Week 12 NFL Moneyline Underdogs

The FTN moneyline underdogs are on absolute fire. 

Three weeks? Three straight underdog victories. Carolina in Week 10, Pittsburgh in both Week 11 and Week 12. 

Each week, I will give you my favorite moneyline underdogs who I believe have the best chance to pull the outright upset. These are high-risk plays for a reason — they will not hit at a normal rate. However, when they do hit, we often get enough of a payout to keep our bankroll replenished. 

There won’t be a fixed number of games. It could be one, two or even three underdogs I like for the week. Here’s a look at my favorite moneyline underdog for Week 12 of the 2024 season.

Week 12 NFL Moneyline Underdogs

Colts +7.5 vs. Lions

(+330, DraftKings Sportsbook)

This is the absolute pinnacle of the market on the Lions, who are coming off a dominant 52-6 blasting of the Jaguars. They now travel on the road to face a Colts team who earned their second road win of the season, a 28-27 upset at the Jets. 

Indianapolis has been great against the spread, residing with the third-best ATS record (8-3). They are 4-1 ATS at home, including 2-1 as a home underdog. Colts quarterback Anthony Richardson played his best all-around game of the season, completing 66% of his passes for 272 yards with three total touchdowns. Indianapolis still has a strong offensive line and should be able to run the ball with the versatile Richardson back under center. The Colts wide receivers should be able to find success against a Detroit defense that ranks fourth worst in DVOA-adjusted fantasy points against to opposing WR1s and third worst to opposing WR3s. The speedy Indianapolis wideouts (Josh Downs, Alec Pierce, Adonai Mitchell) will have opportunities for big plays down the field. 

The Colts defense is much better at generating pressure at home, ranking sixth-best with 3.2 sacks per game. Detroit has won eight straight games and are a perfect 5-0 on the road. With two divisional matchups against the Bears (Thanksgiving) and Packers upcoming, this is the ideal sleepy spot for a Detroit team that hasn’t slowed down all season. 

With a substantial 7.5-point spread, I’m betting Richardson’s strong play continues one more week as a big home underdog. At +330, this would be the cherry on top of our ML underdog season, cashing a huge hit for a fourth-straight week. 

Risk

1 Unit to Win 3.30 Units