Miami Dolphins vs Buffalo Bills Picks, Predictions & Best Bets | TNF Props | Anytime Touchdowns
Chris Meaney
The NFL is back, and so too is the fantasy football splits series, now featuring in-season data. Each week, I’ll be using the FTN Fantasy Splits Tool to look at how changes in environment and situations have impacted teams/players in the past, projecting their outlook going forward. Most of the content will be centered around injuries, thanks to our new partnership with Dr. David Chao and Sports Injury Central. For those of you unfamiliar with the website, it’s a one-stop shop to keep fans, gamblers and fantasy players up to date on the latest injuries, covering all major sports such as the NFL, CFB, NBA and MLB.
Deshaun Watson was something of a surprise inactive in Week 4, ruled out moments before kickoff. In the postgame press conference, Kevin Stefanski stated that the coaching staff was expecting Watson despite being listed as questionable entering the game. Although Watson was medically cleared to suit up, he did not feel comfortable with his shoulder during pregame warmups. As a result, Watson decided to sit out, choosing to avoid further damage one week before the bye. Watson has already been ruled out in Week 6, diagnosed with a shoulder contusion by Sports Injury Central. He currently has a 62 SIC score and could be at risk of missing multiple weeks.
PJ Walker had already been taking reps with the first-team offenses and is now listed as the starter on the depth chart, ahead of Dorian Thompson-Robinson. DTR showed promising signs in the preseason but struggled in his first career start, dropping back 36 times while completing a little over half his passes (52.8%) for 121 scoreless yards and three interceptions. Regardless of who is under center, the matchup doesn’t get much worse than San Francisco who is No. 1 in total DVOA (51.6%), ranked top five at defending the pass (-13.9%). In this article, I’m going to use the Splits Tool to look at how the offense has historically fared with and without Watson since Cleveland traded for him last offseason. Jacoby Brissett started for most of the 2022 season, playing the first 11 games before Watson returned from his suspension. I’ll exclude players who did not have a significant role with the team entering the 2023 season due to the limited sample size.
Amari Cooper, WR
After moving on from Odell Beckham in the middle of the 2021 season and declining to bring back Jarvis Landry in free agency, the Browns found themselves in desperate need of a true No. 1 wide receiver lacking an alpha at the position. They practically stole Amari Cooper from the Cowboys last offseason, sending a 2022 fifth and a pick swap in the sixth round in exchange for the former Pro-Bowler. Cooper took no time getting acclimated with his new team, posting career-high marks in receptions (78), receiving yards (1,160) and touchdowns (9). Most of his damage came alongside Jacoby Brissett, where he saw 8-plus targets per game (8.45), averaging over 5 receptions (5.18) for 72 yards, finding the end zone 7 times in 11 games. His production tailed off once Watson returned to the lineup, logging 4-plus receptions just once, failing to surpass 60 receiving yards in four out of six games. Fortunately, Cooper has been much more productive with Watson this season, seeing 7-plus targets in every game, averaging 5.67 receptions and 81 receiving yards. Cooper was almost a nonfactor when Watson was ruled out in Week 4, catching just one pass on six targets for 18 yards. Overall, his numbers look worse with Watson active, aside from a slight uptick in receiving yards, however, none of the backup quarterbacks on the current roster have a proven track record like Brissett and are more likely to hurt Cooper’s numbers.