Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
With over 100 best ball and seasonal drafts in the books, it’s time to reveal the 2023 “My Guys” fantasy football list.
These are five players I have ranked higher than consensus and have dominant exposure to entering this season. It’s critical to have an idea of your seasonal “flag plants,” so as to create a general plan prior to entering the draft. You should always adjust to how the draft proceeds, as each fantasy draft provides unique opportunities, but having a strategy before you enter the draft room provides a huge advantage.
I assume 0.5-point scoring, and also delineate certain unique formats that create an even bigger edge for some of these players.
Justin Herbert, QB, Los Angeles Chargers
There are many reasons to be bullish on Justin Herbert, starting with new offensive coordinator Kellen Moore. Head coach Brandon Staley will always have a schematically prepared defense, but Los Angeles has been searching for a way to unlock their talented offense. After a promising 2021 season where the Chargers posted 27.9 PPG (fifth best), Los Angeles regressed to just 23.4 PPG last season. Herbert threw for 13 fewer touchdowns and almost 300 fewer yards despite attempting only three passes less.
New OC Moore was fired from Dallas because of his pass-heavy tendencies. He now gets to guide a Chargers team with the following offensive weapons:
- Austin Ekeler: 38 touchdowns the past two seasons
- Keenan Allen: Four season of 100-plus receptions (2017-2022)
- Mike Williams: 14.2 YPR in four straight seasons
- The Chargers also spent a first-round pick on 6-foot-3 wideout Quentin Johnston from TCU, giving Herbert a third explosive wideout on the outside.
Under Moore, Dallas ranked second and third in team plays per game in 2020 and 2021, which is great news for Herbert. Our Dan Fornek also ranks the Chargers offensive line as the NFL’s sixth best, especially with Rashawn Slater projecting for a full return from a torn bicep in Week 3.
Los Angeles has a very favorable early-season schedule, facing Miami, Tennessee, Minnesota and Las Vegas. Last year, all four teams finished among the bottom five teams in passing yards allowed per our FTN Advanced Defensive Team Stats.
Herbert’s critics say he is being drafted at his ceiling (current QB7) because of his lack of perceived rushing upside. He has averaged over 270 rushing yards and four rushing touchdowns over the past two years. That is certainly decent production, especially when you consider he has 35-plus passing touchdowns well within his range of outcomes.
If you miss out on the top three quarterbacks, don’t be afraid to pull the trigger on a player who has overall QB1 upside but is available in Rounds 5 of 6 of most drafts.
Kenny Pickett, QB, Pittsburgh Steelers
I’m buying what we’ve seen from the Steelers offense this preseason. Kenny Pickett looks fantastic and is a screaming value as the current QB21 on Underdog.
Pickett was fantastic as a college senior, throwing for over 4300 yards and 42 touchdowns with the Pittsburgh Panthers. The hometown hero is now the lead signal-caller for the Steelers and has a treasure chest of weapons at his disposal.
Wide receivers Diontae Johnson and George Pickens are among the best tandems in the league, tight end Pat Freiermuth has posted 60 and 63 receptions in each of his first two seasons, and both Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren are prolific pass-catching running backs. He is even due for some positive touchdown regression, per FTN’s own Scott Spratt.
The Steelers addressed a weakness at left guard by signing former Eagles guard Isaac Seumalo in free agency and moved up in the first round to secure their left tackle of the future in Broderick Jones out of Georgia. Sprinkle in his 4.73 speed, and we even had a bit of rushing upside with the 25-year-old second-year quarterback.
Pickett is a superb QB2 in two-QB leagues, and I can even make an argument as a weekly QB option if you choose to stream the position.
James Cook, RB, Buffalo Bills
I am way above consensus on James Cook, who is skyrocketing up my rankings, currently residing as my overall RB16.
While only attempting 89 rushes last season, Cook had remarkable efficiency in the backfield of one of the most explosive offenses in the league. Per our Directional Running/Receiving Stats, Cook’s efficiency ranked among the NFL’s best when compared to either running backs or quarterbacks.
