Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
There are chalk weeks, there are contrarian weeks, and then there are weeks like this one. If you woke up this morning and had the Bills losing to the Jaguars, the Cowboys losing to the Broncos and James Conner finishing with the most fantasy points, congratulations, you’re probably now the richest person in the world. I assume a parlay on those three things pays out approximately one Jeff Bezos’ estate.
Unsurprisingly, there were a lot of unexpected winners and losers this week. Let’s dive into some of the biggest, along with some of the big tournament winners on DraftKings and FanDuel.
Winners
Lamar Jackson
Lamar Jackson has been a bit quiet recently, but he broke out in a massive game against the Vikings. He racked up 266 passing yards and 120 rushing yards, just barely missing the rare double bonus on DraftKings. He also threw for three touchdowns, bringing his fantasy total to 35.64 for the day.
Jackson also got his top receiver, Marquise Brown, in on the act. He racked up nine catches for 116 yards, so the duo ultimately finished with more than 59 DraftKings points. That’s exactly the kind of production you’re looking for from a stack.
That was ultimately the most popular stack of the day, but that duo was still owned at just 7.5% in the $3.5M Fantasy Football Millionaire contest on DraftKings. Those teams undoubtedly did well on this slate.
Nick Chubb
Nick Chubb didn’t see the massive boost in volume some were expecting without Kareem Hunt, but he made the most of his touches vs. the Bengals. He finished with 14 carries and two receptions, and he turned them into more than 160 total yards. Chubb has been one of the most efficient running backs in football on a per-touch basis, and he proved that again on Sunday.
Chubb was one of the highest-owned running backs on the slate, checking in at approximately 20.8% on DraftKings. However, he carried higher ownership in some of the higher-dollar contests, which is typically the indication of “good chalk.” Chubb racked up 33.3 DraftKings points, and I’ll take that kind of chalk any day of the week.
James Conner
James Conner wasn’t just an afterthought on this slate, he was essentially not even rostered. He was used at roughly 2% in the Milly Maker, but he checked in at 0.5% or less in most of the other big tournaments on DraftKings. Overall, his average ownership was less than 0.75%.
Conner has been a touchdown-scoring machine this season, but there were plenty of reasons to be skeptical of him on Sunday. For starters, the team was playing without Kyler Murray and DeAndre Hopkins, so the Cardinals’ offense was expected to be less potent than usual. The 49ers also represent a tough matchup, ranking seventh in Football Outsiders rush defense DVOA.
None of that mattered to Conner. He took full advantage of an early injury to Chase Edmonds, which allowed him to seize the lion’s share of the workload. He ultimately finished with 96 rushing yards, 77 receiving yards, and three total touchdowns, bringing his fantasy total to 40.3 DraftKings points for the day.
Losers
Buffalo Bills
If you lose to the Jaguars, you automatically go down as one of the slate’s biggest losers. I don’t make the rules.
I’m not sure exactly what happened to the Bills this week. They entered the league first in points per game, yet they managed six points against the worst defense in the league per DVOA. Josh Allen was the biggest loser. He threw two interceptions and managed just 264 passing yards on 47 attempts. It was easily his worst game of the season, and it might ultimately cost him the MVP at the end of the year.
That poor production trickled down to the rest of his teammates. Stefon Diggs was passable with 14.5 DraftKings points, but the rest of the roster suffered mightily. The two running backs combined for 24 rush yards. Cole Beasley had 33 receiving yards. No one scored a single touchdown.
The Bills’ offense comprised some of the highest-owned stacks of the week, which is not surprising given their slate-high implied team total. Needless to say, you likely didn’t win anything with Allen and company on your roster.
Dallas Cowboys
The Cowboys’ offense also had a pathetic showing on Sunday. They did manage to score two garbage time touchdowns, but they both went to Malik Turner. That helped absolutely no one.
Dak Prescott struggled in his first game back in the lineup, while Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard combined for one of their worst performances of the year. The Cowboys stud receiver duo of CeeDee Lamb and Amari Cooper also struggled, combining for just four catches for 60 yards.
