MagicSportsGuide – NFC East

2019 record: 3-13 | 2020 Projection: 5-11
Head coach: Joe Judge (First year)
Offensive coordinator: Jason Garrett (First year)
Defensive coordinator: Patrick Graham (First year)

Check out Derek Brown and Anthony Amico’s breakdown of the Panther’s system, play calling and coaching breakdown: 

Play Calling/System/Coaching Breakdown 

2020 Draft Picks

Round 1, pick 4: Andrew Thomas, OL, Georgia

Round 2, pick 36: Xavier McKinney, S, Alabama

Round 3, pick 99: Matt Peart, OT, Connecticut

Round 4, pick 110: Darnay Holmes, CB, UCLA

Round 5, pick 150: Shane Lemieux, G, Oregon

Round 6, pick 183: Cam Brown, LB, Penn State

Round 7, pick 218: Carter Coughlin, LB, Minnesota

Round 7, pick 238: T.J. Brunson, ILB, South Carolina

Round 7, pick 247: Chris Williamson, CB, Minnesota

Round 7, pick 255: Tae Crowder, LB, Georgia

Offensive Additions

QB Colt McCoy, RB Dion Lewis, TE Levine Toilolo, OT Cameron Fleming

Defensive Additions

DT Austin Johnson, DE/OLB Kyler Fackrell, LB Blake Martinez, CB James Bradberry, S Nate Ebner, CB Logan Ryan 

Offseason Losses

QB Eli Manning, WR Corey Coleman, OT Mike Remmers, LB Alec Ogletree, LB Deone Bucannon, CB Deandre Baker (legal),  K Aldrick Rosas (legal)

Opt Outs

WR David Sills, LB Josiah Tauaefa, LT Nate Solder

Schedule

Week 2 – @CHI (+5.5)

Week 3 – SF (+7)

Week 4 – @LAR (+7)

Week 5 – @DAL (+7)

Week 6 – WAS (-3)

Week 7 – @PHI (N/A)

Week 8 – TB (+3.5)

Week 9 – @WAS (-1)

Week 10 – PHI (N/A)

Week 11 – BYE 

Week 12 – @CIN (-1)

Week 13 – @SEA (N/A)

Week 14 – ARI (pk)

Week 15 – CLE (+1.5)

Week 16 – @BAL (+11)

Week 17 – DAL (+3.5)

Week 1

+4.5 vs PITT (MNF), O/U 47.5 (-110)

Implied Team Totals: PIT 25.5 | NYG 21.5

This matchup fits my qualifier of new coaches/systems against an established defensive system. Pitt comes in ranked first in projected DVOA, after finishing third last season. They are loaded at every level of the defense.

Defense

The Giants finished with a big split which made them a favorite pass funnel to attack. I have written about this many times, but in case you are new to my article, here you go. In today’s game, teams that can stop the run are doing a disservice to themselves. It forces teams to throw more, which we know is the more efficient way to score points. This caused them to give up the fifth-most FPPG to WRs and fourth-most to QBs, despite having the 26th-lowest pass rate against (31st pass DVOA, 7th rush). 

“BIG” Dexter Lawrence was great, but he, like the rest of this unit, is large and strong against the run but struggled to rush the passer which is the kiss of death to a secondary. Speaking of which, I like the addition of James Bradbury, who had a great year in CAR, despite giving up big games to Michael Thomas and Mike Evans. The NFC South is a murderers row for CBs, so Bradbury should do well in his new home. The issue here is depth. They just traded for Isaac Yiadom to go along with Corey Ballentine (6th round pick, 132 passer rating in coverage in 2019), and veteran Logan Ryan inside. The Giants are very bullish on Ryan, who is well past his prime. The veteran got torched for 17 FPPG in coverage over his last eight non-week 17 games.

Offense

The Giants invested in their biggest need with the fourth overall pick, taking Andrew Thomas to play RG, opposite Nate Solder, that is until Solder opted out. Thomas will slide over to LT now and veteran Cameron Fleming will play RG. This will likely force third-round selection Matt Paert into more playing time. Per Giants.com, “Peart came to camp in remarkable shape and has looked every bit a starting-quality offensive tackle.” I focus on the line with NYG, as we know they have a ton of talent at the skill positions. The issue has been an offensive line that has averaged 4 adjusted YPC in consecutive years. They may round into shape as the season progresses, but they will be a unit to target coming out of the gate.  

