Loechner’s FFPC Playoff Challenge Plays

The Fantasy Football Players Championship (FFPC) Playoff Challenge is back for the 2021-2022 NFL season. The main event has a $200 entry fee, a top prize of $500,000, and over $1 million in total prize money. 

You can take a look at the official rules and scoring settings here, but the primary thing to know is that you will pick a total of 12 players — 1 QB, 2 RBs, 2 WRs, 1 TE, 4 Flex, 1 K, 1 DST — but only one player from each team is allowed. So if you take Tom Brady at quarterback, you can’t have any other Buccaneers players on your team.

You set your lineup once (before Wild Card weekend) and it stays that way for the entirety of the playoffs, so choose carefully. Yours truly will compete once again under the team name Loechner’s Peaches. There are 7,249 other available entries – come take me on! 

Key Things To Consider For the FFPC Playoff Challenge

• This is a large-field tournament with over 7,000 entrants, so you’ll have to get contrarian and gain leverage with some of your picks. It’s tempting to just “pick the best players” — because you can — but game theory matters here.
• You obviously want players that will play as many games as possible, but choosing the right one- and two-offs is also extremely important. You’ll have a rooting interest in 12 teams, which will quickly whittle to 8, 4, and 2. The teams thin out quickly.
• Correlation matters in this tournament. You’re not going to accurately predict every single deviation of every single possible outcome for the postseason, but you can – and should – still correlate your teams to an extent.

Odds for Each Team to Make the Super Bowl

Here are the odds for each team to make it to the Super Bowl, as of January 10, 2022.

AFC

• Kansas City Chiefs: 7/4
• Tennessee Titans: 33/10
• Buffalo Bills: 7/2
• Cincinnati Bengals: 7/1
• New England Patriots: 10/1
• Las Vegas Raiders: 20/1
• Pittsburgh Steelers: 35/1

In the AFC, the Chiefs, Titans, Bills, and Bengals all have solid odds of playing 2-3 games.

NFC

• Green Bay Packers: 8/5
• Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 7/2
• Los Angeles Rams: 9/2
• Dallas Cowboys: 6/1
• San Francisco 49ers: 10/1
• Arizona Cardinals: 12/1
• Philadelphia Eagles: 30/1

In the NFC, the Packers, Buccaneers, Rams, and Cowboys all have solid odds of playing 2-3 games.

How Many Games Each Team is Projected To Play

The figures below were compiled using my own projections for the playoffs.

Let’s go through thoughts on a team-by-team basis.

Green Bay Packers (1)

Top Options: Aaron Rodgers (QB), Davante Adams (WR)

Other Options: Aaron Jones (RB)

Notes: There are a lot of great QB options in the Wild Card round, which will keep Rodgers’ ownership lower since he’s missing a full game. Davante Adams may end up being the most-owned player of the entire tournament. Aaron Jones is the natural pivot.

Tennessee Titans (1)

Top Options: Derrick Henry (RB), AJ Brown (WR)

Other Options: Randy Bullock (K), Titans D (DST)

Notes: You’re either taking Derrick Henry or AJ Brown, or you’re quasi-fading the Titans by taking their DST or K. A full fade of the Titans would make you different if you don’t believe that they’re really a top-seed caliber team.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2)

Top Options: Tom Brady (QB), Mike Evans (WR), Leonard Fournette (RB), Rob Gronkowski (TE)

Other Options: Buccaneers D (DST)

Notes: Brady is going to be one of the most popular QBs given his chance to play four full games. Leonard Fournette is going to be much less widely owned than he probably should be because people will be scared of his injury. The target tree is Mike Evans and Rob Gronkowski and nobody else. Don’t forget that FFPC is tight end-premium, making Gronk more valuable. The Bucs D is a contrarian play only with their path potentially consisting of the Eagles followed by the pick-six-happy Rams.

Kansas City Chiefs (2)

Top Options: Patrick Mahomes (QB), Tyreek Hill (WR), Travis Kelce (TE)

Other Options: Clyde Edwards-Helaire (RB), Darrel Williams (RB)

Notes: The Chiefs have the second-most expected games played according to the calculations up top. Hill is going to have the lowest ownership rate of the Mahomes-Kelce-Hill grouping because he’s hurt and hasn’t popped off in a while (by his standards). Kelce gets the TE premium boost. Mahomes is the top QB option of the tournament with four potential games played and an easy first matchup against the Steelers.

