Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Despite the lack of long-term financial support for NFL running backs, the Atlanta Falcons jumped on the opportunity to take Texas running back Bijan Robinson with the eighth overall pick in this year’s NFL Draft.
Robinson brings 4.46 speed and strong pass-catching skills to one of the league’s most run-heavy offenses. He totaled 1894 total yards and 20 touchdowns in his last season with the Longhorns. While it’s clear Robinson will be the centerpiece of the Falcons offense, will he find a way to beat his rushing yardage season-long prop?
Fortunately, FTN’s Kevin Adams has the answer!
Bijan Robinson Over 1,075.5 Rushing Yards
(-112, FanDuel Sportsbook)
Per Aaron Schatz’s adjusted line yards metric, Atlanta was fifth and third in running back yards per carry the past two seasons. The Falcons averaged 33 rush attempts per game in 2022, with unimpressive running backs such as Caleb Huntley and Avery Williams seeing a combined 98 attempts. The Falcons running backs totaled 450 times as a group, the most by any NFL team. While the Bears and Eagles were close to Atlanta in overall rushing attempts, a large majority came from their respective quarterbacks.
If Robinson gets a 65% rush share with Atlanta regressing down to just 400 running back carries, he still projects for 260 attempts. Even if Robinson misses a few games as a result of an injury and finishes with 225 carries (Tyler Allgeier had 210, Cordarrelle Patterson 144 last season), he should still beat this number easily. Using our FTN season-long projections, we have Robinson at 1,117.4 rushing yards. A review of recent first-round running backs in their rookie seasons makes us feel even better about Bijan getting 230-plus carries if he stays healthy.
- Ezekiel Elliott (322)
- Todd Gurley (229)
- Adrian Peterson (238)
- Saquon Barkley (260)
- Najee Harris (307)
The Falcons offensive line ranks third-best in our recent FTN rankings per Dan Fornek, solidifying an opportunity for the dynamic Robinson. This prop ranges from 1050.5 to 1099.5, so we will split the difference with the middle number as the best value. Let’s back the talent of Robinson, behind a great offensive line, in a run-heavy Atlanta attack.
