Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
The NFL is back, and so too is the fantasy football splits series, now featuring in-season data. Each week, I’ll be using the FTN Fantasy Splits Tool to look at how changes in environment and situations have impacted teams/players in the past, projecting their outlook going forward. Most of the content will be centered around injuries, thanks to our new partnership with Dr. David Chao and Sports Injury Central. For those of you unfamiliar with the website, it’s a one-stop shop to keep fans, gamblers, and fantasy players up to date on the latest injuries, covering all major sports such as the NFL, CFB, NBA and MLB.
SIC have a new feature – The Injury Edge – Your NFL Matchup Cheat Sheet.
It’s a tool for quickly seeing which teams have a health-based advantage each week using the proven SIC Health Score algorithm.
The SIC Health Score algorithm has seen teams with a 10+ health advantage win at over 58% Against The Spread over 4 NFL seasons!
FTN subscribers can get one free week of premium access to see all of The Injury Edge, plus all of the team and player health scores in SIC Data! Just go to sicscore.com/premium and select the weekly SIC Data subscription, then apply the promo code FTN.
Arizona Cardinals @ Cleveland Browns
Browns -8, O/U 37.5
Cardinals
The Cardinals opened Kyler Murray’s 21-day practice window Oct. 18 but will likely hold him out for one more week. The offense has been functional in Murray’s absence, ranked 19th in DVOA, but that may look very different in Week 10. Joshua Dobbs was traded to the Vikings moments before the deadline, setting up Clayton Tune to make his first career start. The fifth-round rookie will have his work cut out for him in his debut, facing a Browns defense that ranks second in DVOA and No. 2 against the pass.
Marquise Brown should continue to see volume in what projects to be a trailing gamescript, carving out a 29% target share and 41% air yard share since Week 2. As great as Hollywood has been, his ceiling is even higher once Kyler Murray returns to the lineup.
In six games with Murray and without DeAndre Hopkins, Hollywood saw 10.7 targets per game, averaging 7.2 receptions, 80.8 receiving yards and 18.3 PPR points per game. With Dobbs, Brown has surpassed 65 receiving yards just once but ranks second in the NFL in unrealized air yards (521). His 416 receiving yards through eight games is first on the team, but only 15 more than the third-round rookie, Michael Wilson (401), who is the only other player on the roster with over 265 yards through the air. Wilson made it through the entire game in Week 9 but popped up on the injury report Wednesday with a shoulder, listed as a DNP.
Emari Demercado also did not practice, tending to a toe injury.
After playing 79% of the offensive snaps two weeks ago, Demercado posted a 56% snap share this past weekend and did not play in the fourth quarter. Keaontay Ingram saw increased usage with Demercado banged up, posting his highest snap share of the season (37%). Damien Williams was also unavailable for most of the game, exiting in the second quarter with a foot injury. He was placed on the injured reserve list earlier this week and ruled out for the next four games. If Demercado is active, he and Ingram will likely split backfield opportunities with James Conner out for at least one more week. Conner has a chance to return in Week 10 when Murray is set to make his debut.
One of the biggest beneficiaries of Arizona’s mounting injuries was Trey McBride, who finished as the TE1 overall in his first game without Zach Ertz, recording the highest target share at the position this season (40%). He saw 14 passes come his way, catching 10 of them for 95 yards and a touchdown.
Browns
Deshaun Watson returned to practice Wednesday but is still listed as questionable entering Week 10.
With Watson out or playing only a handful of snaps over the last four games, the offense has faltered, barely scoring over 20 points per game (20.3).
The defense has stepped up without their franchise quarterback, carrying the team to an even .500 record over the last month. As eight-point favorites at home, the spread suggests that Cleveland should see a favorable game script regardless of who is under center.
New York Giants @ Las Vegas Raiders
Raiders -1.5, O/U 37
Giants
The Giants offense was abysmal in Week 8, already missing Daniel Jones for a third consecutive game and losing Tyrod Taylor to a rib injury midway through the second quarter. Tommy DeVito took over for the rest of the game, completing two of seven passes for negative-1 yard. Despite totaling just seven yards through the air, including overtime, the G-Men had a legitimate shot to win the game had it not been for a missed 35-yard field goal with 24 seconds left in regulation. Saquon Barkley put the team on his back, totaling a season-high 39 touches for 133 scrimmage yards. Jones has not been great this season but should help the offense get back on track after finally getting cleared for contact Monday.
