Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Underwhelming performances occur every season. Bust rates at WR1, right around 38% over the past decade, are the second-lowest of the major positions, but missteps do occur. Using ADP as a guide, this Noisey mouthpiece will attempt to project pitfalls to avoid. Ultimately, the vast majority will leave yolk on the face, but that my friends is what it means to be a member of #TeamHuevos. Below are my top LAMES at the wide receiver position:
Chris Godwin, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
(ADP: WR6, 21.4)
Similar to wind shifts, feelings toward a player can change in an instant. Featured in last year’s All-Mancrush piece, Godwin pulls the ultra-rare flame-to-lame move in consecutive seasons. And, before you ask, yes, David Montgomery is impervious to an identical designation.
With an emphasis on 12-personnel sets and a rejuvenated Rob Gronkowski on roster, the Bucs’ 2019 breakthrough could experience a production downturn. A dirty worker in the short-to-intermediate field, he could slice a sizable chunk off his 22.0% target share (8.5/game) from a season ago, many of those looks coming inside the 20. Keep in mind Godwin ranked WR50 in red-zone target share converting seven of his 24 total intended throws for touchdowns. Gronk, O.J. Howard and possibly Cameron Brate are sure to become the apple of Tom Brady’s eye in those situations. Repeating his nine end-zone dances from last season is a stretch.
Godwin is still a treasured wideout. He often vexed defensive coordinators, posting high marks against man and press coverages. Difficult to wrangle after the catch, he also ranked WR3 in YAC per reception (6.74). WR41 in catchable target percentage, he should see tighter spirals thrown in his general direction, but considering the potential TD reduction and possible lack of garbage time, a final line closer to 78-1,175-6 comes into view.
(See our full fantasy football ranks here.)
A.J. Brown, Tennessee Titans
(WR17, 41.5)
Similar to your Wendy’s carved buddy holding a plank for 60 seconds, Brown’s numbers from his sensational rookie season simply aren’t sustainable. He’s a classic lapse candidate. All the signs are there.
Reminiscent of Andre Johnson in terms of size, speed and pythons, Brown was one of fantasy football’s rookie breakouts a season ago. The first-year rocket smoothly transitioned and immediately transformed into a nuclear downfield weapon. On 84 targets he hauled in 52 passes for 1,051 yards and eight touchdowns. His resulting 20.2 yards per catch, WR1 standing in YAC per reception (8.88) and 13.6-yard average depth of target jolted the competition.
His pure talents are unquestionable, but with a low target yield, particularly inside the red zone (16.7%), one wonders if his production is sustainable. Tennessee, after all, is a run-heavy offense built on the legs of Clydesdale Derrick Henry and not the arm of Ryan Tannehill. To justify his WR16 ADP, the sophomore will have to again operate at peak efficiency. As a betting man, those odds seem long. Regression, not progression, is the most likely outcome. A finish south of 1,000 yards with 5-7 TDs is believable.
Stefon Diggs, Buffalo Bills
(WR26, 62.4)
Social media distortions are ever-present. Without a proper sarcasm filter or ability to decipher context, consumers read and misread posts regularly. Case in point, there’s no way the Bills’ social staff were serious about this defender-less Josh Allen-to-Diggs camp connection. No chance. The QB, without any pressure to negotiate, still nearly overthrew his shiny new toy.
High hilarity.
Misconnections could be an unfortunate theme for the former Viking this season. Yes, Allen’s vertical contributions should rise, but it doesn’t guarantee the former Viking will continue to plunge axes into the fantasy opposition, not when a quarterback with the accuracy of an inebriated Blake Bortles is hurling misfires in your general direction.
Whether facing man, zone or press coverage last season, Diggs flourished. He posted excellent success rates in each category. But the downgrade from Kirk Cousins (QB4 in adjusted completion percentage in ‘19) to Allen (QB30) is a major red flag. Point blank, it’s highly unlikely the receiver will crack the top 20 among receivers in catchable target percentage for the second straight year. Buffalo’s conservative nature (seventh-lowest pass percentage in ‘19) also doesn’t do the wideout any favors.
When the sun sets on 2020 (Add fire tornadoes to the endless list of cataclysms), Diggs lands outside the position’s top-30 in 12-team, 0.5 PPR formats. Expect final totals in the range of 65-70 receptions, 925-975 yards with 5-7 TDs.