The Cowboys offense still figures to provide plenty of fantasy value in the future, but this was an absolutely dismal showing. They came into the week as 10-point home favorites but ultimately lost by 16 to the Broncos.
Kadarius Toney
I honestly don’t know who to blame for this one. Kadarius Toney? Jason Garrett? Daniel Jones?
Toney has all the makings of a future star. He looks absolutely electric with the ball in his hands, and the Giants came into this game missing both Saquon Barkley and Sterling Shepard. It seemed logical that they would get the ball into Toney’s hands.
Instead, he racked up one paltry target against the Raiders. One! He finished with just one catch for nine yards, which disappointed the nearly 15% of fantasy players who selected him on DraftKings.
The fact that the Giants won this game is even more frustrating. If they lost, there would’ve been a much bigger deal made about his lack of involvement. Instead, there’s a chance that Toney is similarly uninvolved moving forward. That makes all of us losers.
Winning tournament lineups
DraftKings NFL $3.5M FANTASY FOOTBALL MILLIONAIRE
Behold the power of two percent Conner. This lineup was one of the few who rostered him, and it allowed them to overcome some subpar performances from the rest of the roster. Zack Moss exited early with just 4.4 DraftKings points, while Jaylen Waddle and Mike Gesicki were average.
The rest of this lineup featured a Justin Herbert–Keenan Allen stack, which was right up there with Jackson-Brown in terms of value. Speaking of Brown, he was also a member of this team, as was Chubb.
The true difference maker with this team — outside of Conner — was the decision to stack Chubb with the Browns Defense. They checked in with just three percent ownership at $2,500, and they delivered 18.0 DraftKings points vs. the Bengals.
Stacking Chubb and the Browns made a lot of sense. Running backs and defenses typically have positive correlation, and using the Browns’ D was a great way to bring down Chubb’s average ownership. He was rostered in 21.1% of lineups in this contest, but just 0.7% used Chubb with the Browns defense. Thinking about unique ways to stack some of the chalkier players is a great way to get them into your lineups at reduced effective ownership.
DraftKings NFL $2.5M MEGA MILLIONAIRE
DraftKings brought back their second Milly Maker contest in Week 9. This one features a $4,444 buy-in, so there are obviously far fewer entries. That means you don’t need to be quite as perfect to take home first place.
This lineup also used a Chubb-Browns Defense stack, and it also featured a Jackson-Brown stack. They also included Justin Jefferson as a bring back, and he finished with a respectable 17.0 DraftKings Points.
They also ate the chalk with both Hunter Renfrow and Albert Okwuegbunam, who stood out as two of the best low-dollar plays of the week. Neither player provided a huge week, but neither was a lineup-killer either.
Finally, this lineup opted for Allen in the flex, which was enough to push this team across the finish line in the 4 p.m. ET window. They ended up winning by nearly 20 full fantasy points, which is pretty much domination.
FanDuel $1.75M NFL Sunday Million
This was another large-field tournament, so it’s not surprising to see Conner make a return to the winning lineup. He was also slightly more popular on FanDuel, which does make sense. Conner’s touchdown-scoring ability is more appealing on FanDuel, while his lack of receiving upside isn’t as big of a drawback.
Jackson, Brown and Chubb also make return appearances, but Joe Mixon enters the picture as the third running back. Mixon also had a big game thanks to two touchdowns, and the three runners in this lineup ultimately finished with 92.6 FanDuel points. That accounted for nearly 50% of this team’s score.
The Patriots defense also makes an appearance on FanDuel, and they racked up 20 fantasy points. Overall, there were a few defenses that had big weeks, but it was a week where your defense mattered. If you played a defense that failed to crack double-digits, it put you behind the 8-ball.
The rest of this lineup is comprised of Waddle, Diggs and Donald Parham. Parham wasn’t really on the radar this week, and he checked in with 0.2% ownership in this contest. That said, he was significantly better than the other tight ends in this price range — Okwuegbunam and Tommy Sweeney in particular — and this lineup used the full $60,000 salary. If they pivoted to one of the “more logical” tight ends, they would’ve had to change something with this roster. Ultimately, that ended up being a $1M decision. Congrats to machine54.