I have always had a mancrush on Evan Engram’s profile, especially with his 90+ percentile height-adjusted speed score. However, he is constantly playing hurt, having suffered a season-ending Lisfranc surgery last year to cap a rough two seasons that saw him play a total of 19 games. His injuries include an MCL, hamstring strain, knee sprain (2018) and ankle sprain (2018). But he made it through camp unscathed and is a candidate to lead the team in target share if he can stay on the field. 

Sterling Shepard has also been getting talked up at camp and is my favorite of the three NYG WRs for fantasy. He, too, is an injury waiting to happen, but while he is on the field, he produces. I would prefer he play inside, but Golden Tate ruins that plan when they are both on the field. Per FO, Shepard was just over league average in DVOA when lined up inside, but fell to -28% on his outside routes. 

Health is the theme with this team, who played just one game with Engram, Shepard, Tate and Saquon on the field. And Tate is already dealing with a hamstring injury. Corey Coleman won the fourth WR spot, who along with newly-acquired Dion Lewis and rookie standout Darius Slayton, make up the Giants pass-catching core. Again, we have never seen this group play together so there is no sample on how the distribution of targets would go. As much as I like Engram, his ADP is expensive and I prefer to be loading up on RB/WR in that part of the draft.

Bets

NYG UNDER 5.5 wins (+143)

NYG UNDER 6 wins (-105)

NYG Under 5.5 wins (-160)

PIT -4 (-105) – Week 1 

Rough year for a big turnover in terms of coaching/systems and players. On top of that, NYG has a brutal schedule, playing the second-toughest schedule in terms of projected defensive efficiency (per Warren Sharp). They have to play PITT, BAL, SF, SEA, TB, PHI (2) and DAL (2), who all project out as top-10 defensive units heading into 2020.

Camp Notes/Updates

Jul 29, 2020 – Jordan Raanan – ESPN Staff Writer

New York Giants offensive tackle Nate Solder has opted out of the 2020 NFL season because of concerns over the coronavirus pandemic. Solder cited family concerns, including his son’s battle with cancer and his own bout with cancer. He also has a newborn son.

Golden Tate (lower body) is day-to-day with a possible hamstring injury, Jordan Raanan of ESPN.com reports.

CB Darnay Holmes has been one of the biggest standouts of the summer, which was especially important in a young Giants secondary. During Thursday’s scrimmage, the fourth-round pick from UCLA saved two touchdowns on passes in the end zone

QB Daniel Jones — New York Giants (@Giants) September 3, 2020

In the final tune-up, Jones looked sharp from the beginning. He opened with a touchdown pass to wide receiver Alex Bachman and later found tight end, Evan Engram, for another score. He also showed good moves in the pocket to avoid some pressure and get out of trouble while keeping his eyes downfield

— New York Giants (@Giants) September 3, 2020

RB Saquon Barkley

Barkley scored a touchdown pretty much untouched, thanks to blocks from tackle Cam Fleming and tight end Levine Toilolo.

2019 record: 9-7 | 2020 Projection: 9-7
Head Coach: Doug Pederson (Fifth season) 
Offensive Coordinator: Doug Pederson (Fifth season)
Defensive Coordinator:  Jim Schwartz  (Fifth season)

Play Calling/System/Coaching Breakdown  

2020 Draft Picks

Round 1, pick 21: Jalen Reagor, WR, TCU

Round 2, pick 53: Jalen Hurts, QB, Oklahoma

Round 3, pick 103: Davion Taylor, OLB, Colorado

Round 4, pick 127: K’Von Wallace, S, Clemson

Round 4, pick 145: Jack Driscoll, OT, Auburn

Round 5, pick 168: John Hightower, WR, Boise State

Round 6, pick 196: Shaun Bradley, LB Temple

Round 6, pick 200: Quez Watkins, WR, Southern Miss

Round 6, pick 210: Prince Tega Wanogho, OT, Auburn

Round 7, pick 233: Casey Toohill, OLB, Stanford

Offensive Additions

WR Marquise Goodwin

Defensive Additions

NT Javon Hargrave, LB Jatavis Brown, CB Darius Slay, CB Nickell Robey-Coleman, S Will Parks

