Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
The NFL regular season is heading down the home stretch, but we got some great finishes on Sunday. The Buccaneers blew a late 17-point lead against the Bills, but they ultimately came back to win in overtime. The 49ers also improved their playoff positioning with an overtime win against the Bengals, while the Browns held on for a two-point win to keep their playoff hopes alive.
The exciting finishes led to some sweaty moments for fantasy owners as well, with most of the major DFS contests being decided in the final two games. Let’s dive into some of the biggest winners and losers on this slate and break down some of the winning tournament lineups across the industry.
Winners
Hunter Renfrow, Las Vegas Raiders
There wasn’t a lot of winning to speak of with the Raiders on Sunday. They were decimated by the Chiefs, losing by a final score of 48-9, which dropped them to just 6-7 for the year. They’re down to just 12th place in the AFC, so their chances of qualifying for the postseason are slim.
However, Renfrow has been a bright spot. He entered the week on a hot streak, scoring at least 22.2 DraftKings points in back-to-back games, and he delivered another excellent performance against the Chiefs. He saw 14 targets, which he turned into 13 catches for 117 yards and a touchdown. Renfrow ultimately finished with 32.7 DraftKings points, making him the highest-scoring position player on Sunday’s slate.
Renfrow was priced at $6,100 on DraftKings, and he still carried nearly 15% ownership on DraftKings. I’m not sure if I’m ready to live in a world with a $7k Renfrow, but that’s where we might be next week.
Broncos’ Backfield
Javonte Williams had his breakout performance in Week 13 with Melvin Gordon sidelined. He finished with nearly 180 total yards, six catches, and a touchdown, resulting in 32.8 DraftKings points.
That said, it remained to be seen how the touches would be split in Week 14 with Gordon back in the picture. Some believed Williams did enough last week to secure a larger workload moving forward, while others believed Gordon would step right back into his starting job.
Turns out, there was more than enough fantasy value to go around. Gordon did lead the team with 24 carries, and he turned those into 111 rushing yards and two scores. He racked up 26.1 DraftKings points, making him the third-highest scoring running back on the slate.
Williams added two touchdowns of his own, bringing his total to 21.3 DraftKings points.
Gordon was the bigger winner from an ownership perspective – he checked in with 0.8% ownership on DraftKings, Williams at 21.44% – but those who rostered either player were ultimately pretty happy.
Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills
This spot was initially slated for Mark Andrews, and George Kittle also warranted consideration. However, I’ve got to give it to Allen.
He was the highest-scoring player on this slate, finishing with 42.22 DraftKings points, and he grabbed the elusive “double-double” (300-yard passing bonus and 100-yard rushing bonus). He also overcame a late deficit to force the defending champs to overtime. Allen also was hobbled by a leg injury, so he left it all on the field for his team and fantasy owners. The Bills weren’t able to get the win in overtime, but his fantasy owners certainly appreciated the effort.
Losers
Antonio Gibson, Washington Football Team
Gibson checked in with the highest ownership this week on DraftKings, and there was plenty to like about him. For starters, Gibson has been an absolute workhorse recently, logging at least 23 carries in three of his past four games. He was also productive in those outings, scoring at least 22.1 DraftKings points in each game.
Gibson also figured to be more involved in the passing game with J.D. McKissic out of the lineup. He’s racked up at least six targets in back-to-back games, which coincides with McKissic being out of the lineup.
Unfortunately, the Football Team just got punched in the mouth by the Cowboys’ defense this week. They had four turnovers, and Gibson was essentially benched following a fumble in the third quarter. The Football Team finished with just 224 yards of total offense, and Gibson finished with just 5.1 DraftKings points.
Gibson was owned at greater than a 45% clip across DraftKings tournaments, so he was easily the biggest disappointment on Sunday’s slate.
Jeff Wilson, San Francisco 49ers
Wilson was expected to serve as the 49ers’ starting running back this week with Eli Mitchell out of the lineup. He racked up 19 carries the last time Mitchell was out of the lineup, so DFS players flocked to him at just $4,400 on DraftKings. His 24.6% average ownership trailed on Gibson’s and Mike Williams’ on Sunday’s slate.
Unfortunately, Wilson just wasn’t much of a factor for the 49ers this week. Even in a perfect game script – the 49ers’ led most of this game by double digits – Wilson finished with just 13 carries and zero targets. Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk vultured nine carries, and Samuel scored the team’s only rushing touchdown.
Travis Kelce & Tyreek Hill, Kansas City Chiefs
You would think Kelce and Hill would do plenty of damage in a week where the Chiefs scored 49 points, but you’d be mistaken. The Chiefs scored one defensive touchdown, while Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Darrel Williams, and Derrick Gore combined for four scores.
That simply didn’t leave much for the Chiefs’ star pass-catchers. Hill wasn’t a disaster – he finished with four catches for 76 yards – but Kelce struggled to just three catches for 27 yards. Both players had considerable ownership, especially on FanDuel where both players were underpriced.
Winning tournament lineups
NFL $3.25M Fantasy Football Millionaire
It always makes me happy to see someone take down the Milly Maker on a single bullet. It should provide hope to all the low-stakes grinders that it is possible to compete at the highest level with a combination of skill and luck.
This lineup certainly had plenty of both. Rashaad Penny was an inspired choice at just 2.3% ownership, finishing with 29.8 DraftKings points. Head coach Pete Carroll said that Penny would split the carries with Alex Collins this week, and Penny ended up receiving 16 carries in this contest. He turned them into 137 yards and two touchdowns, so he was a clear difference-maker at just $4,800.
This team also employed an Allen to Cole Beasley stack, and they ate the chalk with Renfrow in the flex. The rest of the lineup was comprised of low-ownership plays like Andrews, Ja’Marr Chase, and Robby Anderson, who each provided big performances.
The biggest stroke of skill/luck was the decision to use Saquon Barkley instead of Gibson. Both players were priced identically, but Barkley outscored Gibson by +13.4 points. Gibson was regarded as the better play this week, but this lineup would’ve finished in 21st with Gibson instead of Barkley. That’s a difference of more than $1M.
NFL $1.5M Wildcat
The Wildcat winner employed a similar lineup as the previous lineup, but they leaned a bit heavier into the Bills-Buccaneers game stack. That game stood out this week – the total was at least five points higher than every other game – so it made sense to load up.
However, this user managed to do it uniquely. Cole Beasley and Dawson Knox both provided solid value for their price tags, and neither player was owned at greater than 12.1%. Most of the people who stacked Allen chose to do so with Stefon Diggs, who scored far fewer fantasy points.
This user also brought it back with Mike Evans on the other side, who finished with 21.1 DraftKings points thanks to a touchdown.
This lineup also took advantage of the big performances from Penny and Beasley, while they paid up for Alvin Kamara. Kamara was reportedly going to be on a “pitch count” vs. the Jets, but he still racked up nearly 150 total yards and a touchdown.
$1.5M NFL Sunday Million
On FanDuel, Tom Brady was the winning quarterback in their biggest GPP. He ultimately became the first quarterback to finish with more than 300 passing yards vs. the Bills, and he also capped his performance with a walk-off touchdown pass in overtime. That was the 700th TD pass of his storied career.
This lineup stacked Brady with Chris Godwin, who delivered his second straight performance with at least 10 catches and 100 yards. They also used both Penny and Kamara, while Kittle was deployed at tight end.
The biggest difference-maker for this team was the Titans’ defense, who finished with 21 points at just 6% ownership. They didn’t score a touchdown, but they pitched a shutout and racked up four turnovers and three sacks.
