Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
We are onto the Conference Championships of the NFL playoffs, and we have some super-exciting games. We’re back again to look at our favorite same-game parlays. Bonus: We hit last week at a +450 with the Chiefs moneyline, Travis Kelce anytime touchdown and over 74.5 receiving yards and Travis Etienne under 64.5 rushing yards.
This week we have another great opportunity to make some money on the AFC Championship Game between the Kansas City Chiefs and Cincinnati Bengals. Let’s go for two in a row.
DraftKings Same Game Parlay of the Day
Kansas City -1.5
Isiah Pacheco Anytime Touchdown
Patrick Mahomes Over 280 Passing Yards
My same-game parlay this week will be known as the “Burrowhead No More” same-game parlay. As you have probably seen in the headlines all week, the Bengals have been referring to Arrowhead Stadium as “Burrowhead.” This to me is the least intelligent thing the Bengals could have done all week. Let’s dig into the reasoning behind this same-game parlay.
The first part of the same-game parlay is Chiefs -1.5. This line has been all over the place this week due to various factors, mainly the health of Patrick Mahomes’ ankle. Mahomes injured his ankle in the Divisional Round against the Jacksonville Jaguars but did end up finishing the game in noticeable pain. However, he has shown no signs of limping or anything in various videos throughout the week and has been practicing as a full participant. Mahomes’ health is obviously a huge factor, but there are other factors I am riding with the Chiefs. I believe they are more well-rounded than last year. They have more playmakers that have been steady throughout the year rather than reliant on ex-Chief Tyreke Hill. Secondly, the run game is much better with Isiah Pacheco in the backfield. He has been an absolute beast down the stretch, and I expect the same to happen this week. Lastly — and in my opinion most importantly — if you remember from last year the Chiefs were up 21-3 and then decided to get fancy on the goal line right before halftime, which gave the Bengals life and momentum. This year, there is no sneaking up on the Chiefs for the Bengals, they are the hot pick to win this game and the Super Bowl, and that brings a completely different atmosphere and focus from the home Chiefs.
The second part of my same-game parlay involves Isiah Pacheco finding the end zone. Pacheco has been very steady lately. His usage continues to trend in the right direction. Also, with Mahomes dealing with an ankle injury, I would imagine that would limit his running ability in the red zone, which would lead to a couple more Pacheco red zone opportunities. The Bengals defense looked good last week, but so did Pacheco, going for almost 100 yards in the divisional win. Everyone forgets the Bengals gave up over 150 rushing yards and were a yard away from losing to the Ravens at home in the Wild Card Round against a backup quarterback.
Lastly, I am going with the soon-to-be MVP Patrick Mahomes to have over 280 passing yards. This one is certainly dependent on the health of the ankle, and so far from what I have seen we should be good to go. Mahomes threw for 5,200 yards during the regular season, good for first in the league. For the Chiefs to win this game, Mahomes will need to go for 300-plus yards, so the 280 is being conservative and giving us some wiggle room. The Bengals defense has famously held its own against Mahomes, but again this is a different game and situation. The Chiefs will have wrinkles and a good game plan coming into the game, which will lead to a big Mahomes day. Also, as far as playing out the game, Mahomes should get there in pretty much every type of game.
Overall, I am anticipating the Chiefs to win this game due to them being at home and more focused on the opponent than past matchups, Pacheco getting more opportunities in the red zone and converting, and Mahomes being Mahomes and lighting it up.
