MLB Best Bets – Free (Wednesday 5/15)
Josh Gross
Each week in this space, I’m going to take a trip through the FTN air yards tool to find some of the most interesting and actionable takeaways for fantasy football.
Air yards represent the distance the ball travels from the line of scrimmage to the intended target. Regardless of whether a pass was complete or incomplete, air yards measure the amount of ground covered from passer to pass catcher. It does not account for the yards after catch on a completed pass. When calculating air yards, it’s important to keep in mind that not all air yards are created equal. An on-target throw is much more valuable than an uncatchable ball, even if the air yards are greater. Although air yards are not inductive of fantasy success, it’s a great way to calculate opportunity. The Weighted Opportunity Rating incorporates players’ share of team targets and the percentage of team air yards. Fantasy scoring is difficult to predict; however, opportunities are usually a stick stat and can translate to current and future output. Every week I will go position by position, highlighting the leaders in air yards. You can access the free air yards tool at FTN Fantasy.
Week 3 Air Yards Leaders
Quarterback
Joe Flacco, New York Jets
(515 Air Yards, fantasy QB32)
With Zach Wilson sidelined for the first three games, Joe Flacco has quietly led the league in pass attempts (155) and is fifth in passing yards (156). In Week 3, Flacco had the second most pass attempts, completing 28 of 52 passes for 285 yards, two interceptions, and no touchdowns. His 515 air yards did not translate into fantasy success, as Flacco finished dead last among all starting quarterbacks on the week. The Flacco era seems to be coming to an end in New York, as Wilson looks to make his season debut in Week 4.
Runner-Up: Jameis Winston, New Orleans Saints (488 Air Yards, QB14)
Season Leader: Jameis Winston, New Orleans Saints (1,314 Air Yards, QB15)
Wide Receiver
DeVante Parker, New England Patriots
(212 Air Yards, fantasy WR11)
During the offseason, the Patriots acquired DeVante Parker from the Dolphins. Parker was quiet in his debut as a Patriot, catching just one pass for nine yards in Week 1. He was somehow worse in Week 2, failing to log a single reception. Fortunately for Parker managers, he rebounded significantly in Week 3, leading the team in targets (10), receptions (5) and yards (156). He benefited from the absence of Jakobi Meyers, who had been operating as the Patriots WR1 over the past two seasons. Although Parker led all pass catchers in air yards (212), he finished second to DeVonta Smith in receiving yards (169). Parker’s outlook for Week 4 is unclear, with Meyers and Mac Jones listed as questionable.
Runner-Up: DeVonta Smith, Philadelphia Eagles (205 Air Yards, WR1)
Season Leader: Chris Olave, New Orleans Saints (536 Air Yards, WR22)
Tight End
Kyle Pitts, Atlanta Falcons
(165 Air Yards, fantasy TE6)
Prior to Week 3, Kyle Pitts was trending toward bust status, failing to eclipse two catches and being held under 20 receiving yards in either of the first two weeks. When asked about Pitts’ limited production, Falcons’ head coach Arthur Smith stated, “It’s not fantasy football. We’re trying to win, and we’ll continue to look at everything and trying to get better.” Despite Smith’s comments, the Falcons got Pitts involved early and often in Week 3. He led the team in targets (10), receptions (5), and receiving yards (87), finishing as a TE1 for the first time this season (TE6). Week 3 was a step in the right direction for Pitts, who should continue to be featured for the rest of the season.
Runner-Up: Mark Andrews, Baltimore Ravens (152 Air Yards, TE1)
Season Leader: Mark Andrews, Baltimore Ravens (376 Air Yards, TE1)
Running Back
Breece Hall, New York Jets
(67 Air Yards, fantasy RB13)
After spending a 2022 second-round pick on Breece Hall, the Jets have opted to roll with second-year running back Michael Carter as the starter. Week 3 was a positive sign for Hall, who outsnapped Carter for the first time this season. He saw six more opportunities (carries and targets) than Carter and out-targeted him 11 to 2. Hall led all running backs in targets in Week 3 and trails only Austin Ekeler in running back targets on the season (21). He is also first in air yards on the season (89). Hall should continue to carve out a larger role in the backfield but could lose passing work with Zach Wilson back under center.
Runner-Up: Alvin Kamara, New Orleans Saints (26 Air Yards, RB40)
Season Leader: Breece Hall, New York Jets (89 Air Yards, RB17)