Offseason Losses

QB Josh McCown, RB Jordan Howard, WR Nelson Agholor, OT Halapoulivaati Vaitai, DE Vinny Curry, DT Timmy Jernigan, LB Nigel Bradham, LB Kamu Grugier-Hill, CB Ronald Darby, S Malcolm Jenkins

COVID-19 List

LB Nathan Gerry, OL Lane Johnson, OL Jordan Mailata 

Schedule

Week 2 – LAR

Week 3 – CIN

Week 4 – @SF

Week 5 – PIT

Week 6 – BAL 

Week 7 – NYG (TNF)

Week 8 – DAL

Week 9 – BYE WEEK 

Week 10 – @NYG

Week 11 – @CLE

Week 12 – SEA (MNF)

Week 13 – @GB

Week 14 – NO

Week 15 – @ARI

Week 16 – @DAL

Week 17 – WAS

(Future point spreads have been taken down w/ their injury problems)

Week 1

-6 @ WASH, O/U 43

Implied Team Totals: PHI 24.5 | WASH 18.5

I see a large range of outcomes with this game, as do the linemakers, with many just pulling the game completely. My original thought is the total is too low, but after analysis I think it is on the money, as a banged-up Eagles squad on the road may not be “flying high”. I will circle back on this game after the full write up this week.

Defense

Philly went out and signed CBs Darius Slay and Nickell-Robey Coleman, two of the best free agent CBs on the market. This should tighten up the Achilles heel of this defense over the past 2-3 seasons, the secondary. Last year, they were league average in terms of pass DVOA (5.6 YPP allowed, 17th), but again funnelled teams into the more effective way of playing football by being so stout up front (15th pass/3rd rush, after 18th/8th in 2018). Their pass rush was just a notch below league average last season, which is not a good combo when you are trying to minimize damage to a secondary. That led to them allowing the third-most FPPG to opposing WRs after finishing in a similar position in 2018. Enter Slay, who between contract, trade and injury drama last season had an off year when compared to previous campaigns. Despite a perceived drop off, he still finished top 12 in catch rate allowed in coverage, top 4 in pass breakups and 11th in coverage rating, per Player Profiler. Coleman has always been an underrated slot CB. He is undersized, but he consistently keeps his reception rate against in the 55-60% range, which is elite. With NYG featuring Shepard and Tate, and CeeDee Lamb joining Dallas, this was a great signing for Philly. My only other note here is about individual matchups when targeting this Philly team. Avonte Maddux is the other outside CB, which means he is going to see some targets flow his way, with Slay presumably on the team’s No. 1. That said, Slay only traveled inside on 10% of snaps last season, and I would be surprised if Coleman ever lines up outside. My guess is Slay travels even less this season, and it is one of the things I will be watching closely in week one with their matchup against my boy, Scary Terry. 

Offense

As always, there is some disconnect between PFF and what happens on the field. They were middle of the pack in adjusted sack rate, third in total pressure drop backs and 14th in adjusted line yards per carry. The problem for this unit heading into 2020 is that 2019 first-round pick Andre Dillard was put on IR, leaving the most important position of the unit vulnerable. There has been talk of moving Jason Peters over, but he wants to be paid like a LT to do it. This offense was a MASH unit last year and is already going that way again with Dillard gone, Jalen Reagor out for at least four weeks and DeSean Jackson all of two games away from being hurt again (21 games missed in his last three seasons). That will put the TEs and RBs back in the fold for Carson Wentz, who targeted them on nearly 60% of pass attempts in 2019. Dallas Goedert is the man for me in fantasy at his ADP, with an already thin core and this systems love of the TE (39% target rate in 2019), he is a lock for 15% target share this season, even if Zach Ertz stays healthy (15.6% in 2019). If something happens to Ertz (turns 30 this season), you have a league winner.

