Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Week 4 is definitely my least favorite week of the season so far for DFS values, but there are still a handful out there. It is also entirely possible that more value opens up throughout the week but here is where I stand as of right now.
Let’s see where we stand for Week 4 of the NFL season.
Quarterback | Week 4 DFS values
Matt Ryan vs. Washington Football Team
($5,400 on DK)
There isn’t a ton of great value at quarterback this week, and I’ll be honest — this play terrifies me. Sure, the matchup is actually pretty favorable, but Matt Ryan and this Atlanta offense have been brutal through three weeks. Ryan is currently averaging just 4.2 intended air yards per attempt this season, good for the second-lowest mark among qualified quarterbacks. Meanwhile, just 2.6% of his pass attempts have traveled 20 yards or more down the field, also the second-lowest mark in football. It has been ugly. But it is possible that a home meeting with Washington could be the cure, odd as that sounds. Although everyone expected this defense to be among the league’s best, Washington has struggled through three weeks, allowing the most fantasy points per game to opposing passers (27.6). They are also allowing a healthy 7.5 yards per pass attempt, as well as 2.0 passing touchdowns per game. Because the Falcons offense has been so putrid through three weeks, I’d only consider Ryan for tournaments, but it wouldn’t shock me to see Atlanta finally show some semblance of a vertical passing game this week.
Sam Darnold @ Dallas Cowboys
($7,200 on FD)
Sam Darnold has been great through three weeks, averaging 21.4 FanDuel points per game. He’s now eclipsed 300 passing yards in consecutive games for the first time in his career, ranking 11th in the league in fantasy points per dropback (0.57). It helps when you have two rushing touchdowns in a game like last week — Darnold quietly has three rushing scores on the year. He now faces a Dallas defense that is playing well, but I still don’t believe it’s a great unit, with their Monday night performance was more to do with the Eagles offense imploding. Even without Christian McCaffrey, I expect Carolina to be able to move the football, and we finally might see some passing volume headed Darnold’s way, as the Panthers are the only team in the NFL yet to play a snap while trailing this season. Opposing offenses are averaging nearly 44 pass attempts per game against the Cowboys this season, good for the fourth-most in the league.
Running back | Week 4 DFS values
Chase Edmonds @ Los Angeles Rams
($5,500 on DK)
Chase Edmonds wasn’t on my radar in season-long leaguesm but despite having little touchdown upside, he’s been strong so far. Through three weeks, Edmonds ranks sixth among all running backs in routes run (76), while his 17 targets are tied for the third most at the position. He has also lined up in the slot around 12% of the time so far, while operating out wide nearly 11% of the time. With 16 receptions through three games, Edmonds could be in line for a busy afternoon on Sunday, facing a Rams team that has the ability to slow down the wide receivers on the perimeter. They just allowed nine receptions for 51 yards and a touchdown on 10 targets to Giovani Bernard last week and while that was in a come-from-behind effort, it is possible that Cardinals are chasing points in this game, too. On a site like DraftKings, Edmonds has sneaky upside in this game at a very fair price tag.
Jonathan Taylor @ Miami Dolphins
($6,600 on FD)
Jonathan Taylor should have had a very good game Sunday against the Titans, but for whatever reason, the Colts went away from him. He touched the ball 11 times for 72 yards but failed to find the end zone, as Nyheim Hines scored a touchdown from nine yards out. The snaps and touches were essentially a split, which isn’t exactly what you like to see, but I expect a good game from Taylor in Week 4 against a Miami defense that just allowed over 100 yards and a touchdown to Peyton Barber last week. On the season, the Dolphins are allowing a healthy 1.3 rushing touchdowns per game (seventh most) and even allowed three touchdowns to the Buffalo running backs in Week 2. 44.4% of the touchdowns surrendered by this defense have come via the run, which is the eighth-highest rate in football. Sitting at 0-3 with a banged-up, struggling quarterback, the Colts should give Taylor the ball 20 times Sunday.
Wide receiver | Week 4 DFS values
Cole Beasley vs. Houston Texans
($5,400 on DK)
The Bills did whatever they wanted on offense against Washington last week, especially Cole Beasley, who hauled in 11-of-13 targets for 98 yards. Beasley now has 13 targets in two of the first three games this season, and with the Bills now hosting the Texans, expect another huge showing from this passing game. I expect Stefon Diggs to do his thing, but Beasley sets up so well in this spot. When we last saw the Texans, they were playing a ton of Cover 2 zone against the Panthers. As a result, DJ Moore found the soft spots and dominated. I expect Beasley to do the same, especially since he crushes zone coverage. So far this season, the veteran slot receiver leads all wide receivers in receptions (19) and targets (23) against zone coverage, while nearly 83% of his receptions have come against the defensive scheme. The floor (especially on DraftKings) is high for Beasley, but I think there is a solid ceiling in this spot, too.
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine @ New York Jets
($5,300 on FD)
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine was thrust into a larger role Sunday after A.J. Brown left the game early with a hamstring injury. He was productive, catching all four of his targets for 53 yards and a touchdown. Once Brown left, Westbrook-Ikhine stepped in as the WR2 opposite Julio Jones and ultimately paced the wideouts in both snaps and routes, as Jones missed the fourth quarter with what has been called a leg injury. His status for Week 4 is suddenly up in the air and if both Jones and Brown sit, Westbrook-Ikhine would be in line for potentially 7-8 targets against a beatable Jets secondary.
Tight end | Week 4 DFS values
Tommy Tremble @ Dallas Cowboys
($2,500 on DK)
We started to see the Panthers use Tommy Tremble more in their offense Thursday night, as they used him in motion and even gave him a carry inside the 5-yard line, which he converted into a touchdown. Now with Dan Arnold in Jacksonville, Tremble’s role should increase, and at just $2,500 on DK, he makes sense as a value option, especially against a Cowboys defense that has been obliterated by tight ends to start the season. Dallas just allowed over 100 yards and a touchdown to the combination of Zach Ertz and Dallas Goedert, while Rob Gronkowski scored two touchdowns against them back in Week 1. And Jared Cook did score against Dallas in Week 2, though it was called back due to penalty. With Christian McCaffrey sidelined, the Panthers will need more players to step up and Tremble has an opportunity in a great matchup.
Evan Engram @ New Orleans Saints
($5,100 on FD)
Evan Engram made his 2021 debut in Week 3, catching two balls for 21 yards. He was targeted six times and lost a fumble. It certainly wasn’t the most encouraging start to the season, but Engram is still a talented player with plenty of opportunity, especially now that both Sterling Shepard and Darius Slayton are nursing hamstring injuries and are very questionable for Week 4.