Unfortunately, he will be without his top-pass catcher, Darren Waller, who also left in the second quarter after reaggravating a hamstring injury.
Daniel Bellinger will likely slot in as the starter in Week 9. He has yet to see more than a single target in any game this season. Before Waller joined the team this offseason, Bellinger was not very involved as a pass catcher, averaging 3.1 targets, 2.5 receptions and 22.2 receiving yards in 13 games including the playoffs.
Raiders
The Raiders cleaned house after an embarrassing loss Monday night, firing general manager Dave Ziegler, head coach Josh McDaniel and offensive coordinator Mick Lombardi. As the Interim head coach, Antonio Pierce announced that the team is ready to make changes, starting with the quarterback, benching Jimmy Garoppolo in favor of Aidan O’Connell in Week 9. O’Connell struggled in his lone start in Week 4, posting a 6.6 QBR, but he still showed enough to command a functional offense. He locked on to Davante Adams and Josh Jacobs, who saw 24 of O’Connell’s 39 dropbacks come their way, combining for a 61.54% target share. Adams led the team with 13 targets, catching eight passes for 71 yards, despite missing time with a sprained AC joint. Jacobs managed to find the end zone on the ground while also recording season-high marks in targets (11), receptions (8) and receiving yards (81). Unfortunately, Jakobi Meyers was the odd man out in the pecking order, catching two of four passes for 33 scoreless yards.
Prop Bets
Seattle Seahawks @ Baltimore Ravens
Ravens -6, O/U 44
DK Metcalf Over 4.5 Receptions
(-125, Bet365)
After missing Week 7 with hip and rib injuries, DK Metcalf made a statement in his return, recording a season-high 39% target share. He caught just five passes but was targeted 14 times and on over 40% of his routes (41%). Much of that can be attributed to the Browns’ stingy defense, ranked No. 2 in total DVOA and against the pass. It doesn’t get much easier against Baltimore, who is first in both categories, but volume is king, and that should be enough to overcome a difficult matchup. With Geno Smith, Metcalf averages 6.6 receptions against opponents that are favored by at least 5.5 points. Although he was held out of practice yesterday, it was likely due to maintenance, logging a full participation two days prior.
Tyler Lockett’s practice participation was the opposite, listed as DNPwith a lingering hamstring injury Wednesday, and upgraded to limited Thursday.
Metcalf out-targeted Lockett for the first time since Week 3 against Cleveland, which may be a trend going forward.
Miami Dolphins @ Kansas City Chiefs
Chiefs -1.5, O/U 51
Tyreek Hill Receiving Yards Leader
(+155, FanDuel Sportsbook)
Tyreek Hill vowed to record 2,000 receiving yards this season, which based on his production thus far may have set the bar low. Through eight games, Hill has already cleared 1,000 yards through the air, averaging a league-high 126.75 receiving yards per game. If there was ever a time for the Cheetah to show out, it would be this upcoming weekend in Germany, facing his former team in a #RevengeGame. There is also a chance that Terron Armstead will be active, returningto practice Wednesday.
A healthier offensive line should help protect Tua Tagovailoa, who may be playing without Robert Hunt in Week 9.
Philadelphia Eagles @ Dallas Cowboys
Eagles -3, O/U 47
A.J. Brown & CeeDee Lamb Each 4+ Receptions, 40+ Receiving Yards
(-145, FanDuel Sportsbook)
A.J. Brown and CeeDee Lamb put on a show this weekend, both surpassing the century mark with 8-plus receptions. Brown has been phenomenal in his last six games, recording 125+ receiving yards in each outing. He is already second in the NFL in air-yard share (47.81%) and WOPR (80.95%) but could see more volume with Jalen Hurts dealing with a knee injury.
In Week 8, Hurts surpassed 310 passing yards for the second time (319), posting a season-low in carries (4) and rushing yards (6). On the other side, CeeDee Lamb put together one of his best performances to date, setting a career-high in receptions (12) and receiving yards (158), finding the end zone twice. In his last two games, Lamb has seen a 32% target share, and 40% air yard share, averaging 10.5 targets, 9.5 receptions, 137.5 receiving yards and a touchdown.
