Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
The penultimate week of the regular season was a wild one. The Jets nearly beat the Buccaneers, the Bengals clinched the AFC North with a win over the Chiefs, and the Patriots hung 50 points on the Jaguars.
There were also some noteworthy fantasy performances. Let’s dive into some of the biggest winners and losers from Sunday’s slate and break down some of the winning tournament lineups from across the DFS industry.
Winners
Ja’Marr Chase, Cincinnati Bengals
The Bengals’ passing attack went bananas for the second straight game. However, this week was a bit different. Instead of the production being spread amongst the entire offense, Ja’Marr Chase racked up the vast majority of the fantasy scoring vs. the Chiefs.
Chase turned in arguably the best receiving game of the entire season. He finished with 11 catches for 266 yards and three touchdowns, resulting in a whopping 58.6 DraftKings points. Some of his production came on blown coverages, but he also made numerous contested catches in one-on-one coverage. How this guy isn’t the hands-down favorite for Offensive Rookie of the Year is an absolute travesty.
Chase became just the sixth receiver to record more than 50 DraftKings points in a single game since 2016, joining Tyreek Hill, Amari Cooper, Will Fuller, Tyler Lockett and Julio Jones. Hill is the only player in that group who actually outscored Chase, posting a ridiculous 60.9 DraftKings points last year vs. the Buccaneers.
Chase also checked in with minuscule ownership on DraftKings. He was owned across just 3.5% of DraftKings’ tournament lineups, making him the definition of a slate-breaker. If you didn’t have him in your lineups, you had no shot at first place.
We also have to list Joe Burrow as a bonus winner. Not only did he throw for 446 yards and four touchdowns, but he also broke out this beautiful celebration after the game:
What a legend.
Amon-Ra St. Brown, Detroit Lions
Chase wasn’t the only rookie wide receiver to go off on Sunday. Amon-Ra St. Brown was a fourth-round pick out of USC, but he’s played the part of a future star recently. He entered Week 17 scoring at least 23.5 DraftKings points in three of his previous four games, but there were still question marks with him vs. the Seahawks. Not only was he playing with backup quarterback Tim Boyle, but D’Andre Swift was also back in the lineup. All of St. Brown’s big performances recently came with Swift sidelined, so it was unclear if Swift would cut into his workload.
Turns out, both of those issues were overblown. He put together the best game of his young career vs. the Seahawks, finishing with 37.0 DraftKings points. He had another big game as a pass-catcher – he racked up seven catches for 107 yards and a touchdown – and he added two carries for 23 yards and a score on the ground.
Despite his recent success, St. Brown is still searching for believers on DraftKings. He hasn’t grabbed double-digit ownership in any of his recent performances, and this week is no exception. He was owned in approximately 8.0% in the Milly Maker, but his average ownership was just 5.31% across the major tournaments.
Rashaad Penny, Seattle Seahawks
You have to feel good for Rashaad Penny. He’s struggled with injuries for basically his entire career, and he was limited to just 11 carries last year. He’s been productive when he’s been on the field – he’s averaged 5.2 yards per attempt for his career – but the former first-round pick has never been able to get rolling.
That’s changed recently. The Seahawks lost starter Chris Carson to a season-ending injury, which has given Penny the opportunity to shine. He racked up 22.5 DraftKings points in Week 16 vs. the Bears, and he put together an even bigger performance in Week 17. He torched the Lions for 170 yards and two touchdowns, resulting in 35.5 DraftKings points.
Penny was slightly more popular than Chase and St. Brown, but he still had approximate ownership of just 10.5% and was the highest-scoring RB on the slate.
Losers
Antonio Brown, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
We’re still not entirely sure what happened with Antonio Brown this weekend. Buccaneers head coach Bruce Arians told Jay Glazer that he told Brown to go back into the game, and Brown responded by taking off his jersey and exiting the field. He’s no longer a member of the Bucs, and I’m sure more details will become available later.
What we do know is that Brown was the highest owned wide receiver on DraftKings this week, and he provided fantasy owners with just 5.6 DraftKings points. That’s obviously not going to get the job done.
