NFL Splits Tool, Week 9: Big Games to Monitor

The NFL is back, and so too is the fantasy football splits series, now featuring in-season data. Each week, I’ll be using the FTN Fantasy Splits Tool to look at how changes in environment and situations have impacted teams/players in the past, projecting their outlook going forward. Most of the content will be centered around injuries, thanks to our new partnership with Dr. David Chao and Sports Injury Central. For those of you unfamiliar with the website, it’s a one-stop shop to keep fans, gamblers, and fantasy players up to date on the latest injuries, covering all major sports such as the NFL, CFB, NBA and MLB.

SIC have a new feature – The Injury Edge – Your NFL Matchup Cheat Sheet.

It’s a tool for quickly seeing which teams have a health-based advantage each week using the proven SIC Health Score algorithm.
The SIC Health Score algorithm has seen teams with a 10+ health advantage win at over 58% Against The Spread over 4 NFL seasons!
FTN subscribers can get one free week of premium access to see all of The Injury Edge, plus all of the team and player health scores in SIC Data! Just go to sicscore.com/premium and select the weekly SIC Data subscription, then apply the promo code FTN.

Arizona Cardinals @ Cleveland Browns

Browns -8, O/U 37.5

Cardinals 

The Cardinals opened Kyler Murray’s 21-day practice window Oct. 18 but will likely hold him out for one more week. The offense has been functional in Murray’s absence, ranked 19th in DVOA, but that may look very different in Week 10. Joshua Dobbs was traded to the Vikings moments before the deadline, setting up Clayton Tune to make his first career start. The fifth-round rookie will have his work cut out for him in his debut, facing a Browns defense that ranks second in DVOA and No. 2 against the pass. 

Marquise Brown should continue to see volume in what projects to be a trailing gamescript, carving out a 29% target share and 41% air yard share since Week 2. As great as Hollywood has been, his ceiling is even higher once Kyler Murray returns to the lineup. 

In six games with Murray and without DeAndre Hopkins, Hollywood saw 10.7 targets per game, averaging 7.2 receptions, 80.8 receiving yards and 18.3 PPR points per game. With Dobbs, Brown has surpassed 65 receiving yards just once but ranks second in the NFL in unrealized air yards (521). His 416 receiving yards through eight games is first on the team, but only 15 more than the third-round rookie, Michael Wilson (401), who is the only other player on the roster with over 265 yards through the air. Wilson made it through the entire game in Week 9 but popped up on the injury report Wednesday with a shoulder, listed as a DNP. 

Emari Demercado also did not practice, tending to a toe injury. 

After playing 79% of the offensive snaps two weeks ago, Demercado posted a 56% snap share this past weekend and did not play in the fourth quarter. Keaontay Ingram saw increased usage with Demercado banged up, posting his highest snap share of the season (37%). Damien Williams was also unavailable for most of the game, exiting in the second quarter with a foot injury. He was placed on the injured reserve list earlier this week and ruled out for the next four games. If Demercado is active, he and Ingram will likely split backfield opportunities with James Conner out for at least one more week. Conner has a chance to return in Week 10 when Murray is set to make his debut. 

One of the biggest beneficiaries of Arizona’s mounting injuries was Trey McBride, who finished as the TE1 overall in his first game without Zach Ertz, recording the highest target share at the position this season (40%). He saw 14 passes come his way, catching 10 of them for 95 yards and a touchdown. 

Browns

Deshaun Watson returned to practice Wednesday but is still listed as questionable entering Week 10.