NFL Survivor/Eliminator Picks: Week 12

I was all set to confess to getting too cute last week, when the Lions were rolling the Jaguars like Jacksonville was a high school squad while the Bears were driving down the field for a game-winning field goal to beat the Packers. After all, in last week’s NFL Survivor/NFL Eliminator advice, I took the Packers even though I was more certain that the Lions will win, under the thinking that the Lions had an easier stretch schedule and I could use them later. Making that decision (and getting called out by the man editing these words, Mike Randle) only to watch my choice lose a rivalry game was just asking for some serious schadenfreude.

Of course, we all know what happened next. The Packers blocked the Bears field goal and won, and my record in this space went to 8-3 on the back of a sixth straight successful pick. Never a doubt.

Which brings us to my NFL Survivor picks for Week 12. As always, I’m starting with all 32 teams and eliminating them bit by bit until I get to my final few contenders and, ultimately, my choice of the week.

NFL Survivor Picks for Week 12

First off, we have six bye teams. Easy eliminations!

Atlanta Falcons
Buffalo Bills
Cincinnati Bengals
Jacksonville Jaguars
New Orleans Saints
New York Jets

Six down.

Thursday

Thursdays remain weird. I’m just never going to consider teams in the weirdest of spots.

Cleveland Browns (vs. Pittsburgh)
Pittsburgh Steelers (@ Cleveland)

Do I think the Steelers beat the Browns? Yeah, pretty heartily. But if there’s a time for them to hit a wall, a weird Thursday coming off a drag-out game against the Ravens is the time. Two more gone, 24 to go.

They’re Too Bad

Carolina Panthers (vs. Kansas City)
Chicago Bears (vs. Minnesota)
Dallas Cowboys (@ Washington)
Indianapolis Colts (vs. Detroit)
Las Vegas Raiders (vs. Denver)
New England Patriots (@ Miami)
New York Giants (vs. Tampa Bay)
Tennessee Titans (@ Houston)

That’s eight more teams, meaning we have 16 left.

Tough Matchups

Just a blanket “Oh, [that team] vs. [that team]? I’m out. Not worth the heartache.” There aren’t as many of these this week as last week’s marquee-fest, but it’s still a handy way to do some eliminations.

Arizona Cardinals (@ Seattle)
Baltimore Ravens (@ LA Chargers)
Green Bay Packers (vs. San Francisco)
Los Angeles Chargers (vs. Baltimore)
Los Angeles Rams (vs. Philadelphia)
Philadelphia Eagles (@ LA Rams)
San Francisco 49ers (@ Green Bay)
Seattle Seahawks (vs. Arizona)

Eight more, so at the very least, this has been a very consistent drop in teams. Eight to go.

The Contenders

After the elimination process, we’re down to eight teams:

Denver Broncos (@ Las Vegas)
Detroit Lions (@ Indianapolis)
Houston Texans (vs. Tennessee)
Kansas City Chiefs (@ Carolina)
Miami Dolphins (vs. New England)
Minnesota Vikings (@ Chicago)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (@ NY Giants)
Washington Commanders (vs. Dallas)

Just speaking of my personal picks, I’ve already used four of these in this space (Denver, Houston, Kansas City and Minnesota, a cool 4-for-4, so thanks, fellas). Let’s talk about the whole group and see if we can find some reasons to knock some out:

• Our Mike Randle gave his reasons why the Lions might be primed for a letdown week against the Colts, and while I’m not necessarily a believer, it’s not unconvincing.
• Could the Giants get a bump from the QB change?
• Are the Commanders falling off in a big enough way that we want to roll with the Cowboys and Cooper Rush (or Trey Lance)?
• The Dolphins are rounding into form and look better and better. On the flip side, so does Drake Maye
• The Texans’ greatest strength on offense has been the incredible Fountain of Youth season from Joe Mixon. Well, now he’s running into a Tennessee defense that is eighth in run defense DVOA. A few months ago, “Well, can C.J. Stroud get it done?” would be an eye-rollingly silly question, but with the second-year man hitting a bit of a sophomore slump, it’s not so dumb to ask now.

The Pick

Each week, you’ll get my No. 1 selection and some honorable mentions.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (@ NY Giants)

Both of these teams are coming off a bye. Tampa Bay might be getting Mike Evans back, while the Giants are definitely getting Tommy DeVito back. One of those things is good news for the team! Both of them are good news for my pick.

Honorable Mention

Detroit Lions (@ Indianapolis)
Kansas City Chiefs (@ Carolina) — if you didn’t use them when I did

2024 Record: 8-3

Week 1: Bills (W)
Week 2: Ravens (L)
Week 3: Browns (L)
Week 4: Chiefs (W)
Week 5: Seahawks (L)
Week 6: Texans (W)
Week 7: Bengals (W)
Week 8: Broncos (W)
Week 9: Vikings (W)
Week 10: Chargers (W)
Week 11: Packers (W)
Week 12: Buccaneers