vs. Cleveland)
San Francisco 49ers (vs. Chicago)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (vs. Las Vegas)

So, I have some notes on those teams:

• The way the Falcons and 49ers have been playing lately, both nearly qualified for the “They’re Too Bad” category, but I gave them some resume credit. Still, no way I’m picking them right now.
• The Rams are good, but the Bills are so good right now. Hard to imagine picking against Buffalo against literally anyone.
• The Steelers just lost to the Browns a couple weeks ago. Of course, that was a Thursday game (weird), a snow game (weird) and in Cleveland (which, come on, Cleveland is a weird city). And of course with Jameis Winston out there (the weirdest), but that remains true. This week, Pittsburgh is at home in a cool-but-no-precipitation weather day. I wouldn’t feel good about picking them, but I wouldn’t think less of anyone doing so.
• Among the contenders here, I’ve already used the Bills, Vikings and Buccaneers, so I can’t use them, but of course you are free to if they are still in your pocket.

The Pick

Each week, you’ll get my No. 1 selection and some honorable mentions.

Philadelphia Eagles (vs. Carolina)

The second-biggest spread of Week 14 is 6.5 points, held by both the Steelers and Buccaneers against, respectively, the Browns and Raiders. The Eagles have a 12-point spread. Bryce Young has been playing much better since returning from his benching. The Eagles faded late last year. If I had to make an argument not to pick the Eagles this week, I could stretch to get to one, but really, this is maybe the easiest pick of the season. (Which means I’ll lose, but oh well.)

Honorable Mention

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (vs. Las Vegas) — if you didn’t use them when I did
Pittsburgh Steelers (vs. Cleveland)

2024 Record: 10-3

Week 1: Bills (W)
Week 2: Ravens (L)
Week 3: Browns (L)
Week 4: Chiefs (W)
Week 5: Seahawks (L)
Week 6: Texans (W)
Week 7: Bengals (W)
Week 8: Broncos (W)
Week 9: Vikings (W)
Week 10: Chargers (W)
Week 11: Packers (W)
Week 12: Buccaneers (W)
Week 13: Commanders (W)
Week 14: Eagles