Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
The NFL is back, and so too is the fantasy football splits series, now featuring in-season data. Each week, I’ll be using the FTN Fantasy Splits Tool to look at how changes in environment and situations have impacted teams/players in the past, projecting their outlook going forward. Most of the content will be centered around injuries, thanks to our new partnership with Dr. David Chao and Sports Injury Central. For those of you unfamiliar with the website, it’s a one-stop shop to keep fans, gamblers and fantasy players up to date on the latest injuries, covering all major sports such as the NFL, CFB, NBA and MLB.
Deshaun Watson was something of a surprise inactive in Week 4, ruled out moments before kickoff. In the postgame press conference, Kevin Stefanski stated that the coaching staff was expecting Watson despite being listed as questionable entering the game. Although Watson was medically cleared to suit up, he did not feel comfortable with his shoulder during pregame warmups. As a result, Watson decided to sit out, choosing to avoid further damage one week before the bye. Watson has already been ruled out in Week 6, diagnosed with a shoulder contusion by Sports Injury Central. He currently has a 62 SIC score and could be at risk of missing multiple weeks.
PJ Walker had already been taking reps with the first-team offenses and is now listed as the starter on the depth chart, ahead of Dorian Thompson-Robinson. DTR showed promising signs in the preseason but struggled in his first career start, dropping back 36 times while completing a little over half his passes (52.8%) for 121 scoreless yards and three interceptions. Regardless of who is under center, the matchup doesn’t get much worse than San Francisco who is No. 1 in total DVOA (51.6%), ranked top five at defending the pass (-13.9%). In this article, I’m going to use the Splits Tool to look at how the offense has historically fared with and without Watson since Cleveland traded for him last offseason. Jacoby Brissett started for most of the 2022 season, playing the first 11 games before Watson returned from his suspension. I’ll exclude players who did not have a significant role with the team entering the 2023 season due to the limited sample size.
Amari Cooper, WR
After moving on from Odell Beckham in the middle of the 2021 season and declining to bring back Jarvis Landry in free agency, the Browns found themselves in desperate need of a true No. 1 wide receiver lacking an alpha at the position. They practically stole Amari Cooper from the Cowboys last offseason, sending a 2022 fifth and a pick swap in the sixth round in exchange for the former Pro-Bowler. Cooper took no time getting acclimated with his new team, posting career-high marks in receptions (78), receiving yards (1,160) and touchdowns (9). Most of his damage came alongside Jacoby Brissett, where he saw 8-plus targets per game (8.45), averaging over 5 receptions (5.18) for 72 yards, finding the end zone 7 times in 11 games. His production tailed off once Watson returned to the lineup, logging 4-plus receptions just once, failing to surpass 60 receiving yards in four out of six games. Fortunately, Cooper has been much more productive with Watson this season, seeing 7-plus targets in every game, averaging 5.67 receptions and 81 receiving yards. Cooper was almost a nonfactor when Watson was ruled out in Week 4, catching just one pass on six targets for 18 yards. Overall, his numbers look worse with Watson active, aside from a slight uptick in receiving yards, however, none of the backup quarterbacks on the current roster have a proven track record like Brissett and are more likely to hurt Cooper’s numbers.
Donovan Peoples-Jones, WR
Donovan Peoples-Jones quietly broke out in his third year last season, totaling career highs in targets (96), receptions (61) and receiving yards (839). His overall receiving production took a hit in nearly every category when Watson returned to the lineup, aside from touchdowns. He found the end zone just once with Jacoby Brissett, doubling that number with Watson in almost half as many games. Peoples-Jones has yet to score this season, logging more than one catch or 12-plus receiving yards just once. Without Watson in Week 4, Peoples-Jones registered a season-high 90% snap share but continued getting phased out of the offense, catching one pass on four targets for seven yards. PJ Walker may help Peoples-Jones only because it can’t get any worse.
David Njoku, TE
The Browns’ 2017 first-round pick, David Njoku, hadn’t ever really delivered on his draft capital entering the final year of his contract in 2022. However, Cleveland was satisfied with what they had seen from Njoku, signing the tight end to a four-year extension last offseason, which at the time was the fourth-biggest contract at the position. Njoku played in 14 of 17 games in 2022, but had his best season to date, logging career-highs in targets (80) and receptions (58), surpassing 600 receiving yards for just the second time (628). Like the other pass catchers, Njoku’s receiving output was better without Watson, barring touchdowns. Njoku found the end zone in two out of five games with Watson last season but has been shut out of the scoring department in 2023. In Weeks 1-3, Njoku eclipsed 25 receiving yards just once, never catching more than four passes. His best game of the season came with Dorian Thompson-Robinson at the helm, despite being listed as questionable entering the game. Njoku suffered serious burns to his hands and face due to a fire pit accident the night before but received the green light as long as he was able to put on his helmet. Njoku served as a safety valve for the rookie quarterback, leading the team in targets (7), receptions (6), and receiving yards (46).
Other Notes
- Jerome Ford was efficient on the ground when he came in relief of Chubb in Week 2, eclipsing the century mark (106 yards) on just 16 carries (6.6 yards per carry). Since becoming the starter, Ford has failed to log more than 10 carries in a single game, averaging just 22 rushing yards, and 1.22 yards per carry. It is worth noting that Ford was listed on the injury report with a shoulder injury in Week 4 and has been limited in practice this week, tending to an issue with his knee. Sports Injury Central isn’t too worried about Ford’s status, giving him an 88 SIC score. Ford saw a season-low 9 carries in his lone game without Watson, but had strong usage as a pass catcher, logging career-high marks in targets (5) and receptions (6). Ford is a valuable asset in season-long, given his role as a lead back, but also has dynasty appeal depending on the status of Chubb’s health in 2024. Because of his history of multi-ligament surgeries to the same knee, Sports Injury Central does not expect Chubb to return to full health even when he is cleared to play.
- Elijah Moore has yet to surpass 50 receiving yards this season but had a healthy target share with Watson (25%), averaging 8.33 target per game. He had his worst game of the season missing Watson in Week 4, catching two passes on four targets for 20 yards. Moore posted zero scrimmage yards on the day, losing 20 yards on his lone carry.
