NFL look-ahead lines report for Week 5

You want to win money betting on NFL games, that's why you're here. 

The challenge that most casual bettors run into though is their late call to action, i.e., betting moments before a game kicks off. Sure, we want to bet the game that we're watching, but at the end of the day, we want to win! Unfortunately, beating closing lines in the NFL is a long-term -EV proposition.

Each week of the season, I'll be providing a first glance at the upcoming NFL slate through the lens of look-ahead lines, courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook. (I was using DraftKings for the first few weeks, but they stopped posting look-ahead lines, and suddenly no one posts totals). 

Lookahead lines are typically released on Thursdays and are often taken down shortly after the current week's Thursday night game kicks off, though FanDuel seems to be leaving them up longer if you have access to that sportsbook. This short look-ahead window provides a peek at how teams are valued prior to the start of the week, and it's also an opportunity to act before the games are posted and sharpened on Sunday evening after the previous week's games are complete. These lines are a true indicator of how bookmakers value each team, without the influence of recency bias after watching eight hours of football earlier in the day. Depending on the bookmaker, and bettor for that matter, you may or may not be able to get the type of action down that you'd like. The key is understanding where the value is on the board in any given week, and that is easier to do once you know what the opening number was. 

Here's a look at the Week 5 spreads:

(Keep in mind there is a lot going on in the league right now with COVID-19 positives, so lines could swing wildly or come off the board, or games could be postponed at any time.)

Noonan's notes

• When I'm firing at these spots early, it's because I strongly believe this number is going to beat the closing line, and perhaps, it ends up being the best of the number. Basically, if I'm right in Week 4, I'm going to have an advantage in predicting where the line movement will come first in Week 5.

• This is back-to-back road games for Arizona (OFF), but after playing in Carolina in Week 4, the Cardinals are staying east to avoid the back and forth travel.

• Same for the Chargers (+7.5) who are staying east for their matchup against the Saints (-7.5) after playing Tampa Bay in Week 4.

• The Eagles (+7) don't have to travel very far, but after a Sunday night game on the West Coast in Week 4, they face the Steelers (-7) who are coming off of a surprising bye week. I'm worried about Carson Wentz. The injuries to his supporting cast are certainly an issue, but Wentz hasn't helped himself. Out of all the quarterbacks that have started every game this season, only Dwayne Haskins has a worse completion percentage over expectation than Wentz (-6.4%). Pittsburgh leads all defenses in pressure rate created through the first three weeks, and I expect them to give Wentz and the Eagles fits. This should get to -8.5 or -9.

• It's difficult to lay double digits in the division, but this Giants (+11.5) team is awful. This will be back-to-back road games for the Giants, traveling to Dallas (-11.5) after New York to L.A. to New York travel in Week 4. This likely settles in at -13.

• The Vikings (+9.5) came out relatively unscathed in the Titans COVID-19 situation, but their Week 4 practice situation, or lack thereof, could catch up here. They follow up their Week 4 trip to Houston with a trip to Seattle (-9.5). If the Seahawks handle their business in Miami, this will get to -10 and possibly higher, quickly.

• The Colts (-2.5) are short road favorites in back-to-back weeks. That doesn't feel right, does it? If you think the Browns (+2.5) are live in Week 4 at Dallas, there's value here on the short home favorites.

• After playing in Las Vegas in Week 4, the Bills are on the road again, this time in Tennessee (OFF). With all the question marks surrounding the Titans, it’s difficult to have an early lean here.