Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Multiple times each week, Brad Evans, in this space, will ramble on about whatever random, likely tequila-influenced fantasy football/betting thoughts are coursing through his often-moronic mind. Today’s topic: The cool-as-a-cucumber Cincinnati Kid.
Cool, calm and collected.
It’s a commonly used phrase to describe stoic leadership and performance under pressure.
And it applies perfectly to Cincinnati Bengals rookie QB Joe Burrow.
The last time the much-publicized quarterback was in the limelight he, with surgical precision, dissected Clemson’s robust defense with a barrage of needle-threading throws. The national title-earning effort, a 493-yard, six-total-TD blitzkrieg, capped off a historic season, one that saw the passer reset record books with 5,671 passing yards and an absurd 60:6 TD:INT split. Images of the Heisman winner puffing on a celebratory cigar rubber stamped his legend. His White House photo under the Father of the Constitution, James Madison, presumably after a filling meal of lukewarm Filet-O-Fish and soggy fries, was equally poetic.
Whether in a room or on the field, the No. 1 overall pick in April’s draft exudes a commanding and in control presence, a persona eerily similar to inevitable HOFer Aaron Rodgers. He’s unrattled in high-pressure situations, a future megastar who progresses through reads with the smoothness of a 10-year vet while delivering pinpoint passes whether on quick slants, 15-yard outs or nine routes. Last year, he ranked QB2 in adjusted completion percentage among all FBS QBs, tallied a nutty 12.5 air yards per attempt, set the pace in total air yards and logged a 122.9 or higher passer rating on every throw. Also an opportunistic rusher, he eclipsed 360 ground yards with 12 total touchdowns during his junior and senior years in Baton Rouge.
Unequivocally, Burrow isn’t the one-year wonder some have idiotically described. No, he’s a special, multi-tooled passer who’s about to take the fantasy world by storm.
Wunderkinds at quarterback were once anomalous in the NFL. Over the years a number of signal callers, like the aforementioned Rodgers or Steve McNair, were brought along slowly. Forced to wait in the wings and learn behind established veterans, they and their fantasy investors were forced to exercise patience. Other highly touted passers promptly thrown into the fire, Akili Smith, JaMarcus Russell, Marcus Mariota and Josh Rosen, to name a few, never panned out.
In recent seasons, however, a number of hyped prospects staved off ineptitude and immediately flourished. Cam Newton, Robert Griffin III, Andrew Luck, Dak Prescott, Russell Wilson and Kyler Murray each, out of the gate, posted starter-level numbers in 12-team leagues. Others, like Baker Mayfield in 2018, blossomed during stirring late-season runs and propelled believers to trophy-level heights. Installed wrinkles (e.g. RPO play) borrowed from the college game have made the transition to the pros easier for many.
Essentially, Burrow is this year’s Kyler.
During this unusual offseason, the youngster received high praise from Bengals OC Bill Callahan for his rapid playbook absorption and recall. Putting those learnings into practice, he’s reportedly way ahead of the curve, shredding Cincinnati’s secondary with backup wide receivers. By all accounts, he’s as advertised and then some. Yes, facing Bengals defenders is probably akin to matching wits with a middling Conference USA squad, but he’s likely to come out dealing Week 1 against the L.A. Chargers.
With a QB19 ADP and low TD thresholds at various sportsbooks (e.g. 21.5 at DraftKings), the kid will profit, and massively. Final totals in range of 3,900 passing yards, 325 rushing yards and 25-27 total touchdowns are reachable. Tyler Boyd, Joe Mixon and a hopefully healthy A.J. Green are notable weapons. Cincy’s projected leaky D is also a plus.
Those who stupidly fear the unknown are bound miss out on possibly the breakout QB of the 2020 fantasy football season.
Unflappable and enormously talented, Burrow is about to ball out.
