Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
Coming off a backbreaking loss Monday and sitting at 2-4, the Jets made the move many were waiting for Tuesday morning, trading for disgruntled Raiders receiver Davante Adams. The trade is for a condition third-round pick that can become a second-rounder based on performance, per Adam Schefter.
Adams will be reunited with his former Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers in New York. The two combined for three seasons of over 1,300 yards and five seasons of 10-plus touchdowns in their eight years together in Green Bay, including 1,374 yards and 18 touchdowns in 2020 and 1,553 yards and 11 touchdowns in 2021. He was traded to Las Vegas before the 2022 season, where he had 1,516 and 1,144 yards the last two seasons. Adams has only played three games so far in 2024 before missing time with a hamstring strain and requesting a trade.
In New York and when healthy, Adams will pair with Garrett Wilson to form maybe the best 1-2 punch of receivers in the league. The Jets are below average in scoring this season and have been top-heavy in weaponry, so having another piece to throw at defenses has to help.
That said, neither Wilson nor Adams is likely to command the target share we’ve been used to from either guy when paired with Rodgers, because both require targets. There is elite combined ceiling here, but unless Rodgers locks onto his former Packers buddy the way he has sometimes been known to, the days of any single Jets receiver getting 15-plus targets in a game are likely over.
On the other hand, Wilson’s problem so far in 2024 has been that he has demanded the attention of opponents. Adams’ presence means that will no longer be true. So while it’s true Wilson probably won’t have another 23-target game like he did in Week 5, the targets he will get will be that much more valuable. In other words, this is at worst a value-neutral move for him, with upside for more based on dramatically increased efficiency.
It will be hard for either Adams or Wilson to crack the WR1s given the presence of the other, but they should be very solid WR2s going forward.
Meanwhile, Adams’ arrival all but renders any secondary Jets pass-catchers irrelevant. Mike Williams was already trending that way, but it’s hard to imagine Allen Lazard and/or Tyler Conklin getting enough looks to be worthwhile outside of the deepest of leagues with Adams now commanding a target share along with Wilson and RB Breece Hall. (Williams will immediately become a prime trade target. Expect a lot of buzz in that regard. Chiefs?)
Rodgers himself might be the biggest winner, with Adams’ arrival raising his fantasy ceiling, but even Rodgers appears to have a cap on his outlook at this point. He’s a borderline fantasy starter at best.
In Las Vegas, we’ve seen what Adams’ absence has meant for the team with him out the last three weeks. Rookie TE Brock Bowers and (when healthy) Jakobi Meyers should dominate looks, with Tre Tucker the next man up after them. That said, the Raiders offense is fairly rudderless at the moment. Bowers is more than worth a look given his production and the paucity of elite tight ends, and Meyers is always good for a WR3-ish finish. But outside of those, you aren’t likely to find gold in the new Adams-less Las Vegas offense.
