Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
The 2022-23 season was another banner year for Patrick Mahomes. He became the first player in NFL history to win the MVP, Super Bowl MVP, passing touchdown and passing yardage titles in a single season. And the future remains bright for the Kansas City Chiefs quarterback. Mahomes ended the season with a career-high 5,250 yards in 17 games. It was the second time he topped 5,000 yards. He ended with 41 touchdowns, his most since he had 50 in 2018, his first full year as a starter. Mahomes is averaging over 4,800 yards passing per season as a starter. He had two seasons where he missed a couple games or that passing-yard average would be closer to 5,000. This is where today’s Futures Friday bet comes from.
2023 NFL Passing Yardage Leader Prop
Patrick Mahomes to Lead the NFL in Passing Yards
Patrick Mahomes is the clear favorite to lead the NFL in passing yardage for 2023. He finished last season more than 500 yards ahead of Justin Herbert in this category. His five-year average passing yardage total of over 4,800 yards is more than anyone but Mahomes had last year. Mahomes does not even need to set new records to win this award, he basically just needs to stay healthy and have an average season for him.
Mahomes is set up to have better than an average season. The Chiefs added some weapons to a very weak receiving group from 2022. Kadarius Toney and rookie WR Rashee Rice are in. JuJu Smith-Schuster is the most notable loss, and Mecole Hardman also moved on. Toney has been receiving rave reviews. The Chiefs have high expectations for the former first-round pick they acquired in the middle of last season. With a full training camp under his belt, he is expected to have a much bigger role in 2023. Smith-Schuster saw 101 targets last year, catching 78 for 933 yards. Hardman was a much smaller piece of the offense, seeing just 34 targets in eight games last year. If Toney and Rice can fill that void as expected, we could even see bigger production from the Chiefs passing game.
Mahomes’ passing yardage totals will once again be boosted by the other pass catchers not lining up at WR. Travis Kelce is an absolute cheat code at the tight end position. Kelce was the No. 1 pass catcher for his MVP quarterback last season. He saw 152 targets, caught 110 of them, and finished with 1,338 receiving yards. Kelce has seven straight seasons with at least 1,000 receiving yards. He has shown no signs of slowing down — last year’s yardage total was the second best of Kelce’s Hall of Fame career. Even his backup, Noah Gray, ended the year with one yard under 300 and was fifth on the team in targets. Add in 128 yards for Jody Fortson/Blake Bell, and Mahomes was able to get more than a third of the way to 5,000 yards just on the back of the tight end position.
The Chiefs’ running back position has been a bit of a mess ever since the team released Kareem Hunt, but that has not really mattered. It matters to this wager because the lack of an elite running back to pound out the clock means more passing from the high-powered aerial attack. Guys like Clyde Edwards-Helaire and Jerick McKinnon are both better at catching passes out of the backfield than running with the ball, and the rule changes that count some of those forward flips and handoffs as passes can only bolster the yardage for Mahomes in the Chiefs’ creative offense. McKinnon ended up fourth on the team with 72 targets. CEH and Isiah Pacheco added another 37. Running backs accounted for 826 yards of the career high total Mahomes set in 2022. I expect them to add that or more in 2023.
Although Mahomes is the chalkiest of the favorites, he is still undervalued on FanDuel at +450. DraftKings has him at just +300 to lead the league. Caesars opened higher and is down to +400 now. At +450, our FTN Bets odd calculator says that equates to an 18% chance to lead the league. Our true value for Mahomes is closer to 25%, which is the payout of +300 on DraftKings. That means we have a sizable edge on FanDuel for Patrick Mahomes to repeat as the NFL passing yardage leader for this upcoming season.