Bets 

Many books have pulled Eagles futures. I lean UNDER 10 if you can find it. I do like the Cowboys to win the division, with the Eagles second, so if you see that bet back on the board, go for it. 

Camp Notes/Updates 

@GeoffMosherNFL – Early word on #Eagles first-round pick Jalen Reagor is that he won’t need surgery, but probably out about four weeks.

Per ESPN – “Negotiations between the Philadelphia Eagles and tight end Zach Ertz have come to an abrupt halt when the Eagles made an offer that had less guaranteed money than their offer in November, according to sources. The back-loaded offer also had less cash over the next four years annually than on Browns tight end Austin Hooper‘s contract. It might have something to do with the fact that emerging tight end Dallas Goedert is also on the roster, and Ertz still has two years left on his current deal. Ertz remains a high-end, top-five fantasy player at his position, but his ceiling is lowered with Goedert becoming a bigger part of the offense and Philly adding other receiving options through the draft and free agency”

Per TheEaglesWire.com 

(here we go again, Philly can’t stay healthy) 

“The Philadelphia Eagles returned to practice on Wednesday and two new names appeared on the injury list with Avonte Maddox day-to-day with a lower-body injury.

Will Parks was the biggest name on the list and the Eagles versatile will miss multiple weeks with a lower-body injury as well.”

Eagles injury report:

Maddox (lower body) – day to day

Parks (lower body) – multiple weeks

— Tim McManus (@Tim_McManus) September 2, 2020

The NFL Network’s James Palmer is reporting that Parks is dealing with a hamstring injury.

#Eagles DB Will Parks suffered a hamstring injury per source. Original timetable is 4-6 weeks, but knowing Parks’s past with injuries, I would assume there’s a good chance it will be shorter than that.

— James Palmer (@JamesPalmerTV) September 2, 2020

Parks’s absence could provide more reps and playmaking opportunities for Eagles rookie and former Clemson star, K’Von Wallace.

Head Coach: Mike McCarthy (First year)
Offensive Coordinator:  Kellen Moore (Second year)     
Defensive Coordinator: Mike Nolan (First year)
2019 record: 8-8 | 2020 Projection: 10-6

Play Calling/System/Coaching Breakdown  

2020 Draft Picks

Round 1, pick 17: CeeDee Lamb, WR, Oklahoma

Round 2, pick 51: Trevon Diggs, CB, Alabama

Round 3, pick 82: Neville Gallimore, DT, Oklahoma

Round 4, pick 123: Reggie Robinson II, CB, Tulsa

Round 5, pick 146: Tyler Biadasz, C, Wisconsin

Round 5, pick 179: Bradlee Anae, DE, Utah

Round 7, pick 231: Ben DiNucci, QB, James Madison

Offensive Additions

QB Andy Dalton, OL Cameron Erving, WR CeeDee Lamb, CB Trevon Diggs, DT Neville Gallimore, CB Reggie Robinson, C Tyler Biadasz

Defensive Additions

DE Everson Griffen, DE Aldon Smith, DT Gerald McCoy, DT Dontari Poe, S Ha Ha Clinton-Dix, K Greg Zuerlein

Offseason Losses

WR Randall Cobb, TE Jason Witten, G Xavier Su’a-Filo, C Travis Frederick (retired), DE Robert Quinn, DT Maliek Collins, CB Byron Jones, S Jeff Heath

Schedule 

Week 2 – ATL (-7)

Week 3 – @SEA (N/A)

Week 4 – CLE (-5)

Week 5 – NYG (-7)

Week 6 – ARI (-6.5)

Week 7 – @WASH (-7.5)

Week 8 – @PHI (N/A)

Week 9 – PIT (-2.5)

Week 10 – BYE

Week 11 – @MIN (+2)

Week 12 – WAS (-10.5)

Week 13 – @BAL (+5.5)

Week 14 – @CIN (-6)

Week 15 – SF (+1)

Week 16 – PHI (N/A)

Week 17 – @NYG (-3.5)

Week 1

-2 @LAR, O/U 51

Implied Team Totals:  26.5 |  24.5

Offense

This offense is well publicized, with stars all over the field, and a top-2 offensive line (2019). They will need to fill the void left by Travis Frederick at center, who retired due to his fight with Guillain-Barré Syndrome. He missed the ‘18 season and they fell back to eighth in adjusted line yards (per football outsiders), making the play of incumbent Joe Looney so critical. 

