NBA Postseason Best Bets (5/3)
Alex Christenson
I’ll run through my four favorite player props for this year’s NFL Thanksgiving games. If you want more action, check out our game-by-game breakdown for the three-game Thanksgiving DFS slate.
Rhamondre Stevenson Over 3.5 Receptions
(-140, BetMGM)
Rhamondre Stevenson has at least 4 catches in six of eight games. He has a 28%-29%-28% target rate in his last three games. He leads the team in targets over his last four.
Lawrence Cager Over 15.5 Receiving Yards
(-110, BetMGM)
Lawrence Cager outsnapped Tanner Hudson 74% to 16% last week. He ran a route on 70% of Daniel Jones’ dropbacks and caught 2 balls for 20 yards (3 targets). Hudson did not see a target. With Wan’Dale Robinson (30% target rate last week) out, and the script likely forcing the Giants to pass again, Cager should be even more active.
Dalton Schultz Over 37.5 Receiving Yards
(-115, DraftKings Sportsbook)
Dalton Schultz lined up in the slot for 44% and 49% of snaps in his last two games. NYG is also 30th in DVOA against TEs (per Football Outsiders), allowing 6.1 receptions for 67.8 yards and 0.69 touchdowns per game. The only risk I see is Dallas dominating and going run-heavy — last week they ran it 40 times to just 25 pass attempts in the blowout. Schultz posted 5-49-0, 6-74-0 and 6-54-1 prior to the 3-22-0 on a 20% target rate — the fourth consecutive game he has seen at least 20% of Dak Prescott’s attempts.
CeeDee Lamb Over 5.5 Receptions
(+102, FanDuel Sportsbook)
Adoree’ Jackson and Xavier McKinney are out. Fabian Moreau is looking doubtful. That means 75% of their starting secondary is out. Darnay Holmes is left in the slot, but this defense has been killed by slot WRs (slot rates per PFF):
- CeeDee Lamb 8-87-1 (39% slot)
- Randall Cobb 7-99-0 (13 targets, 84% slot)
- Christian Kirk 7-96-0 (10 targets, 75% slot)
- Tyler Lockett 5-63-1 (8 targets, 42% slot)
- Chris Moore 3-70-0 (6 targets, 82% slot)
- Amon-Ra St. Brown 7-76-0 (8 targets, 41% slot)
Lamb played 54% slot in Week 11, 56% in Week 10.
