Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Week 1 brings us a fantastic AFC East matchup between the Buffalo Bills and New York Jets. Based on odds, the Bills are one of the favorites to win the Super Bowl, while the Jets are actually the most heavily-bet team to win this year’s title. With two great quarterbacks in Josh Allen and Aaron Rodgers, supported by two of the league’s best defenses, tonight’s Monday Night Football matchup should be a very close contest.
Here is my favorite prop bet for tonight’s AFC East showdown!
Josh Allen Under 251.5 Passing Yards
(-115, DraftKings)
The first bet I’m looking at is Josh Allen under 251.5 passing yards. This game carries a 45-point over/under and has been bet down from the opening of 46.5 points. The last eight games between these two teams have only averaged 36.5 PPG, which includes a skewed 45-17 trouncing by Buffalo in 2021.
New York now has Aaron Rodgers under center, who prefers to run his offenses at a snail’s pace. Last year, per the FTN Pace/Playcalling Tool, the Packers were dead last in seconds per snap at 29.6 seconds per play, beating out such slogs as San Francisco and Atlanta. This wasn’t a one-year trend, with Green Bay finishing last again at 30.2 second per snap in 2021.
That should translate into less opportunities for Allen, which means suppressed passing game production. Allen has already struggled against his divisional rival, seeing reduced numbers in all major passing categories against the Jets.
With Jets cornerback Sauce Gardner limiting wide receiver Stefon Diggs, New York’s defense should continue their stifling results from last season. The Jets allowed the second-fewest points per game last season (18.6), trailing only San Francisco. In their last two matchups, Allen has posted 205 passing yards and 147 passing yards, with under a 60% completion percentage in both games. I’m grabbing the under on Allen’s passing yardage prop at DraftKings and enjoying the extra cushion above the lowest number at BetRivers (246.5).