Mike McCarthy takes over for Jason Garrett, with Kellen Moore staying in place as the OC. Many would guess BAL, but it was Dallas who finished first in total yards last season on 6.5 yards per play (1st). The problem was they finished seventh in total scoring, which combined with an 8-8 record led to the changes in upper management. 

Dak Prescott is primed for a breakout, or better yet, another breakout, with several underlying stats pointing up. He finished second in yards per pass attempt (9.4), fifth in 20+ yard attempts, second in deep ball completion rate, while still being an active/efficient runner, especially in the RZ. 

Per FO, Dak is the best short-yardage conversion QB in the last nine seasons, converting on 67.2%. The next highest is Drew Brees at 62.3% and Big Ben at 62%. That led Dallas to finish second in overall third down conversion rate at 47.06%, behind Lamar Jackson. 

Bets

Dallas to WIN NFC East (-110)

Camp Notes/Updates

CeeDee Lamb was spectacular (what’s new?) and Cedrick Wilson looks like the No. 4 receiver. Noah Brown and Devin Smith continue to duel behind them.

Rookie cornerback Trevon Diggs continues to assert himself while Chidobe Awuzie and Jourdan Lewis sit with injuries. Prescott had a bad overthrow that was intercepted by a leaping Diggs, who then negotiated his way cleverly and smoothly on a return.

2019 record: 3-13 | 2020 Projection: 4-12
Head Coach: Ron Rivera (First year)
Offensive Coordinator: Scott Turner (First year)
Defensive Coordinator:  Jack Del Rio (First year)

Play Calling/System/Coaching Breakdown  

2020 Draft Picks

Round 1, pick 2: Chase Young, EDGE, Ohio State

Round 3, pick 66: Antonio Gibson, WR, Memphis

Round 4, pick 108: Saahdiq Charles, OT, LSU

Round 4, pick 142: Antonio Gandy-Golden, WR, Liberty

Round 5, pick 156: Keith Ismael, C, San Diego State

Round 5, pick 162: Khaleke Hudson, LB, Michigan

Round 7, pick 216: Kamren Curl, S, Arkansas

Round 7, pick 229: James Smith-Williams, EDGE, NC State

Offensive Additions

QB Kyle Allen, RB Peyton Barber, RB J.D. McKissic, WR Cody Latimer, TE Richard Rodgers, G Wes Schweitzer

Defensive Additions

LB Thomas Davis, LB Kevin Pierre-Louis, CB Ronald Darby, CB Kendall Fuller

Offseason Losses

QB Case Keenum, RB Chris Thompson, WR Paul Richardson, TE Jordan Reed, OT Trent Williams, G Ereck Flowers, CB Quinton Dunbar, CB Josh Norman

Schedule

Week 2 – @ARI (+7)

Week 3 – @CLE(+7)

Week 4 – BAL ( +10)

Week 5 – LAR ( +5.5)

Week 6 – @NYG (+3)

Week 7 – DAL (+7.5)

Week 8 – BYE WEEK

Week 9 – NYG (+1)

Week 10 – @DET (N/A)

Week 11 – CIN (-2)

Week 12 – @DAL (+10.5)

Week 13 – @PIT (+9)

Week 14 – @SF (+13.5)

Week 15 – SEA (N/A)

Week 16 – CAR (pk)

Week 17 – @PHI (N/A)

Week 1

+6 vs. Philly, O/U 43

Implied Team Totals: 24.5 | 18.5

Camp Notes/Updates

Alex Smith didn’t win Washington’s starting quarterback job. But he is going to make its team.

“Albert Breer sent a rather low-key tweet listing players on a number of teams that he has heard are  being discussed in trade talks ahead of the Saturday 4 p.m. ET deadline for the initial roster cut down to 53. Breer says Ryan Anderson, who has been an OLB since joining the team, but whom coaches have said will be a DE in the 4-3 defensive alignment being implemented by Jack Del Rio, is available for trade”.