Los Angeles Rams (3)

Top Options: Cooper Kupp (WR)

Other Options: Matthew Stafford (QB), Odell Beckham (WR), Rams D (DST)

Notes: Kupp will rival Adams for the highest ownership rate of the tournament. You should probably just take Kupp and not overthink this one. Rams running backs are essentially impossible to trust given that it’s now a big committee position. Stafford is a contrarian QB play, Beckham is the contrarian non-Kupp pay, and the Rams D is the “soft fade” choice

Buffalo Bills (3)

Top Options: Josh Allen (QB), Stefon Diggs (WR)

Other Options: Devin Singletary (RB), Bills D (DST)

Notes: Allen rivals Brady and Mahomes as arguably the best QB option of the tournament. Singletary has been on fire recently and is a strong play as the featured back in Buffalo (and he’s actually scoring touchdowns now). Buffalo does have to face a divisional rival (the Patriots) in the first round.

Dallas Cowboys (4)

Top Options: Dak Prescott (QB), CeeDee Lamb (WR), Amari Cooper (WR)

Other Options: Ezekiel Elliott (RB), Dallas D (DST), Dalton Schultz (TE), Greg Zuerlein (K)

Notes: Prescott checks in as the fourth-best QB option on the board behind Mahomes, Brady, and Allen – all of whom have higher floors, higher ceilings, and are more likely to play more games. Lamb and Cooper are the top Cowboys skill players for this tournament. Schultz is the pivot away from the wide receivers and gets a boost in value thanks to the premium nature of the tournament. Elliott is still the RB you want to own for this tournament with the TD equity that he has. Cowboys D or Greg Zuerlein are the soft fade options

Cincinnati Bengals (4)

Top Options: Joe Burrow (QB), Ja’Marr Chase (WR)

Other Options: Tee Higgins (WR), Joe Mixon (RB), Evan McPherson (K)

Notes: Burrow is the No. 6 QB: Mahomes-Brady-Allen-Prescott-Murray and then Burrow. He won’t be popular, but if the Bengals make a deep playoff run, he’ll be the reason why. Chase gets the nod over Higgins given his TD equity and unrivaled ceiling. Higgins is still quite a strong play, especially because his ownership will be lower. McPherson is my favorite kicker on the board

Arizona Cardinals (5)

Top Options: Kyler Murray (QB), James Conner (RB)

Other Options: Chase Edmonds (RB), Christian Kirk (WR), Zach Ertz (TE)

Notes: As noted above, Murray is the No. 5 QB option and a strong choice if you think the Cardinals can make a deep playoff run. Conner is going to be the most popular Cardinals player with his huge TD equity. Edmonds is in play as a counter to Conner. Kirk and Ertz are also leverage options off of Conner and have been seeing elite volume ever since DeAndre Hopkins got hurt

Las Vegas Raiders (5)

Top Options: Hunter Renfrow (WR), Darren Waller (TE)

Other Options: Josh Jacobs (RB), Daniel Carlson (K)

Notes: My hunch is that Waller will be the most popular Raiders player given the premium scoring for TEs, but perhaps it should be Renfrow. He’s Derek Carr’s new favorite target, especially near the end zone. Jacobs, who is the team’s new bellcow and has been playing great, is a leverage play off of the RBs. Carlson is a soft fade option as a K with double-digit points easily within his range of outcomes

San Francisco 49ers (6)

Top Options: Deebo Samuel (WR), George Kittle (TE)

Other Options: Elijah Mitchell (RB)

Notes: Samuel and Kittle are the only 49ers players you should strongly consider. Mitchell is the contrarian pick. It’s hard to fully fade the 49ers because of the explosive playmaking ability of Samuel and Kittle.

New England Patriots (6)

Top Options: Damien Harris (RB)

Other Options: Rhamondre Stevenson (RB), Patriots D (DST), Nick Folk (K

Notes: The Patriots are a full fade option. But they also project very well in my model for games played (third-most). That’s because if they can get past the division rival Bills, their next opponent would likely be the Titans, a team they match up well against. The Patriots smashed the Titans 36-13 just over a month ago. I will likely not be fading the Patriots simply because I think if they make it past Wild Card weekend, I like their chances of playing at least 3 games.

Philadelphia Eagles (7)

Top Options: Dallas Goedert (TE)

Other Options: Miles Sanders (RB), DeVonta Smith (WR)

Notes: The Eagles are a full fade option. If they beat the Buccaneers, it will likely be because of Goedert, Sanders, or Smith. Hurts is hard to play because it’s virtually impossible to see the Eagles making a deep playoff run, and the opportunity cost of giving up the QB spot with such a high likelihood of only one game played is too much

Pittsburgh Steelers (7)

Top Options: Diontae Johnson (WR), Najee Harris (RB)

Other Options: Chris Boswell (K)

Notes: The Steelers are a full fade option. They’re easily the worst team in the playoffs and they’re playing arguably the best team in the playoffs in the first round. With that said, Johnson and Harris are interesting because the Steelers will likely be able to put up points against the Chiefs, even if it results in a loss. Boswell is a soft fade option