Prime-Time First TD Bets — Sunday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Every week of the NFL season, we at FTN will be writing up our favorite same-game parlays for the Thursday and Monday night football games, as well as for the Sunday slate. We will also be posting them in the NFL Bet Tracker, so if you want to bet them with us, head over to where you can find all of the FTNBets’ team’s picks.
NFL Same Game Parlay of the Day: Week 7 Thursday Slate
This single-game parlay bet is for the Week 7 Thursday Night Football game between the Arizona Cardinals and the visiting New Orleans Saints. Arizona will welcome back star wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins, but also just lost star receiver Marquise Brown. Starting running back James Conner was held out of the game last week. He and Darrel Williams both missed the game and practice Tuesday. It looks like Eno Benjamin will have another starring role after playing 87% of snaps last week.
The Saints also welcome back receiver Chris Olave. Jarvis Landry, Michael Thomas and Olave were all out with injury last week. Jameis Winston is practicing in a limited fashion, but all signs are pointing to Andy Dalton being under center again. This is worth monitoring for updates, but at this point I’m not sure which one is better for the Saints or by what margin. With all the uncertainty, it makes sense to stick with what we know and can quantify. Here is what that looks like for Thursday’s same game parlay of the day.
DraftKings Same Game Parlay
Saints Moneyline
DeAndre Hopkins Over 74.5 Receiving yards
DeAndre Hopkins Anytime Touchdown
The first leg of my same-game parlay is the New Orleans Saints to win this game outright. New Orleans and Arizona are pretty evenly matched. Arizona is at home, but the Cardinals are one of the worst home teams in recent years, so the adjustment for that is smaller than usual. That leaves this game as basically a 50/50 coinflip and I always like the underdog getting plus money in those situations.
As for the DeAndre Hopkins legs, these track with recent performances. Ja’Marr Chase just lit this defense up for 7/132/2 last week in the absence of Marshon Lattimore. Lattimore has not practiced yet this week and is unlikely to play Thursday on the short turnaround. Justin Jefferson had 10/147 against them two weeks earlier and the Seahawks receiver duo of Tyler Lockett (5/104/2) and DK Metcalf (5/88/1) both had big games in Week 5.
The Cardinals had fed Marquise Brown before a late-game injury in Week 6 likely cost him a few weeks of action. Brown was averaging seven catches on over 10 targets per game for 80 yards. He scored a touchdown in half of the six games he played in 2022. Remember Hopkins is coming back from a suspension, not an injury. He ramped up during preseason and is practicing in full for the game. This is not the same as when a guy is coming back from an injury, and we worry about what his health status is. Hopkins is healthy and should step directly into that massive vacated target vacuum left by the Brown injury. He has a chance to run wild here against a team struggling to get pressure and unable to stop high end wide receivers recently.
What is a Same Game Parlay?
A same game parlay is a bet that links multiple outcomes together that all come from the same event. Every NFL game has hundreds of different bet types. Sports books will offer bets on the spread, on the total, on who will score a touchdown, how many yards certain players will have, and many more events. A bettor has the ability to make a straight bet on each of these markets individually. If a bettor decides he wants to get a bigger payout by linking multiple outcomes together, that is what a same game parlay is for.
Why Bet Same Game Parlays
Same-game parlays offer a unique opportunity. Most parlays are -EV because you are trying to build up odds through uncorrelated events. When you put three teams in a parlay and it pays out at +595, you are getting the implied probability of 14.39%. There is not much value there — if you hit bets at a 52% clip, a three-team parlay at -110 odds has the implied probability of 14%. You are making a bad bet as the implied probability of you hitting the bet is less than the odds you are receiving.
Same-game parlays are different — you get an opportunity to add multiple events that increase your odds, and they are correlated. Same-game parlays are very similar to DFS game theory — you are telling yourself a story for how the game plays out and when you are right you win in a big way. Think Tom Brady has a huge game and throws for multiple touchdowns and over 300 yards? Well, he is going to have to take some receivers with him. Now the Buccaneers are putting pressure on the other team and they will have to respond by airing it out. Picking a receiver on the other team to run it back can give you serious odds and a big pay out. The reason to bet on the same-game parlays is because, when you are right, it pays off big. But it is very important when building them you aren’t trying to tell two different stories.
