Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Week 1 salaries are out on DraftKings, which means football is almost here. This also means the NFL DFS season is right around the corner. As exciting as it is, there are some key differences between the two major DFS sites in NFL, making it important to break down how to best approach NFL DFS on each site in 2021.
Join FTNDaily with our Early Bird NFL DFS package!
What are the best NFL DFS Sites? – FanDuel vs. DraftKings
What are the key differences between FanDuel and DraftKings when playing NFL DFS?
FanDuel NFL DFS
FanDuel has a more traditional scoring system, mirroring a standard half-PPR fantasy football league. Receptions are rewarded with an additional 0.5 points in addition to 0.1 per receiving (or rushing) yard and the traditional six points per receiving (or rushing) touchdown. A full summary of how your FanDuel NFL DFS roster is scored can be found here.
In terms of your roster, you have nine total spots to fill. Your roster will ultimately be compiled as follows: QB, RB, RB, WR, WR, WR, TE, RB/WR/TE, DEF. You have a total of $60,000 to utilize.
DraftKings NFL DFS
Unlike FanDuel, DraftKings takes their NFL DFS scoring one step further. In addition to scoring that mirrors a full-PPR fantasy football league, where you’re rewarded with a full point per reception in addition to 0.1 points per receiving (or rushing yard), players also receive performance bonuses. Players will receive an additional three points for a 100-plus rushing-yard game, three points for a 100-plus receiving-yard game, and three points for a 300-plus passing-yard game. A full summary of how your DraftKings NFL DFS roster is scored can be found here.
In terms of your roster, you have eight total spots to fill, structured as follows: QB, RB, RB, WR, WR, TE, RB/WR/TE, DEF. You have a total of $50,000 to utilize.
Join FTNDaily with our Early Bird NFL DFS package!
NFL DFS strategy – DraftKings and FanDuel
How should you go about building your lineup to maximize your return in NFL DFS? Let’s dive into general strategy on how to ensure a successful 2021 NFL DFS season.
Stacking in NFL DFS
Correlating your lineup to fit a narrative and maximize production exposure is the most important aspect in successfully conquering NFL DFS. This starts with simple strategies like stacking your quarterback with one of their prominent pass catchers. In addition to getting four points per passing touchdown and the points for passing yardage, you stack the production the receiver gets on the other end of the play, including six points for a receiving touchdown and their points for receiving yards.
This more than doubles the scoring value of a single play when you have both players involved. A single quarterback/wide receiver stack may be the most popular, but often, the best way to maximize production is by adding a second pass-catcher and/or including an offensive player(s) from the other side of the game, particularly if it’s projected to be a high-scoring affair.
For example, if you use the FTNBets Odds Tracker and see that the game between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the Green Bay Packers has an implied total of 56 points, there’s bound to be offensive production on both sides. Stacking your lineup to include Tom Brady, Chris Godwin and Rob Gronkowski gives you enough of the yardage and red-zone exposure from the Buccaneers offense, while adding Davante Adams to your lineup gives you a big scoring threat on the Packers as well. In what should be a high-scoring affair, you just put yourself in a position to potentially capitalize on the majority of the offensive production.
How do I make an NFL lineup on FanDuel or DraftKings?
How should you allocate your salary in NFL DFS? While there isn’t one clear-cut answer, there are multiple strategies that you can deploy to maximize your upside on a week-by-week basis. Below are a handful of ways to maximize your upside:
Tips to win at NFL DFS
1. Select your defense last: Defensive volatility is one of the most natural (and frustrating) parts of NFL DFS, so why prioritize it? Selecting your defense last ensures that you can prioritize the other positions with less volatility instead of sacrificing positional upside hoping that an expensive defense forces enough turnovers to make the pick worthwhile.
2. Safety versus upside: In cash games, you’re most certainly going to prefer the former, and that’s understandable. With that the case, in cash games, it makes sense to spend up for running backs with 20-touch floors and receivers with 10-plus targets in their realistic range of outcomes. Often, this also means playing a running back in your flex spot, as this provides a third avenue to elite volume. In tournaments, however, it makes sense to shoot for upside. This could mean spending down at your running back position and loading up on wide receivers with multiple-touchdown upside, even though they may not see 10-15 targets (i.e. Mike Evans).
3. Take advantage of injuries: This seems obvious, but many players galaxy-brain themselves out of the obvious far too often. While pivoting is a smart strategy in large-field tournaments, cash games and small single-entry tournaments are contests that you should be fine with eating good chalk. Is Dalvin Cook out Sunday in a game when the Vikings face off with the league-worst run defense? Alexander Mattison might make a ton of sense for the uptick in volume and safety relative to his price of that as a backup running back.
4. Targeting Konami Code upside: Komani Code is a popular term in fantasy football regarding quarterbacks that operate as “cheat codes,” given their rushing ability in addition to passing upside. These players offer far more upside than traditional pocket passers, especially on a site like DraftKings. Given the bonuses for both passing and rushing, you could find yourself getting a ceiling game out of Josh Allen and get an additional 3-6 points because of it.
5. Expand your stack: I hit on this briefly above, but it’s worth mentioning again. With most ownership flocking to a QB-WR or QB-WR-WR stack, it makes sense to stack the game as a whole if you’re scripting it to be high-scoring. Ideally, this could be QB-RB-WR-opposing WR, or mixing in a tight end to get different. While it may be uncomfortable at first to have upwards of five players in your lineup from the same game when there are typically 13-ish other games on the slate, game-stacking is a quick way to not only gain an edge on the field but also unlock as much correlated upside as possible.
6. Tight ends: Speaking of tight ends, it’s arguably the most volatile position outside of defense. In cash games, it makes sense to pay down at the position for a player capable of safely producing a 4-50-0 stat line, allowing you to allocate salary elsewhere. In tournaments, however, it can be contrarian to spend up at the position aiming for upside. If you get a 6-75-2 game out of Mark Andrews, your lineup will likely be far different from the majority of the field. The exception to this strategy is Travis Kelce, as his combination of floor and ceiling makes him an elite target in any format.
