Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
The same game parlay for NFL Monday Night Football deals with a divisional rivalry between the Cincinnati Bengals and the Cleveland Browns. I love both of these teams because they have clear offensive visions of what they want to do.
That makes it easier for us as bettors to know where the volume will fall, especially with the injury situations and trade rumors both teams are dealing with. Sometimes the simplest approach is the best approach. I think tonight is one of those nights where it doesn’t make sense to get too cute when building a same game parlay.
DraftKings NFL Same Game Parlay
Nick Chubb Anytime Touchdown
Joe Burrow Over 254.5 yards passing
Joe Burrow 2+ Passing Touchdowns
Odds: +285 DraftKings
A simple, yet potentially profitable same game parlay on DraftKings for Monday night does not need to be overly complicated. The Cleveland Browns love to run the football and will pound Nick Chubb early and often. Chubb has eight touchdowns already on the season and no fewer than 13 touches in any game. He’s averaging just shy of 20 touches per game and has scored in five of the seven games the Cleveland Browns have played.
Cincinnati’s pass defense is above average, but they have struggled to stop the run in 2022. That is the best way to attack them if you are looking for the weakest link. Chubb is near the top of the league in most offensive rushing categories, including carries, yards, touchdowns and explosive runs of 10+ yards. I expect the Browns to lean heavily on him unless the score gets out of hand.
The Cincy offense seems to have solved or mitigated the biggest problem they have had, which is giving Joe Burrow time. After 13 combined sacks in the first two weeks, they have not allowed another 13 in the past five games combined. It is no secret that when Joe Burrow has been protected, he’s been able to produce. Over those last five games, Burrow is averaging 315 yards passing and 2.4 touchdown passes per contest with just one interception.
Ja’Marr Chase being injured definitely affects the ceiling, but they still have talented pass-catchers in Tee Higgins, Tyler Boyd and Hayden Hurst to help their star QB put up numbers. Burrow has topped the 255 yards passing, 2+ touchdown mark in five of the seven games played this season.
With Chubb scoring in over 70% of games, and Burrow topping 255 yards and 2 TDs in over 70% of his games, putting those two events together should be around even money. 70% of 70% = 49%, which should be a +110 payout, not the massive +285 we can get for just picking the things most likely to happen in any normal Bengals or Browns game.
