Best MLB Bets Today – Free (Friday 5/3)
Adam Strangis
With not much left in the way of big offseason events that will change teams’ futures, our eyes can truly turn toward the season to come, preparing for fantasy football drafts and looking forward to what we need to know for success in 2022. With that in mind, all summer long, I’ll be using our FTN Fantasy Splits Tool to look at some of the key situations to know for the season. The Splits Tool allows you to experiment with situations with active/inactive players, spreads, locations, and more to help you get a picture of everything you need for your fantasy football season. Sign up for an FTN Fantasy subscription now to experiment with the tool as you prepare for your season.
No Pack, No
Since Matt LaFleur took over as the head coach in 2019, the Green Bay Packers have won three straight NFC North championships and 13 games each season. After consecutive playoff losses in the Conference Championship in the 2019 and 2020 seasons, the Packers were upset by the San Francisco 49ers in the Divisional Round in the most recent playoffs. Aaron Rodgers has had a complicated relationship with the front office and reportedly contemplated retirement entering the offseason. The Rodgers saga came to an end after he signed a three-year, $150 million extension to remain in Green Bay, making him the highest-paid player in the NFL at the time. The deal allowed the Packers to get under the salary cap and place the franchise tag on their All-Pro wide receiver Davante Adams. Last season, Adams set franchise records in receptions (123) and receiving yards (1,553), trailing only Cooper Kupp for the NFL lead. He also finished top five in targets (169) and receiving touchdowns (11). The Packers were gearing up to make a Super Bowl run until Adams refused to play under the franchise. Unable to reach a long-term agreement, the Packers made a blockbuster move, sending Adams to the Las Vegas Raiders in exchange for a 2022 first- and second-round picks. Today, I will be breaking down the impact of Adams’ absence since LaFleur’s arrival.
You can listen to the entire Packers team preview on episode 22 of the FTN Datacast.
Aaron Rodgers, QB
Aaron Rodgers has turned back the clock, winning the AP NFL MVP in back-to-back seasons. Since 2020, Rodgers has thrown for 8,414 yards and a league-high 85 touchdowns. Adams has played a critical role in Rodgers’ resurgence, accounting for 33% of the Packers’ targets and 38% of the team’s air yards. Although Adam’s elite production cannot be replaced, Rodgers has been slightly better without Adams since Matt LaFleur came to Green Bay. In seven games without Adams, Rodgers has had an increase in pass attempts, passing yards, passing touchdowns, and even rushing yards. He’s finished as a top-six QB in two consecutive seasons, but our FTN staff consensus has him just outside QB1 territory at QB14.
Allen Lazard, WR
After Adams’ departure, the Packers used the second-round restricted tender on Allen Lazard. Lazard had a strong 2021 campaign, setting career highs in catches (40), receiving yards (513) and touchdowns (8). Over the past three seasons, his production has increased across the board in four games without Adams. Expectations are set high for Lazard as the WR1 in Green Bay. Rodgers said he believes he’s ready to take the next step and become a No. 1 wide receiver and even (with tongue in cheek, perhaps) called him a Hall of Famer. Free agent addition Sammy Watkins and second-round pick Christian Watson have landed on the NFI and PUP list to begin training camp, further solidifying Lazard’s role in the offense. Lazard is poised for a breakout season, but it’s worth noting that as an undrafted free agent, he has yet to catch over 40 passes and has only eclipsed 500 receiving yards once in five seasons.
Jeff Ratcliffe has Lazard among his 15 Players to Target at ADP on Sleeper.
Aaron Jones, RB
After back-to-back 1,000-yard seasons, Aaron Jones took a step back as a rusher last year. In 15 games, he carried the ball 171 times for 799 yards and tied for a career-low four touchdowns. However, he was much for involved as a receiver, catching a career-high 52 passes for 391 yards and six touchdowns. His 65 targets were second on the team behind only Adams’ 169. Since 2019, he has been one of only four running backs to average at least 2.0 yards per route run lined up in the slot or out wide. In the seven games without Adams, Jones received a significant boost in the receiving game and was also more productive as a rusher. Although AJ Dillon may carve out a larger role in the rushing department, Jones’ receiving ability is too valuable to keep him off the field.
Robert Tonyan, TE
Former UDFA Robert Tonyan burst onto the scene in 2020, finishing as a top-three tight end. He caught a career-high 52 passes for 586 yards and 11 scores. Tonyan was a favorite of Aaron Rodgers in the red zone, catching 10 of 11 targets for seven touchdowns on a 16.4% target share. However, he took a significant step back in 2021 before suffering a season-ending ACL injury. Through eight games, Tonyan never caught more than four passes and surpassed ten receiving yards just three times. He had a 57.2% route participation rate while leading a tight end by committee. The Packers re-signed Tonyan hoping to have him back for the start of the season. He has been much more productive in the games Davante Adams has missed in the last three seasons. Tonyan can once again serve as a red-zone threat after Adams finished third in red-zone targets (28) a season ago.