At this point, it seems like Brown’s days in the NFL are likely over. That’s truly a shame. Brown was arguably the league’s premier receiver for half a decade, but that feels like a million years ago at this point. He can still clearly play the game at a high level, but he’s gotten to the point where he’s no longer worth the trouble.
CeeDee Lamb, Dallas Cowboys
The Cowboys came crashing back to reality in Week 17. They weren’t embarrassed – they suffered a three-point home loss vs. the Cardinals – but their Super Bowl hype train was slightly derailed.
CeeDee Lamb ended up salvaging his stat line in the fourth quarter, but he still racked up just 8.1 DraftKings points at $7,100. It continued a trend of recent disappointments for the second-year receiver, who has scored 14.6 DraftKings points or fewer in five of his past six games.
The worst part is that Dak Prescott actually had respectable numbers, finishing with 226 passing yards and three touchdowns. Lamb simply struggled to get involved with the passing attack, with his four targets tying for the fifth-highest mark on the team.
Lamb was also a popular option this week, carrying the fourth-highest ownership at the position.
Stephen Anderson, Los Angeles Chargers
It’s hard for a min-priced player to be considered a disappointment, but that’s exactly what happened with Stephen Anderson this week. The Chargers were missing their top two tight ends, so many thought that Anderson would step into a sizable workload. That resulted in him being the highest-owned tight end of the week on DraftKings.
However, Anderson finished with just one catch for eight yards, good for a measly 1.8 DraftKings points. That didn’t necessarily kill your lineups – no one at tight end really went off this week – but you had to be nearly perfect around him.
Winning tournament lineups
NFL $3M Fantasy Football Millionaire
No real surprises here. The Milly Maker was won by a Burrow to Chase stack, which was the highest-scoring combo on the slate by a wide margin. They also used Darrel Williams as a bring-back for the Chiefs, and he racked up 25.7 DraftKings points thanks to two touchdowns.
Going with a contrarian stack allowed this lineup to eat some chalk elsewhere. Braxton Berrios and Sony Michel were among the most popular players at their position, while Brandin Cooks also checked in with modest ownership.
The rest of the lineup consisted of Rob Gronkowski and Jaret Patterson, both of which delivered excellent production for their price tags.
There really isn’t much to say about this lineup. When your quarterback and top receiver combine for nearly 100 points with virtually no ownership, there aren’t a ton of ways to mess it up.
NFL $4.5M Main Event Millionaire
One of the final million-dollar winners of the regular season goes to one of the most prominent names in DFS.
Awesemo was somewhat surprisingly able to take down first place in this contest with no Chase or Burrow. The larger buy-in contests feature fewer entries, so you don’t have to be quite as perfect to take home the top prize.
Instead, this lineup featured a Seahawks-Lions game stack that paid off handsomely. The Seahawks scored a week-high 51 points, with Russell Wilson and Penny combining for six total touchdowns. Three of Wilson’s touchdown passes made their way to D.K. Metcalf, who finished with 30.9 DraftKings points.
This lineup only featured one member of the Lions, but it was a good one. St. Brown had one of the biggest games of the week, and the Seahawks’ players likely wouldn’t have hit their ceilings if not for him keeping the game competitive.
Such is the beauty of a game stack. You essentially only need one thing to break in your favor – in this case, the Seahawks and Lions game turning into a shootout – in order to compete for the top prize.
David Montgomery was the chalkiest player in this lineup, and he didn’t disappoint with two touchdowns vs. the Giants. Tyler Higbee was also reasonable at $4,000, while Patterson delivered an excellent performance at minimal ownership.
$1.3M NFL Sunday Million
We go from one of the biggest names in fantasy winning the previous contest to an unknown winning the biggest on FanDuel. “Basicdude” doesn’t even have a check mark next to his name. You have to love DFS: Anyone can win on any given week.
This lineup hit on basically all of the big scorers today, including Chase, Burrow, St. Brown and Penny. They also got four total touchdowns from Boston Scott and Williams, while Darnell Mooney did enough to pay off his salary. Ultimately, Travis Kelce was the lowest-scoring player in this line at just 10.9 points.
Congratulations to basicdude. I imagine he is now legally required to change his username to notsobasicdude.
Happy New Year, and make sure to savor the final week of the regular season!