Cook was extremely efficient as a pass catcher, accumulating an impressive 1.43 yards per route run, ranking 15th among all running backs. He lined up out wide 12% of the time, the fifth most at the position. The biggest key for Cook is the departure of Devin Singletary to Houston. Cook should see a huge increase near the goal line after Singletary out-carried Cook 35-13 in the red zone. Buffalo did bring in Damien Harris, but the former New England bruiser has continued his injury history from last season. The other main competition from last year, Nyheim Hines, was injured prior to training camp and will miss the entire year after knee surgery. Buffalo did sign veteran Latavius Murray, but all signs point to Cook having an early-season opportunity to dominate the backfield touches.
Cook is currently being drafted outside the top-24 running backs on Underdog, carrying an ADP of 76.8 (RB25). All Cook needs is volume as the lead RB in a Buffalo offense that ranked third in points per game in each of the past two seasons. With his competition falling by the wayside, I’m all-in on James Cook as a high-end RB2 in 2023.
Brian Robinson, RB, Washington Commanders
I have strongly believed all summer that Brian Robinson’s ADP should be ahead of teammate Antonio Gibson. At 6-foot-2, 223 pounds, with 4.53 speed, Robinson fantasy impact is one of the most understated storylines of the offseason. With the near-tragic events of last season now behind him, Robinson appears to be thriving in new offensive coordinator’s Eric Bienemy’s system both as a rusher and receiver.
Bieniemy joined the Commanders from Kansas City, where he resurrected Jerick McKinnon’s career with a league-winning fantasy season in 2022. Per our FTN Fantasy Finishes Tool, McKinnon’s consecutive overall RB1 performances in Weeks 14 and 15 were championship-altering for a veteran RB that went undrafted in most leagues.
The automatic assumption is that Gibson will now be transformed into that type of player under Bieniemy’s tutelage in Washington. However, Gibson was already being used in that role for the past three seasons and has seen a sharp decline in fantasy points per game. In his first two seasons, Gibson tallied 22 scores on 506 touches, equating to one touchdown every 23 touches. As a comparison, Cleveland’s Nick Chubb, who has finished third and second overall in rushing yards during the past two years, averages one touchdown every 26.2 touches.
Last season, Gibson saw a regression in his touchdown rate (5 scores in 195 touches) and plummeted to the PPR RB28 in FPPG. He has seen a rushing efficiency decrease, dropping his yards per attempt from 4.7 as a rookie to 3.7 last year.
Gibson is still getting drafted ahead of Brian Robinson (RB33 to RB36) on Underdog, but Robinson should get the majority of rushing attempts and goal line work with an increase in passing game usage. Robinson has clear top-24 RB potential, whereas Gibson needs an injury to even approach that level of weekly fantasy production.
Bieniemy certainly produces quality RB fantasy production, but why not pick the bigger, stronger and underrated receiver in Robinson, with a later ADP?
Skyy Moore, WR, Kansas City Chiefs
The player with my highest overall exposure in Underdog’s Best Ball Mania IV? Skyy Moore of the Kansas City Chiefs.
I wrote effusively about Moore in this article back in early June. At the time he was going as the overall WR56 with an 11th-round ADP of 124.5. Now? He is being drafted as the WR44 with an ADP of 89.9 overall.
Moore’s impact as a rookie was limited, although he did catch a touchdown in the Super Bowl while playing in place of Kadarius Toney.
With second-round draft capital from last season and a resume with prolific college production (94/1283/10 in his final season), the Chiefs have every reason to give Moore a chance to ascend to the WR1 position. Kadarius Toney is again battling injuries and Marquez Valdes-Scantling is a 28-year-old veteran wideout who has totaled just 165 receptions in 76 career games.
This Chiefs offense goes through tight end Travis Kelce, but there is a need for an elite WR1 to maintain Kansas City’s elite passing attack. The Chiefs have averaged 38.5 passing attempts per game over the last two seasons, third-most during that time. I’m drafting all the Skyy Moore I can this season, loving his value outside the overall WR3 range.
